Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans psychologist, specializes in treating patients who are agoraphobic (i.e., afraid to leavetheir homes). The following table indicates how many patients Dr. Fok has seen each year for the past 10 years. It alsoindicates what the robbery rate was in New Orleans during the same year:YearNumber of PatientsRobbery Rate per1,000 Population13758.323433414160.6 73.0 75.754281.1The simple linear regression equation that shows the best relationship between the number of patients and year is(round your responses to three decimal places):ŷ=+xwhere y = Dependent Variable and x = Independent Variable.678910565853596089.0 101.5 94.8 104.1 117.2X

Linear Regression Year No. of Patients ( X ) Robbery rate ( Y ) 1 37 58.3…

Answered: Dr. Lillian Fok, a New Orleans…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter4: Linear Programming Models

Section4.8: Data Envelopment Analysis (dea)

Problem 43P

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The eTech Company is a fairly recent entry in the electronic device area. The company competes with Apple. Samsung, and other well-known companies in the manufacturing and sales of personal handheld devices. Although eTech recognizes that it is a niche player and will likely remain so in the foreseeable future, it is trying to increase its current small market share in this huge competitive market. Jim Simons, VP of Production, and Catherine Dolans, VP of Marketing, have been discussing the possible addition of a new product to the companys current (rather limited) product line. The tentative name for this new product is ePlayerX. Jim and Catherine agree that the ePlayerX, which will feature a sleeker design and more memory, is necessary to compete successfully with the big boys, but they are also worried that the ePlayerX could cannibalize sales of their existing productsand that it could even detract from their bottom line. They must eventually decide how much to spend to develop and manufacture the ePlayerX and how aggressively to market it. Depending on these decisions, they must forecast demand for the ePlayerX, as well as sales for their existing products. They also realize that Apple. Samsung, and the other big players are not standing still. These competitors could introduce their own new products, which could have very negative effects on demand for the ePlayerX. The expected timeline for the ePlayerX is that development will take no more than a year to complete and that the product will be introduced in the market a year from now. Jim and Catherine are aware that there are lots of decisions to make and lots of uncertainties involved, but they need to start somewhere. To this end. Jim and Catherine have decided to base their decisions on a planning horizon of four years, including the development year. They realize that the personal handheld device market is very fluid, with updates to existing products occurring almost continuously. However, they believe they can include such considerations into their cost, revenue, and demand estimates, and that a four-year planning horizon makes sense. In addition, they have identified the following problem parameters. (In this first pass, all distinctions are binary: low-end or high-end, small-effect or large-effect, and so on.) In the absence of cannibalization, the sales of existing eTech products are expected to produce year I net revenues of 10 million, and the forecast of the annual increase in net revenues is 2%. The ePIayerX will be developed as either a low-end or a high-end product, with corresponding fixed development costs (1.5 million or 2.5 million), variable manufacturing costs ( 100 or 200). and selling prices (150 or 300). The fixed development cost is incurred now, at the beginning of year I, and the variable cost and selling price are assumed to remain constant throughout the planning horizon. The new product will be marketed either mildly aggressively or very aggressively, with corresponding costs. The costs of a mildly aggressive marketing campaign are 1.5 million in year 1 and 0.5 million annually in years 2 to 4. For a very aggressive campaign, these costs increase to 3.5 million and 1.5 million, respectively. (These marketing costs are not part of the variable cost mentioned in the previous bullet; they are separate.) Depending on whether the ePlayerX is a low-end or high-end produce the level of the ePlayerXs cannibalization rate of existing eTech products will be either low (10%) or high (20%). Each cannibalization rate affects only sales of existing products in years 2 to 4, not year I sales. For example, if the cannibalization rate is 10%, then sales of existing products in each of years 2 to 4 will be 10% below their projected values without cannibalization. A base case forecast of demand for the ePlayerX is that in its first year on the market, year 2, demand will be for 100,000 units, and then demand will increase by 5% annually in years 3 and 4. This base forecast is based on a low-end version of the ePlayerX and mildly aggressive marketing. It will be adjusted for a high-end will product, aggressive marketing, and competitor behavior. The adjustments with no competing product appear in Table 2.3. The adjustments with a competing product appear in Table 2.4. Each adjustment is to demand for the ePlayerX in each of years 2 to 4. For example, if the adjustment is 10%, then demand in each of years 2 to 4 will be 10% lower than it would have been in the base case. Demand and units sold are the samethat is, eTech will produce exactly what its