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- A manufacturer of entertainment centers uses the completion of new homes as part of their demand forecast. They consider that for every five homes that cost over $300,000 in the city, they make one sale. For every 20 new homes that cost over $150,000 but less than $300,000 in the city, they make one sale. Their projected demand for the future period, before they consider home sales, is for six entertainment centers. They now receive home figures of ten new homes of over $300,000 and 40 new homes of $150,000-$300,000. What should their new forecast be?Identify and briefly describe the two general forecasting approaches.Name two coincident indicators used in forecasting
- The price for cigarettes sold by Big Tobacco Co Ltd was6.00 per packet in March 2018. During the month of March, the consumption of cigarettes was 1000 packets. However, the Board of Directors of Big Tobacco Co Ltd decided to increase the price by 25% during the month of April. As a manager, you noted that the price elasticity of demand was 0.8. As a manager of Big Tobacco Co Ltd: Advise your management of the strategy that could be adopted by your firm to maintain sales. Also, advise your government on recommended interventions in the cigarette market.Savings-Mart (a chain of discount department stores) sells patio and lawn furniture. Sales are seasonal, with higher sales during the spring and summer quarters and lower sales during the fall and winter quarters. The company developed the following quarterly sales forecasting model: Y t=8.25+0.125t2.75D1t+3.50D3t where Y t=predictedsales(million)inquartert 8.25=quarterlysales(million)whent=0 t=timeperiod(quarter)wherethefourthquarterof2002=0,firstquarterof2003=1,secondquarterof2003=2,... D1t={1forfirst-quarterobservations0otherwiseD2t={1forsecond-quarterobservations0otherwiseD3t={1forthird-quarterobservations0otherwise Forecast Savings-Marts sales of patio and lawn furniture for each quarter of 2010.Bell Greenhouses has estimated its monthly demand for potting soil to be the following: N=400+4X where N=monthlydemandforbagsofpottingsoil X=timeperiodsinmonths(March2006=0) Assume this trend factor is expected to remain stable in the foreseeable future. The following table contains the monthly seasonal adjustment factors, which have been estimated using actual sales data from the past five years: Forecast Bell Greenhouses demand for potting soil in March, June, August, and December 2007. If the following table shows the forecasted and actual potting soil sales by Bell Greenhouses for April in five different years, determine the seasonal adjustment factor to be used in making an April 2008 forecast.
- KkwSuppose that you work for a U.S. senator who is contemplating writing a bill that would put a national sales tax in place. Because the tax would be levied on the sales revenue of retail stores, the senator has asked you to prepare a forecast of retail store sales for year 8, based on data from year 1 through year 7. The data are: (c1p2) Year Retail Store Sales 1 $1,225 2 1,285 3 1,359 4 1,392 5 1,443 6 1,474 7 1,467 54 Chapter One a. Use the first naive forecasting model presented in this chapter to prepare a forecast of retail store sales for each year from 2 through 8. b. Prepare a time-series graph of the actual and forecast values of retail store sales for the entire period. (You will not have a forecast for year 1 or an actual value for year 8.) c. Calculate the root-mean-squared error for your forecast series using the values for year 2 through year 7. 3. Use the second naive forecasting model presented in this chapter to answer parts (a) through (c) of Exercise 2. Use P 0.2 in…The price for cigarettes sold by Big Tobacco Co Ltd was 6.00 per packet in March 2018. During the month of March, the consumption of cigarettes was 1000 packets. However, the Board of Directors of Big Tobacco Co Ltd decided to increase the price by 25% during the month of April. As a manager you noted that price elasticity of demand was 0.8. As a manager Big Tobacco Co Ltd: As a manager Big Tobacco Co Ltd store advise your management of the strategy that could be adopted by your firm to maintain sales
- The price for cigarettes sold by Big Tobacco Co Ltd was6.00 per packet in March 2018. During the month of March, the consumption of cigarettes was 1000 packets. However, the Board of Directors of Big Tobacco Co Ltd decided to increase the price by 25% during the month of April. As a manager you noted that price elasticity of demand was 0.8. As a manager Big Tobacco Co Ltd: Advise your management ofthe strategy that could be adopted by your firm to maintain sales. Also, advise your government on recommended interventions in the cigarette market.The price for cigarettes sold by Big Tobacco Co Ltd was6.00 per packet in March 2018. During the month of March, the consumption of cigarettes was 1000 packets. However, the Board of Directors of Big Tobacco Co Ltd decided to increase the price by 25% during the month of April. As a manager you noted that price elasticity of demand was 0.8. As a manager Big Tobacco Co Ltd: Advise your management ofthe strategy that could be adopted by your firm to maintain sales.A researcher has a sample of 6 annual observations {94, 104, 102, 99, 111 and 107} for the CPI in country Z for the period 2015 to 2020, and wants to forecast CPI for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. The researcher uses 3 different forecasting models: A, B and C. Model A is an AR(1) model with no drift and with an estimated autoregressive coefficient = 0.7. Model B is a MA(1) model with no constant and with an estimated MA coefficient = -0.4 (note the minus !). Model C is a random walk model with no drift. The error terms over the 2015-2020 period were estimated to have the values: {3, -1, 2, 4, -3, 1}. a. Compute the 2021, 2022 and 2023 forecasted values for the consumer price index based on the three models. Show the formulas and the details of your calculations, and explain all the related symbols. b. Suppose that the actual values of the CPI over the 2021, 2022 and 2023 were {108, 114, 105}. Calculate the Root mean square error of the three model forecasts over the 2021-2023…