**** Labforps Made f 585-2 Considering the plot of original vs the seasonal adjusted series (quarterly 2005-2021) with forecast series (blue line) which go beyond actual (quarters 1 to 4, 2022). Both series have the same MAPE (1.28%) Which do you think has a better projection, Original or seasonal adjusted? (one point) Discuss your answer
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- An article in Quality Engineering presents viscosity data from a batch chemical process. A sample of these data is in the table. Reading left to right and up to down, draw a time series plot of all the data and comment on any features of the data that are revealed by this plot. Consider that the first 40 observations (the first 4 columns) were generated from a specific process, whereas the last 40 observations were generated from a different process. Does the plot indicate that the two processes generate similar results? Calculate the sample mean and sample variance of the first 40 and the second 40 observations.Alternating series test Coverages or diverges?Which of the following is a DISADVANTAGE of using a moving average technique todetermine time series trend?A.The trend values obtained do not reflect thegeneral trend.B.Only one trend value can be obtained foreither of the end points of the series.C.No trend values are obtained for thebeginning and end time points of the series.D.Each moving average trend value obtaineddoes not correspond with a time point
- Case study or time seriesA university is considering setting up an information desk manned by one employee. Based on information obtained from similar information desks, it is believed that people will arrive at the desk at the rate of 18 per hour. It takes an average of 2 minutes to answer a question. It is assumed that arrivals are Poisson and answer times are exponentially distributed. What is the arrival rate? (Include the units.) What is the service rate? (Include the units.) Find the probability that the employee is idle.choices: a. true b. false c. others (specify) 1. For stationary to attained, the data should undergone differencing so that the variance can be stabilize. 2. The series is called a white noise series if the forecast errors or residuals has no visible pattern 3. White noise models are widely used for non-stationary data.
- Question ( The length of adult male dolphins is normally distributed with an unknown mean μ. By some previous knowledge, the population standard deviation, is considered as known and is given by σ=1m. We took a sample of n=16 adult male dolphins, finding the sample mean x¯=7.6 meters. What is the distribution of the proper test statistic for doing inference for the population mean μ? Choose one No answer given Binomial distribution Normal distribution Student’s distribution Poisson distribution.The age of children in kindergarten on the first day of school is uniformly distributed between 4.88 and 5.94 years old. A first time kindergarten child is selected at random. Round answers to 4 decimal places if possible. If such a child is at the 87th percentile, how old is that child? ____ years old.You're curious what the average age of people on your flight is. Age is Normally distributed. You take a quick look around at 6 people, and estimate that the average age is 43 years, and the sample stdev is 5 yrs. What is the margin of error for a 95% CI for the mean? (Leave your answer to two decimal places.)
- EmergencyRoomTraffic. Desert Samaritan Hospital in Mesa, Arizona, keeps records of emergency room traffic. Those records reveal that the times between arriving patients have a special type of reverse-J-shaped distribution called an exponential distribution. They also indicate that the mean time between arriving patients is 8.7 minutes, as is the standard deviation. Suppose that you observe a sample of 10 interarrival times. a. Theoretically, what are the mean and standard deviation of all possible sample means? b. Use the technology of your choice to simulate 1000 samples of 10 interarrival times each. c. Determine the mean of each of the 1000 samples you obtained in part (b). d. Roughly what would you expect the mean and standard deviation of the 1000 sample means you obtained in part (c) to be? Explain your answers. e. Determine the mean and standard deviation of the 1000 sample means you obtained in part (c). f. Compare your answers in parts (d) and (e). Why are they different?The Age of Disposability. Suppose that the life of a certain device is approximately normally distributed with mean 48 months and standard deviation 16 months. You must use the product for 2 years. If it fails in that period, your cost will be $1000. If it does not fail, your cost will be $500. Type calculations/explanations in answering all these questions: a) What proportion of these devices are expected to fail during the 2-year use period? b) What is your expected cost of using this device for the 2 years? c) Approximately, what would be a fair price for a warranty against failure in the 2-year period?A tubes lifetime for your company's microwave follow an exponential distribution with a mean of 5.6 years. Your sales policy states that each magnetron tube has a two year warranty. What fraction of the tubes should your company plan to replace under warranty?