customers demand so that no inventory or backorders will occur. Table 2.3 Demand Adjustments When No Competing Product Is Introduced Table 2.4 Demand Adjustments When a Competing Product Is Introduced Because Jim and Catherine are approaching the day when they will be sharing their plans with other company executives, they have asked you to prepare an Excel spreadsheet model that will answer the many what-if questions they expect to be asked. Specifically, they have asked you to do the following: You should enter all of the given data in an inputs section with clear labeling and appropriate number formatting. If you believe that any explanations are required, you can enter them in text boxes or cell comments. In this section and in the rest of the model, all monetary values (other than the variable cost and the selling price) should be expressed in millions of dollars, and all demands for the ePlayerX should be expressed in thousands of units. You should have a scenario section that contains a 0/1 variable for each of the binary options discussed here. For example, one of these should be 0 if the low-end product is chosen and it should be 1 if the high-end product is chosen. You should have a parameters section that contains the values of the various parameters listed in the case, depending on the values of the 0/1 variables in the previous bullet For example, the fixed development cost will be 1.5 million or 2.5 million depending on whether the 0/1 variable in the previous bullet is 0 or 1, and this can be calculated with a simple IF formula. You can decide how to implement the IF logic for the various parameters. You should have a cash flows section that calculates the annual cash flows for the four-year period. These cash flows include the net revenues from existing products, the marketing costs for ePlayerX, and the net revenues for sales of ePlayerX (To calculate these latter values, it will help to have a row for annual units sold of ePlayerX.) The cash flows should also include depreciation on the fixed development cost, calculated on a straight-line four-year basis (that is. 25% of the cost in each of the four years). Then, these annual revenues/costs should be summed for each year to get net cash flow before taxes, taxes should be calculated using a 32% tax rate, and taxes should be subtracted and depreciation should be added back in to get net cash flows after taxes. (The point is that depreciation is first subtracted, because it is not taxed, but then it is added back in after taxes have been calculated.) You should calculate the company's NPV for the four-year horizon using a discount rate of 10%. You can assume that the fixed development cost is incurred now. so that it is not discounted, and that all other costs and revenues are incurred at the ends of the respective years. You should accompany all of this with a line chart with three series: annual net revenues from existing products; annual marketing costs for ePlayerX; and annual net revenues from sales of ePlayerX. Once all of this is completed. Jim and Catherine will have a powerful tool for presentation purposes. By adjusting the 0/1 scenario variables, their audience will be able to see immediately, both numerically and graphically, the financial consequences of various scenarios.
This problem is based on Motorolas online method for choosing suppliers. Suppose Motorola solicits bids from five suppliers for eight products. The list price for each product and the quantity of each product that Motorola needs to purchase during the next year are listed in the file P06_93.xlsx. Each supplier has submitted the percentage discount it will offer on each product. These percentages are also listed in the file. For example, supplier 1 offers a 7% discount on product 1 and a 30% discount on product 2. The following considerations also apply: There is an administrative cost of 5000 associated with setting up a suppliers account. For example, if Motorola uses three suppliers, it incurs an administrative cost of 15,000. To ensure reliability, no supplier can supply more than 80% of Motorolas demand for any product. A supplier must supply an integer amount of each product it supplies. Develop a linear integer model to help Motorola minimize the sum of its purchase and administrative costs.
You want to take out a 450,000 loan on a 20-year mortgage with end-of-month payments. The annual rate of interest is 3%. Twenty years from now, you will need to make a 50,000 ending balloon payment. Because you expect your income to increase, you want to structure the loan so at the beginning of each year, your monthly payments increase by 2%. a. Determine the amount of each years monthly payment. You should use a lookup table to look up each years monthly payment and to look up the year based on the month (e.g., month 13 is year 2, etc.). b. Suppose payment each month is to be the same, and there is no balloon payment. Show that the monthly payment you can calculate from your spreadsheet matches the value given by the Excel PMT function PMT(0.03/12,240, 450000,0,0).
The new Chief Operating Officer (COO) of Lee Ching Chemical Company, MaxChing, has found that the firm has been dumping its toxic waste into the local riverfor the last four years and falsifying information to officials about the amounts ofalleged cancer-causing materials in the waste. The plant overseer claims there is noevidence that the waste will cause cancer. Besides, within a hundred kilometersdownriver, there are only a few fishing villages. If the company had to treat thesubstance to neutralize its potentially harmful effects and transport it to a legaldumpsite, the operating costs of the company would rise to a level that could renderthe company uncompetitive. When the organization loses its competitive advantage,five thousand local workers can become unemployed and the economy of that towncould collapse. Question: If you were the COO, what would you do? Why?
