Explain the value of seasonal indices in forecasting. How areseasonal patterns different from cyclical patterns?
Q: Explain how do we measure accuracy of a forecasting model
A: We utilize the following criteria to determine a prediction model's efficiency:
Q: Explain why forecasting devices such as moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential…
A: The average is going The prediction is increased and n is flat, but less susceptible. It provides an…
Q: Explain the trade off of responsiveness in a time series forecasting system
A: In return for improvements on other issues, Tradeoff is a situation-based technique that entails…
Q: Explain why it's important to keep track of forecasting errors.
A: For a time series or other phenomenon of interest, forecast error is the difference between the…
Q: Explain when to use of a time series forecasting techniques and what assumption are made ?
A: The statistical procedures perform statistical analysis on historical data to forecast the…
Q: Explain what are the forecasting process principles?
A: Forecasting is the science of forecasting what will occur in the future based on past and current…
Q: What are the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as opposed to…
A: Stationarity: The first assumption is that the series of data points are stationary. The series is…
Q: Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based on the following…
A: Since we only answer up to 3 sub-parts, we’ll answer the first 3. Please resubmit the question and…
Q: Describe the different forecasting methods and provide an example of when each is most applicable.
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: When should time series forecasting techniques be used?
A: The statistical data and, as a consequence, the projected features are analyzed using statistical…
Q: What are ways of managing a poor forecast?
A: A bad forecast presupposes that there has been a mismatch between the demand and supply as a result…
Q: In order to increase the responsiveness (volatility) of following forecast models, what can you do?…
A: In order to increase the responsiveness of the forecast model using exponential smoothing, we need…
Q: Explain when to use a time series forecasting techniques
A: The statistical techniques are applied to past records and hence to the projected variables.…
Q: State and describe the steps involved in developing a forecasting system
A: To be determined: the steps involved in developing a forecasting system
Q: List the various type of analytical tools and methods used in forecasting?
A: Numerous statistical approaches are used to examine the data, which enables the data to be…
Q: Discuss when is time series forecasting used?
A: Forecasting is a strategy for forecasting future events using historical data and knowledge.
Q: Identify the major differences between qualitative and quantitative forecasting.
A: Forecasting can be defined as the technique which predicts the future information based on…
Q: Describe in detail what is a time series forecasting model ?
A: Forecasting is a type of prediction approach that can be used to make future judgments based on past…
Q: What method would you choose of forecasting technique, which requires subjective inputs obtained…
A: Forecasting is technique which uses past data in order to predict future trends. It is mainly used…
Q: Explain four qualitative forecasting techniques ?
A: Planning refers to the process of assessing demand for the goal of future supply chain and…
Q: Types of Forecasts that might be needed in IKEA
A: Let’s first understand the meaning of Forecasting and types of Forecasting. Forecasting can be…
Q: Discuss the time horizons for doing forecasting, and also identify 2 activities that are forecasted…
A: Forecasting is the strategy of anticipating what will be occurring soon it is utilized by numerical…
Q: What are the issues associated with qualitative forecasting, and how are these overcome? Provide…
A: Qualitative forecasting is a strategy for making forecasts about an organization's funds that…
Q: Describe the ASSOCIATIVE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES?
A: Associative forecasting is the technique of forecasting which uses several independent variables as…
Q: Explain the trade off between responsiveness and consistency in a time series forecasting system?
A: Tradeoff A tradeoff is a decision-making technique that involves sacrificing quality, quantity, or…
Q: Justify the trade-off between responsiveness and consistency in a time-series forecasting system.
A: TradeoffTradeoff is a situational decision taken approach, that involves diminishing quality,…
Q: exponential smoothing superior to moving averages
A: Remarkable smoothing is a general guideline method for smoothing time arrangement information…
Q: Briefly mention the five characteristics of data patterns in time series method of forecasting.
A: Time series forecasting happens when making a scientific projection based on documented or…
Q: Describe when to use of a time series forecasting techniques and what assumption are made?
A: Statistical approaches are used to forecast variables by analysing historical data. Forecasts are…
Q: An example of the Quantitative Method of forecasting is
A: Businesses and salespeople can use quantitative forecasting, an objective, data-based process, to…
Q: Explain the Principles for the Forecasting Process?
A: There are many forecasting models and they differ in degree of complexity and amount of the data…
Q: mon forecasting techniques.
A: It is possible to describe forecasting as a method of making predictions about the future based on…
Q: Write from your understanding the meaning of forecasting, forecasting time horizons, Seven Steps in…
A: Forecasting is a procedure that utilizations verifiable information as contributions to make…
Q: What are the major consequences of accurate forecasting? explain
A: Forecasting is defined as a process of developing predictions based on the past and…
Q: Discuss the basic assumptions made when using time series forecasting techniques as apposed to…
A: Time series forecasting fundamental assumptions:
Q: Explain when is time series forecasting used ?
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future events based on previous data and information.
Q: Generate forecasts for data with diff erent patterns, such as level, trend, and seasonality and…
A: Solution Introduction with Generate Forecasting for data Forecasting is a logical extension of the…
Q: What is the concept of seasonality? How do we forecast based on seasonal data?
A: Seasonality of time series data refers to the phenomenon of recurrent up and down periods in series…
Q: Outline the steps in the forecasting process.
A: Forecasting is the process of identifying the demand accurately for future production planning and…
Q: State and explain the weakness of standard forecasting technique in forecasting approaches
A: To be determined: the weakness of standard forecasting technique
Q: State and explain the value of seasonala indices in forecasting and how are seasonal patterns…
A: To be determined: State and explain the value of seasonal indices in forecasting and how are…
Q: Give a proper explanation of what is meant by the adaptive forecasting
A: To be determined: a proper explanation of what is meant by the adaptive forecasting
Q: Explain why such forecasting devices as moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential…
A: Forecasting is the anticipating the future demand considering the historical data. Following are the…
Explain the value of seasonal indices in
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
- The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
- What forecasting techniques are used in the management of technology and innovation?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
- The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?