Identify the decision alternatives and uncertain conditions surrounding them? What is the optimal decision if the Developer is conservative? What is the optimal decision if the Developer is a risk taker? What is the optimal decision if the Developer wishes to minimize the Expected Opportunity Loss on the decision to be taken?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 31P
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A property development company is planning to build a block of student apartments in Lusaka’s Mass Media area. The company is yet to decide what size of block to build: a small, medium, or large. The payoffs of each size will depend on the demand for student accommodation in the area, which could be low, medium, high. The Developer estimates a 25%, 35%, and 40% chance of low, medium, and high demand, respectively.

Below is a payoffs matrix (in K’000) showing the annual payoffs for the decision problem.

Size of Block

Market Demand

Low

Medium

High

Small

400

400

400

Medium

200

500

500

Large

-400

300

800

Required:

  1. Identify the decision alternatives and uncertain conditions surrounding them?
  2. What is the optimal decision if the Developer is conservative?
  3. What is the optimal decision if the Developer is a risk taker?
  4. What is the optimal decision if the Developer wishes to minimize the Expected Opportunity Loss on the decision to be taken?
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ISBN:
9781337406659
Author:
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Publisher:
Cengage,