A rice importer has three sources: Thailand, Vietnam, and China. Unfortunately, the annual amount of rice harvested is heavily dependent upon the amount of rainfall during the growing season. The tables below show probabilities and prices for wet, dry, and normal growing seasons. Rice is sold in tons. PROBABILITIES Wet Dry Normal Thailand 0.5 0.2 0.3 Vietnam 0.6 0.3 0.1 China 0.4 0.4 0.2 Price per Pound ($) Wet Dry Normal Thailand 0.95 1.10 1.00 Vietnam 0.85 1.20 0.98 China 0.90 1.15 1.05 This is a maximization problem. True or False?
A rice importer has three sources: Thailand, Vietnam, and China. Unfortunately, the annual amount of rice harvested is heavily dependent upon the amount of rainfall during the growing season. The tables below show probabilities and prices for wet, dry, and normal growing seasons. Rice is sold in tons. PROBABILITIES Wet Dry Normal Thailand 0.5 0.2 0.3 Vietnam 0.6 0.3 0.1 China 0.4 0.4 0.2 Price per Pound ($) Wet Dry Normal Thailand 0.95 1.10 1.00 Vietnam 0.85 1.20 0.98 China 0.90 1.15 1.05 This is a maximization problem. A)True B)False
A motion picture industry analyst is studying movies based on epic novels. The following data were obtained for 10 Hollywood movies made in the past five years. Each movie was based on an epic novel. For these data, x1 = first-year box office receipts of the movie, x2 = total production costs of the movie, x3 = total promotional costs of the movie, and x4 = total book sales prior to movie release. All units are in millions of dollars. x1 x2 x3 x4 85.1 8.5 5.1 4.7 106.3 12.9 5.8 8.8 50.2 5.2 2.1 15.1 130.6 10.7 8.4 12.2 54.8 3.1 2.9 10.6 30.3 3.5 1.2 3.5 79.4 9.2 3.7 9.7 91.0 9.0 7.6 5.9 135.4 15.1 7.7 20.8 89.3 10.2 4.5 7.9 a) Suppose Hollywood is planning a new epic movie with projected box office sales x1 = 100 million and production costs x2 = 12 million. The book on which the movie is based had sales of x4 = 9.2 million. Forecast the dollar amount (in millions) that should be budgeted for promotion costs x3 and find an 80% confidence interval for your…
An investment advisor at RMC Financial Services wants to develop a model that can be used to allocate investment funds among four alternatives: stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and cash. For the coming investment period, the company developed estimates of the annual rate of return and the associated risk for each alternative. Risk is measured between 0 and 1, with higher risk value denoting more volatility and thus more uncertainty. The estimated rate of return for stocks is 10%, for bonds 3%, for mutual funds 4%, and cash 1%. The risk index for the stocks, bonds, and mutual funds investment is estimated as 0.8, 0.2, and 0.3, respectively. Because cash is held in money market funds, the annual return is lower, but it carries essentially no risk (i.e., risk index is zero for cash investment). The objective is to determine the portion of funds allocated to each investment alternatives in order to maximize the total annual return for the portfolio subject to the risk level the client is…
Kidnly answer the following and include steps: Financial planner Minnie Margin has a substantial number of clients who wish to own a mutual fund portfolio that matches, as a whole, the performance of the Russell 2000 index. Her task is to determine what proportion of the portfolio should be invested in each of the five mutual funds listed below so that the portfolio most closely mimics the performance of the Russell 2000 index. Annual Returns Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 International Stock 22.37 26.73 4.86 2.17 Large-Cap Value 15.48 19.64 11.50 -5.25 Mid-Cap Value 17.42 20.07 -4.97 -1.69 Small-Cap Growth 23.18 12.36 3.25 3.81 Short-Term Bond 9.26 8.81 6.15 4.04 Russell 2000 Index 20 22 8 2 a. Write out the (non-linear) program that would produce a portfolio that most closely mimics the performance of the Russell 2000 Index. b. Use Excel's Solver with "GRG Non-Linear" as the solution algorithm:…
An investment advisor at Shore Financial Services wants to develop a model that can be used to allocate investment funds among four alternatives: stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and cash. For the coming investment period, the company developed estimates of the annual rate of return and the associated risk for each alternative. Risk is measured using an index between 0 and 1, with higher risk values denoting more volatility and thus more uncertainty. Investment Annual Rate of Return (%) Risk Stocks. 10 0.8 Bonds 3 0.2 Mutual funds 4 0.3 Cash 1 0.0 Because cash is held in a money market fund, the annual…
A rice importer has three sources: Thailand, Vietnam, and China. Unfortunately, the annual amount of rice harvested is heavily dependent upon the amount of rainfall during the growing season. The tables below show probabilities and prices for wet, dry, and normal growing seasons. Rice is sold in tons. PROBABILITIES Wet Dry Normal Thailand 0.5 0.2 0.3 Vietnam 0.6 0.3 0.1 China 0.4 0.4 0.2 Price per Pound ($) Wet Wet Dry Normal Thailand 0.95 1.10 1.00 Vietnam 0.85 1.20 0.98 China 0.90 1.15 1.05 This is a maximization problem. A)True B)Flase

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