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Description: he expected value is computed for each alternative in case of decision-making when the likely outcomes are known. Select one:TrueFalse Determining the design capacity for a maximum demand may lead to high utilization of facilities. Select one:TrueF

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Operations Management

he expected value is computed for each alternative in case of decision-making when the likely outcomes are known. Select one: True False

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter11: Simulation Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 63P: It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to produce a 1000-pound batch of a drug. The average yield...

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The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the Canadian salmon industry. Each year the salmon spawn during a 24-hour period and must be canned immediately. Tinkan has the following agreement with the salmon industry. The company can deliver as many cans as it chooses. Then the salmon are caught. For each can by which Tinkan falls short of the salmon industrys needs, the company pays the industry a 2 penalty. Cans cost Tinkan 1 to produce and are sold by Tinkan for 2 per can. If any cans are left over, they are returned to Tinkan and the company reimburses the industry 2 for each extra can. These extra cans are put in storage for next year. Each year a can is held in storage, a carrying cost equal to 20% of the cans production cost is incurred. It is well known that the number of salmon harvested during a year is strongly related to the number of salmon harvested the previous year. In fact, using past data, Tinkan estimates that the harvest size in year t, Ht (measured in the number of cans required), is related to the harvest size in the previous year, Ht1, by the equation Ht = Ht1et where et is normally distributed with mean 1.02 and standard deviation 0.10. Tinkan plans to use the following production strategy. For some value of x, it produces enough cans at the beginning of year t to bring its inventory up to x+Ht, where Ht is the predicted harvest size in year t. Then it delivers these cans to the salmon industry. For example, if it uses x = 100,000, the predicted harvest size is 500,000 cans, and 80,000 cans are already in inventory, then Tinkan produces and delivers 520,000 cans. Given that the harvest size for the previous year was 550,000 cans, use simulation to help Tinkan develop a production strategy that maximizes its expected profit over the next 20 years. Assume that the company begins year 1 with an initial inventory of 300,000 cans.
It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to produce a 1000-pound batch of a drug. The average yield from a batch is unknown but the best case is 90% yield (that is, 900 pounds of good drug will be produced), the most likely case is 85% yield, and the worst case is 70% yield. The annual demand for the drug is unknown, with the best case being 20,000 pounds, the most likely case 17,500 pounds, and the worst case 10,000 pounds. The drug sells for 125 per pound and leftover amounts of the drug can be sold for 30 per pound. To maximize annual expected profit, how many batches of the drug should the company produce? You can assume that it will produce the batches only once, before demand for the drug is known.
A small building contractor has recently experienced two successive years in which work opportunities exceeded the firm’s capacity. The contractor must now make a decision on capacity for next year. Estimated profits under each of the two possible states of nature are as shown in the table below. NEXT YEAR'SDEMAND Alternative Low High Do nothing $ 50 * $ 60 Expand 20 80 Subcontract 40 70 * Profit in $ thousands. Which alternative should be selected if the decision criterion is (Enter your answers in thousands. Omit the "$" sign in your response.) Criterion Payoff Alternative a. Maximax $ (Click to select) Subcontract Expand Do Nothing or Subcontract Do Nothing or Expand Expand or Subcontract Do Nothing b. Maximin $ (Click to select) Subcontract Do Nothing or Expand Expand or Subcontract Expand Do Nothing Do Nothing or Subcontract c. Laplace $ (Click to select) Do Nothing or…
A store is evaluating two options: expand to a new location stay and do nothing in current place for the next five years The decision process includes the following: Moving to the new site: would cost $500,000 annual returns with strong growth = $3 million; with weak growth = $2 million Doing nothing: annual returns with strong growth = $2 million; with weak growth = $1.5 million Strong growth has a 70% probability and operating costs for all other options are equal. Draw a decision tree of the problem and determine the best solution with highest expected value.
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The DellaVecchia Garden Center purchases and sells Christmas trees during the holiday season. It purchases the trees for $10 each and sells them for $20 each. Any trees not sold by Christmas day are sold for $2 each to a company that makes wood chips. The garden center estimates that four levels of demand are possible: 100, 200, 500, and 1,000 trees.a. Compute the payoffs for purchasing 100, 200, 500, or1,000 trees for each of the four levels of demand.b. Construct a payoff table, indicating the events and alternative courses of action.c. Construct a decision tree.d. Construct an opportunity loss table. Use the Optimistic (maximax) to choose the best choice.e.Use the Pessimistic (maximin) to choose the best choice.f.Use the Criterion of realism (Hurwicz) to choose the best choice. α = 0.6g.Use the Equally likely (Laplace) to choose the best choice. h.Use the Minimax regret to choose the best choice.i.Use the expected monetary value to make a choice. ( Probability for the four level…
The DellaVecchia Garden Center purchases and sells Christmas trees during the holiday season. It purchases the trees for $10 each and sells them for $20 each. Any trees not sold by Christmas day are sold for $2 each to a company that makes wood chips. The garden center estimates that four levels of demand are possible: 100, 200, 500, and 1,000 trees.a. Compute the payoffs for purchasing 100, 200, 500, or1,000 trees for each of the four levels of demand.b. Construct a payoff table, indicating the events and alternative courses of action.c. Construct a decision tree.d. Construct an opportunity loss table. Use the Optimistic (maximax) to choose the best choice.e.Use the Pessimistic (maximin) to choose the best choice.f.Use the Criterion of realism (Hurwicz) to choose the best choice. α = 0.6g.Use the Equally likely (Laplace) to choose the best choice.h.Use the Minimax regret to choose the best choice.i.Use the expected monetary value to make a choice. ( Probability for the four level…
Global Logistics needs to rent space for storing product for the next three years. The following information regarding the demand and spot price is available. Current demand for the product is 150,000. Historically, Global Logistics has required 1500 square feet to store 1500 units of the product. Demand for the product can go up by 20% with a probability of 0.7 or down by 20% with a probability of 0.3. Global Logistics can sign a three-year fixed lease to rent 150,000 square feet of space at $1.00 per square foot per year. The firm may also choose to obtain warehousing space on the spot market. The current spot market price is $1.20 per square foot per year. The spot price can go up by 10% with a probability of 0.8 and can decrease by 10% with a probability of 0.2. The firm receives a revenue of $1.22 for each unit of demand. a) Create a decision tree showing period 0, 1 and 2 for the scenario described above. b) Calculate the NPV for the option when the firm decides to sign a…
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The manager of Arbor, Incorporated, is considering raising its current price of $50 per unit by 10%. If she does so, she estimates that demand will decrease by 30,000 units per month. Arbor currently sells 100,000 units per month, each of which costs $35 in variable costs. Fixed costs are $1,200,000. Assume the manager does not know how much demand will drop if the price increases. By how much would demand have to drop before the manager would not want to implement the price increase?