Expected 1-Year Interest Rates 2020 5.00% 2021 6.00% 2022 7.00% 2023 8.00% The aim of this question is to show you how the government (more precisely, the Fed) can change long-term interest rates by changing people's expectations about future short-term interest rates. Such a policy is called forward guidance. The above table shows the expectations of bond market investors about future 1-year interest rates. For example, the interest rate on the 1-year bond in 2020 is 5.00% (this one is known with certainty in 2020). The market expects the interest rate on the 1-year bond in 2021 to be 6.00 percent, and so on. So currently: Interest rate on the 2-year bond in 2020 = percent Interest rate on the 3-year bond in 2020 = percent Interest rate on the 4-year bond in 2020 = percent The Fed announces that beginning in 2022 it will keep the 1-year interest rate at 6.00% for every subsequent year. Assume that people believe that the Fed will be successful in achieving this goal. As a result: Interest rate on the 2-year bond in 2020 = percent Interest rate on the 3-year bond in 2020 = percent Interest rate on the 4-year bond in 2020 - percent

Expected 1-Year Interest Rates 2020 5.00% 2021 6.00% 2022 7.00% 2023 8.00% The aim of this question is to show you how the government (more precisely, the Fed) can change long-term interest rates by changing people's expectations about future short-term interest rates. Such a policy is called forward guidance. The above table shows the expectations of bond market investors about future 1-year interest rates. For example, the interest rate on the 1-year bond in 2020 is 5.00% (this one is known with certainty in 2020). The market expects the interest rate on the 1-year bond in 2021 to be 6.00 percent, and so on. So currently: Interest rate on the 2-year bond in 2020 = percent Interest rate on the 3-year bond in 2020 = percent Interest rate on the 4-year bond in 2020 = percent The Fed announces that beginning in 2022 it will keep the 1-year interest rate at 6.00% for every subsequent year. Assume that people believe that the Fed will be successful in achieving this goal. As a result: Interest rate on the 2-year bond in 2020 = percent Interest rate on the 3-year bond in 2020 = percent Interest rate on the 4-year bond in 2020 - percent

Principles of Economics, 7th Edition (MindTap Course List)

7th Edition

ISBN:9781285165875

Author:N. Gregory Mankiw

Publisher:N. Gregory Mankiw

Chapter34: The Influence Of Monetary And Fiscal Policy On Aggregate Demand

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 11PA

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Assume that it is January 1, 2003. The rate of inflation is expected to be 4 percent thought 2003. However, increased government deficits and renewed vigor in the economy are then expected to push information rates higher. Investors expect the inflation rate to be 5 percent in 2004, 6 per percent cent in 2005, and 7 percent in 2006. The real risk-free rate, k*, is expected to remain at 2 percent over the next 5years. Assume that on maturity risk premiums are required on bonds with 5 years of less to maturity. The current interest rate on 5 year T-bonds is 8 Percent. What is the average expected inflation rate over the next 4 year? What should be the prevailing interest rate on 4-year T-bond? What is the implied expected inflation rate in 2007, or Year 5, give that Treasury bonds which mature in the year yield 8 percent?
Assume that the real risk-free rate is r* = 2% and the average expected inflation rate is 3% for each future year. The DRP and LP for Bond X are each 1%, and the applicable MRP is 2%. What is Bond X’s interest rate? Is Bond X (1) a Treasury bond or a corporate bond and (2) more likely to have a 3-month or a 20-year maturity? SHOW WORK AND USE FINANCIAL CALCULATOR
Over the next three years, the expected path of 1-year interst rates is 4,1, and 1 percent. Today you buy $1 of one-year bond and when it matures you plan to use the money you receive to reinvest in one-year bond again. Then your expected rate of return for this $1 investment is _____% (round to the nearest integer). If the expectations theory of the term structure is true, then your expected rate of return for buying a two-year bond today is ____%, which implies that the current interest rate on 2-year bond must be ____%
A9. Assuming that the expectations theory is the correct theory of the term structure, calculate the interest rates in the term structure for maturities of one to five years, and plot the resulting yield curves for the following paths of one- year interest rates over the next five years: a. 5%, 6%, 7%, 6%, 5% b. 5%, 4%, 3%, 4%, 5%. c. How would your yield curves change if people preferred shorter-term bonds over longer- term bonds?
Under the Pure Expectations Theory, if these investors believe that interest rates will rise in the near future, a. Two statements are correct. b. they will make up for the lower short-term yield when the short-term securities mature, and they reinvest at a higher rate (if interest rates rise) at maturity. c. All statements are correct. d. the large supply of funds in the short-term market will force annualized yields down, while the reduced supply of long-term funds forces long-term yields up. e. they will invest their funds mostly in the short-term risk-free securities so that they can soon reinvest their funds in securities that offer higher yields after interest rates increase. f. their actions cause funds to flow into the short-term market and away from the long-term market. g. Three statements are correct.
1. f the current interest rate on a 1-year bond is 2.80% while market participants expect a 1-year interest rate of 1.30% next year, then the expectations theory predicts that the interest rate on a 2-year bond will be ___ %: 2. If the current 1-year interest rate is 3% and the current interest rate on a 2-year bond is 4%, what is the expected 1-year rate starting a year from today? 3. You observe that currently, a 1-year bond has an interest rate of 3.00% while a 2-year bond has an interest rate of 3.00%. This means that, according to the expectations theory (no liquidity premium), market participants expect the 1-year interest rate in one year from now to be ___%:
7. Determinants of market interest rates Some characteristics of the determinants of nominal interest rates are listed as follows. Identify the components (determinants) and the symbols associated with each characteristic: Characteristic Component Symbol This is the premium that reflects the risk associated with changes in interest rates for a long-term security. It changes over time, depending on the expected rate of return on productive assets exchanged among market participants and people’s time preferences for consumption. This premium is added when a security lacks marketability, because it cannot be bought and sold quickly without losing value. It is calculated by adding the inflation premium to r*. Over the past several years, Germany, Japan, and Switzerland have had lower interest rates than the United States due to lower values of this premium. It is based on the bond’s rating; the higher the…
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The demand D (in billions of £) for a bond with coupon rate 5% and face value FV = 1000, and two years to maturity as a function of its price P is D = 4000 − 2P. The supply in (billions of £)as a function of the price of the bond is S = 2P + 400. b) Suppose that the yield to maturity of the bond is i = 0.05. What is the quantity demanded/supplied at this interest rate? What happens to the demand/supply of the bond as the interest rate increases? Explain why. c) What is the equilibrium interest rate? d) Suppose that the bond trades at premium. Is there excess demand or supply? Explain. e) There is a business cycle contraction, so both supply and demand shifts. After the shift, the new demand curve is given by: D = 4000 + X − 2P , whereas the new supply curve is S = 2P + 200. For which values of X will the interest increase/decrease? Which values of X are in line with empirical data?
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Over the next three years, the expected path of 1 year interest rates is 1, 2, and 1 percent, and the 1-year, 2-year, and 3- year term premia are 0, 0.2. and 0.5 percent, respectively. Using the information, if the expectations theory of the term structure is true, then your expected rate of return for buying a two-year bond today over the next two-year is ____% (round to the nearest integer).
Please explain the correct answer(s). An investor wants to be able to buy 4 percent more goods and services in the future in order to induce her to invest today. During the investment period, prices are expected to rise by 2 percent. Which statement(s) below is/are true? 1.I. 4 percent is the desired real risk-free interest rate. 2.II. 6 percent is the approximate nominal rate of interest required. 3.III. 2 percent is the expected inflation rate over the period. A) I only B) II only C) III only D) I and II only E) I, II, and III