Given the following payoff table (in K million), about a cooking oil producer in Lusaka. The company is researching for its 2019 budget production levels. High Demand Average Demand Low Demand Produce 30,000 39 5 -13 Produce 20,000 28 12 9 Produce 12,000 13 4 -10 Probability ? 0.5 0.2 a) Explain the meaning of 39 and -10 in the payoff table. b) What are the expected payoffs for each production level? (determine the missing probability). c) What is the expected payoff under perfect information? d) How much should the company invest in further market research to obtain perfect information?

Given the following payoff table (in K million), about a cooking oil producer in Lusaka. The company is researching for its 2019 budget production levels. High Demand Average Demand Low Demand Produce 30,000 39 5 -13 Produce 20,000 28 12 9 Produce 12,000 13 4 -10 Probability ? 0.5 0.2 a) Explain the meaning of 39 and -10 in the payoff table. b) What are the expected payoffs for each production level? (determine the missing probability). c) What is the expected payoff under perfect information? d) How much should the company invest in further market research to obtain perfect information?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 30P

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Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
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You are given the following payoff table (in K million), about a cooking oil producer in Lusaka. The company is researching for its 2019 budget production levels. High Demand Average Demand Low Demand Produce 30,000 39 5 -13 Produce 20,000 28 12 9 Produce 12,000 13 4 -10 Probability ? 0.5 0.2 Required: a) Explain the meaning of 39 and -10 in the payoff table. b) What are the expected payoffs for each production level? (Note that you will have to determine the missing probability). c) What is the expected payoff under perfect information? d) How much should the company invest in further market research to obtain perfect information
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