FORECASTING Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Yarena Supply CO. over the past 13 months are as follows: Sales in P1,000 Month Sales in P1,000 Month 11 January 14 August 14 February 17 September 15 March 12 October 10 April 14 November 15 May 16 December 17 June 11 January 11 July Required suing a moving average with three periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for next February?

FORECASTING Sales of industrial vacuum cleaners at Yarena Supply CO. over the past 13 months are as follows: Sales in P1,000 Month Sales in P1,000 Month 11 January 14 August 14 February 17 September 15 March 12 October 10 April 14 November 15 May 16 December 17 June 11 January 11 July Required suing a moving average with three periods, determine the demand for vacuum cleaners for next February?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 46P

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Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?
Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
Eight Glasses A Day: The EGAD Bottling Company has decided to introduce a new line of premium bottled water that will include several designer flavors. Marketing manager Georgianna is predicting an upturn in demand based on the new offerings and the increased public awareness of the health benefits of drinking more water. She has prepared aggregate forecasts for the next six months, as shown, Month May June July Aug Sep Oct Total Forecast 50 60 70 90 80 70 420 Production manager Mark Mercer, has developed the following information. (Note: Costs are in thousands of dollars). Regular production cost: $1 per tankload Regular production capacity: 60 tankloads Overtime production cost: $1.6 per tankload Subcontracting cost: $1.8 per tankload Holding cost: $2 per tankload per month Back ordering cost: $5 per month per tankload Beginning inventory: 0 units Among the strategies being considered are: 1. Level production supplemented by up to 10 tank loads a month from overtime 2. A…
Rosa's Italian restaurant wants to develop forecasts of daily demand for the next week. The restaurant is closed on Mondays and experiences a seasonal pattern for the other six days of the week. Mario, the manager, has collected information on the number of customers served each day for the past two weeks. If Mario expects total demand for next week to be around 336, what is the forecast for each day of next week? (Round intermediate calculations to 4 decimal places, e.g. 1.2645 and final answers to 1 decimal place, e.g. 15.2.)
Room registrations in the Toronto Towers Plaza Hotelhave been recorded for the past 9 years. To project futureoccupancy, management would like to determine the math-ematical trend of guest registration. This estimate willhelp the hotel determine whether future expansion will beneeded. Given the following time-series data, develop aregression equation relating registrations to time (e.g., atrend equation). Then forecast year 11 registrations. Roomregistrations are in the thousands:
5. Demand for patient surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past fewyears, as seen in the following table. The director of medical services predicted six years ago thatdemand in year 1 would be 42 surgeries. Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 20%,develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. Compute for the MAD.
Manager Chris Channing of Fabric Mills, Inc., has developed the forecast shown in the table for bolts of cloth. The figures are in hundreds of bolts. The department has a regular output capacity of 275(00) bolts per month, except for the seventh month, when capacity will be 240(00) bolts. Regular output has a cost of $43 per hundred bolts. Workers can be assigned to other jobs if production is less than regular. The beginning inventory is zero bolts. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Total Forecast 275 350 225 300 280 275 270 1,975 a. Develop a chase plan that matches the forecast and compute the total cost of your plan. Overtime is $68 per hundred bolts. Regular production can be less than regular capacity b. Would the total cost be less with full regular production each period with no overtime, but using a subcontractor to handle the excess above regular capacity at a cost of $53 per hundred bolts? Backlogs are not allowed. The inventory carrying cost is $2 per hundred bolts. (Round…
Zeus Computer Chips Inc. used to have major contracts to produce the Centrino-type chips. The market has been declining during the past three years because of the dual-core chips, which it cannot produce, so Zeus has the unpleasant task of forecasting next year. The task is unpleasant because the firm has not been able to find replacement chips for its product lines. Here is demand over the past 12 quarters:2007 2008 2009I 4,800 I 3,500 I 3,200II 3,500 II 2,700 II 2,100III 4,300 III 3,500 III 2,700IV 3,000 IV 2,400 IV 1,700Use the decomposition technique to forecast the four quarters of 2010.
Calculate the forecast for week 16 using - a 2-period moving avergage - a 3-period moving average
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