Consider the decision tree below. You are at the starting decision node DO (shown in the orange color). Assume all paths and decisions occur within a 1-year time horizon, so that no discounting is necessary. There are dollar investments, as shown, required at decision nodes D1 and D2. Which of the letters (shown in the red color) represents the optimal path maximizing the expected outcome value? Value, $ A 30 0.9 D3 Investment 0.4 100 $-50 0.1 0.6 -50 DI S-80 500 90 0.1 D1 500 $-80 90 Value $ 0.3 150 S-25 0.3 -30 0.4 75 0.5 200 D2 S-30- E 0.5 -100 $-35 50 O a. A O b. B O c. C O d. D O e. E O f. F
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- Many decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions,1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utility.Harley, an ice-cream vendor, purchases each pint of ice-cream for $7 and sells for $20 each. At the end of the week, the unsold ice-cream can be salvaged for $2 each. From past experience, Harley has estimated the sales probabilities as below. What is the optimal number of pints Harley should purchase? Number of Ice-creams Sold, Probability 1 = 0.05, 2 = 0.1, 3 = 0.2 , 4 = 0.25, 5 = 0.15, 6 = 0.1, 7 = 0.08, 8 = 0.07In the problem on excel : 1.What are the decision variables 2.What is the objective functions 3. What are the 12 constraints and explain You won $750,000 from a lottery and, you have decided to come up with a list of possible investments that you will invest, all of the $750,000 that you have won. The expected return of each of the 6 possible investments that you are considering investing in,and their Expected Rate of Return over the next year are in the table below. Investment Expected Rate of return Amazon Inc (USA Shares) 13.5% Royal Bank of Canada (Canadian Shares) 7.4% Nike Inc (USA Shares) 10.0% Telus Corporation (Canadian Shares) 6.1% Snap Inc (USA Shares) 3.0% Nestle SA (Switzerland Shares) 4.8% it is important to have a diversified portfolio, and therefore have come up with the following guidelines on how to invest your money: 1.The total invested in USA Shares should be at least 10% but no more then 45% of the total…
- A payoff table is given as: S1 S2 S3 D1 250 750 500 D2 300 -250 1200 D3 500 500 600 (a) What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? (b) What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? (c) What decision should be made under minimal regret? (d) If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected value?Johnson Chemicals is considering two options for itssupplier portfolio. Option I uses two local suppliers. Each hasa " unique-event" risk of 5%, and the probability of a " superevent"that would disable both at the same time is estimated to be1.5%. Option 2 uses two suppliers located in different countries.Each has a "unique-event" risk of 13%, and the probability of a"super-event" that would disable both at the same time is estimatedto be 0.2%.a) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option I?b) What is the probability that both suppliers will be disrupted using option 2?c) Which option would provide the lowest risk of a total shutdown?Assume that the Wisconsin Cheese Factory currently operates a large facility in Madison, WI. The owner, however, is concerned about concentration of risk and has decided to open up two new facilities to lessen that concentration, one in St. Cloud, MN, and the other in Iowa City, IA. Total production, while slightly less profitable overall because of additional operational costs, remains the same, with 1/3 at each location. This action is an example of _______. profit maximization loss reduction loss prevention risk avoidance
- A project faces uncertainty about the number of users of the service to be provided. It might be 10, 20, or 40 with probabilities 0.3, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively. There are two options, A and B. Under option A, the value per user is $10. Under option B, the value per user is $5 with probability 0.4 and otherwise $20. Assume the number of users and the value per user under option A are independent. Option A costs $100 and option B costs $250. a. Set up the table b. What are the expected values for each option? c. What is the value of perfect information before the decision is made? d. Suppose the decision maker could, for a price, determine whether value per user would be 5 or 20 under option B, tough you would learn nothing about the number of users. What is the value of that information?A small strip-mining coal company is trying to decide whether it should purchase or lease a new clamshell. If purchased, the “shell” will cost $152,500 and is expected to have a $50,000 salvage value after 6 years. Alternatively, the company can lease a clamshell for only $16,000 per year, but the lease payment will have to be made at the beginning of each year. If the clamshell is purchased, it will be leased to other strip-mining companies whenever possible, an activity that is expected to yield revenues of $9,000 per year. If the company’s MARR is 13% per year, should the clamshell be purchased or leased on the basis of a future worth analysis? Assume the annual M&O cost is the same for both options. The future worth when purchased is $ The future worth when leased is $A company is considering a new product launch. There is a 0.6 chance that demand for the product will be strong and a 0.4 chance that demand will be weak. Two strategies for the launch are possible: 1 has high promotion costs and a net cash outflow of K120 000 if demand proves to be strong, and if demand proves weak a net cash outflow of (K30 000) will result. Strategy 2 has low promotion costs and if demand is strong will generate a cash inflow of only K80 000 but with weak demand a net cash inflow of K20 000. Draw a decision tree and advise which course of action generates the greatest expected profit. What is the maximum amount that should be paid for market research to determine with certainty whether demand will be strong or weak?
- A store owner must decide whether to build a small or a large facility at a new location. Demand at a location can be either small or large, which probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If small facility is built and demand proves to be high, the manager may choose not to expand (payoff=P235,000) or to expand (payoff=P275,000). If a small facility is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the payoff is P220,000. If a large facility is built and demand proves to be low, the choice is to do nothing (P60,000) or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising may be either modest or sizable, with their probabilities estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7, respectively. If it is modest, the payoff grows to P230,000 if the response is sizable. Finally, if a large facility is built and demand turns out to be high, the payoff is P900,000.a.) Draw a decision tree.b.) Determine the expected payoff for each decision and event node.c.)…The following payoff table shows a profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature. In order to get full credit, show your all work done step by step including cell calculations using excel functions. State of Nature Decion Alternatives s1 s2 s3 d1 250 100 50 d2 100 75 100 a) Construct a decision tree for this problem. b) Suppose that the decision-maker obtains the probabilities P(s1)=0.65, P(s2)=0.15, and P(s3)=0.20. Use the expected value approach to determine the optimal decision.Mr. Smith is a rentier, he lives on renting apartments. However, these days he has to sell one of his apartments to get a big money. He hesitates which of three apartments of his to sell. Help Mr. Smith to make the right decision if you know the following: The present prices per m2 in the three locations equal: A) 4000, B) 5000, C) 6000 goldies, respectively. However, the long-run prices of those real estates are: A) 5000, B) 6000, and C) 7000 goldies, whereas the respective standard deviations are A) 400, B) 500, and C) 250 goldies.