In solving the given problem ,you may refer to the following payoff table: New bridge built No new bridge Alternative location A 1 14 for new warehouse B 2 10 C 4 6 1. Assume the payoffs represent profits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under each of these decision criteria: A. Maximin B. Maximax C. Laplace

In solving the given problem ,you may refer to the following payoff table: New bridge built No new bridge Alternative location A 1 14 for new warehouse B 2 10 C 4 6 1. Assume the payoffs represent profits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under each of these decision criteria: A. Maximin B. Maximax C. Laplace

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.2: Elements Of Decision Analysis

Problem 2P

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

A payoff table is given as: S1 S2 S3 D1 250 750 500 D2 300 -250 1200 D3 500 500 600 (a) What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? (b) What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? (c) What decision should be made under minimal regret? (d) If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected value?
Suppose you have a choice of three projects to choose from. Here the expected profits from these projects under the following economic scenarios: Project Poor/Fair Moderate/Stable Strong/Booming A -200 $400 $700 B -700 600 1200 C 100 500 900 Now suppose the probability of a Poor/Fair economy is 25%, a Moderate/Stableeconomy is 45% and there is a 30% chance for a Strong/Booming economy.A) Setup a decision tree.B) Determine the expected value (EV) for each project. What project shouldbe selected based on the expected value approach? Why?C) Determine the expected value with perfect information about the states ofnature?D) Determine the expected value without perfect information about the states ofnature?E) Determine the expected value of perfect information.
The following payoff table shows a profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature. In order to get full credit, show your all work done step by step including cell calculations using excel functions. State of Nature Decion Alternatives s1 s2 s3 d1 250 100 50 d2 100 75 100 a) Construct a decision tree for this problem. b) Suppose that the decision-maker obtains the probabilities P(s1)=0.65, P(s2)=0.15, and P(s3)=0.20. Use the expected value approach to determine the optimal decision.
The following solved problems refer to this payoff table:NewBridgeBuiltNoNewBridgeAlternative capacityfor new storeA 1 14B 2 10C 4 6 where A = small, B = medium, and C = large.SOLVED PROBLEMSAssume the payoffs represent profits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under each of these decision criteria:a. Maximinb. Maximaxc. Laplace
Please use the payoff table (without the given prior probabilities) to answer the following questions: (d) Which alternative should be chosen under the Hurwicz (realism) criterion for α = 0.55?(e) Develop a regret table for this decision.(f) Which alternative should be chosen under the minimax regret criterion?
Monica and Isabel are roommates who, on this particular Saturday morning, are trying to decide what scarf to wear. Each has a Burberry scarf (which we’ll denote B), a tan scarf (denoted T), and a mauve scarf (denoted M). They care about the scarf but also about whether they end up wearing the same or different scarves. The preference ordering (from best to least preferred outcome) for Monica is: (1) she wears B and Isabel wears T or M; (2) she wears T and Isabel wears B or M; (3) she wears B and Isabel wears B; (4) she wears T and Isabel wears T: (5) she wears M and Isabel wears M; and (6) she wears M and Isabel wears B or T. Isabel’s preference ordering is: (1) she wears T and Monica wears B or M; (2) she wears M and Monica wears B or T; (3) she wears T and Monica wears T; (4) she wears M and Monica wears M; (5) she wears B and Monica wears B; and (6) she wears B and Monica wears T or M. Applying the IDSDS, which scarves will be worn?
Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P06_31.xlsx (picture of given excel file is attached) contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes. Identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution?
Please use the payoff table (without the given prior probabilities) to answer the following questions: (a) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximax criterion? (b) Which alternative should be chosen under the maximin criterion? (c) Which alternative should be chosen under the equally-likely criterion? (d) Which alternative should be chosen under the Hurwicz (realism) criterion for α = 0.55? (e) Develop a regret table for this decision. (f) Which alternative should be chosen under the minimax regret criterion?
Many decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions,1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utility.
Dwayne Whitten, president of Whitten Industries, is considering whether to build a manufacturing plant in north Texas. His decision is summarized in the following table: Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Build large plant $400,000 −$300,000 Build small plant $120,000 −$15,000 Don't Build $0 $0 Market Probability 0.40 0.60 a) The correct decision tree for Dwayne is shown in Figure ____ (all payoffs are in thousands). b) To maximize the return, Dwayne's decision should be to ______ . c) For Dwayne, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) = $___________ (enter your answer as a whole num
The owners of Sweet-Tooth Bakery have determined thatthey need to expand their facility in order to meet their increaseddemand for baked goods. Th e decision is whether to expand nowwith a large facility or expand small with the possibility of havingto expand again in fi ve years.Th e owners have estimated the following chances for demand:• Th e likelihood of demand being high is 0.70.• Th e likelihood of demand being low is 0.30.Profi ts for each alternative have been estimated as follows:• Large expansion has an estimated profi tability of either$80,000 or $50,000, depending on whether demand turnsout to be high or low.• Small expansion has a profi tability of $40,000, assumingdemand is low.• Small expansion with an occurrence of high demand wouldrequire considering whether to expand further. If the bakeryexpands at this point, the profi tability is to be $50,000.(a) Draw a decision tree showing the decisions, chanceevents, and their probabilities, as well as the profi tabilityof…
A firm that plans to expand its product line must decide whether to build a small or a large facilityto produce the new products. If it builds a small facility and demand is low, the net present valueafter deducting for building costs will be $400,000. If demand is high, the firm can either maintainthe small facility or expand it. Expansion would have a net present value of $450,000, and maintaining the small facility would have a net present value of $50,000.If a large facility is built and demand is high, the estimated net present value is $800,000. If demandturns out to be low, the net present value will be – $10,000.The probability that demand will be high is estimated to be .60, and the probability of low demandis estimated to be .40.a. Analyze using a tree diagram.