Question 1 The below graph plots the daily prices of Gold over time. a) Examine the plot and describe the issues that may arise when trying to forecast future Gold prices given this time series data. Offer solutions to these issues. (2 marks). b) Offer a suitable forecasting method for this data. (2 marks). 600 - 500 - 400 - 300 - 200 400 600 800 1000 Time gold
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Question 1
The below graph plots the daily prices of Gold over time.
-
a) Examine the plot and describe the issues that may arise when trying to forecast future Gold prices given this time series data. Offer solutions to these issues.
-
b) Offer a suitable forecasting method for this data
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- Annual interest yield refer to problem 13 .suppose the investor decides to increase the maximum invested in highest bonds to $3000 leave the other conditions unchanged .by how much will her maximum possible interest yield increase?Table 6 shows the year and the number ofpeople unemployed in a particular city for several years. Determine whether the trend appears linear. If so, and assuming the trend continues, in what year will the number of unemployed reach 5 people?Question 18: Many investors and financial analysts believe the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gives a good barometer of the overall stock market. On January 31, 2006, 9 of the 30 stocks making up the DJIA increased in price (The Wall Street Journal, February 1, 2006). On the basis of this fact, a financial analyst claims we can assume that 30% of the stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) went up the same day.A sample of 57 stocks traded on the NYSE that day showed that 6 went up.You are conducting a study to see if the proportion of stocks that went up is significantly less than 0.3. You use a significance level of α=0.01α=0.01.What is the test statistic for this sample? (Report answer accurate to three decimal places.)test statistic = What is the p-value for this sample? (Report answer accurate to four decimal places.)p-value = The p-value is... less than (or equal to) αα greater than αα This test statistic leads to a decision to... reject the null accept the…
- PART D &E ONLY The following data set provides the total number of shipments of core major household appliances in the U.S. from 2000 to 2016 (in millions): Year Shipments (millions) 2000 38.4 2001 38.2 2002 40.8 2003 42.5 2004 46.1 2005 47.0 2006 46.7 2007 44.1 2008 39.8 2009 36.5 2010 38.2 2011 36.0 2012 35.8 2013 39.2 2014 41.5 2015 42.9 2016 44.7 a. Plot the time series. b. Fit a three-year moving average to the data and plot the results. c. Fit a five-year moving average to the data and plot the results. d. Compute a linear trend forecasting equation and plot the trend line. e. Compute a quadratic trend forecasting equation and plot the results.Companies are devoting time and energy to promote recycling. A major recycling company found some old documents that present the recorded amount of cell phone collected over a span of eight years. Year Cellular Telephones Collected (in millions) 2009 2.2 2010 2.6 2011 2.9 2012 3.4 2013 3.1 2014 4.2 2015 4.9 2016 5.3 Part a) Develop a time series plot with Year on the X axis and Cellular Telephones Collected on the Y axis. Part b) Does there appear to be a relationship between time and cellular telephones collected?question 2 Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series: Quarter Seasonal Index Q1 70 Q2 134.5 Q3 115 Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4. Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below: Coefficients Intercept 2,484 Time 73.2 In general, what quarter is the busiest time of the year? (please just answer 1, 2, 3, or 4)
- QUESTION 1 Weekly closing prices (in RM) for Telstra for Sept 2015 - October 2015 is as follows: Week Share Price 1 3.47 2 3.58 3 3.41 4 3.39 5 3.25 6 3.40 7 3.35 8 3.51 9 3.41 10 3.41 Solve: 1. Use a 3 week moving average (SMA) to forecast the price for week 11. 2. Use a 3 week weighted moving average (WMA) to forecast the price for week 11. Use the weight of 3 for the latest period, 2 for the second latest period and 1 for the third latest period. 3. Use the exponential moving average (EMA) forecast to forecast price for week 11. Use α = 0.2 as the smoothing constant. Initial week 1 forecast was 3.47. 4. Which forecast gave the best result? Use MAD to find out. QUESTION 2 Sales of Cool Man air conditioners have grown steadily during the past five years: Year Sales 1 450 2 495 3 518 4 563 5 584 6 ? *The sales manager predicted that year 1 sales would be 450 air conditioners. Solve: 1. Using α = 0.30, develop forecast for year 2…QUESTION 6 Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series: Quarter Seasonal Index Q1 70.5 Q2 81.7 Q3 110 Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4. Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below: Coefficients Intercept 2,306 Time 65.7 What is the trend projection of the series for period 52? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)QUESTION 9 The risk of acquiring a given disease during a time period is best determined by: A. the mortality rate from that disease in the 0-4 age group. B. the incidence rate (cumulative incidence) for that disease in a given period of time. C. a spot map that records all cases of the disease in the past year. D. the period prevalence for that disease during the past year.
- QUESTION 28 Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series: Quarter Seasonal Index Q1 72.2 Q2 87.1 Q3 106 Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4. Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below: Coefficients Intercept 1,993 Time 75.3 What is the forecast for period 62, if period 62 is a Q1? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)QUESTION 25 Suppose the following are the seasonal indices for the first three quarters of the year for a quarterly series: Quarter Seasonal Index Q1 73 Q2 83.4 Q3 108.6 Remember that the seasonal indices should average 100 so you should be able to infer the seasonal index for Q4. Furthermore, suppose that the estimated coeffcients from a regression of the deseasonalized series on Time are given below: Coefficients Intercept 2,148 Time 58.2 If the original value of the series in a Q1 was 2,186, then what is the seasonally adjusted value? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)Problem 6-11 For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83. Choose the correct time series plot. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for α = 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? Do not round your interim computations and round your final answers to three decimal places. Movingaverage Exponentialsmoothing MSE fill in the blank 3 fill in the blank 4 What is the forecast for next month? If required, round your answer to two decimal places.fill in the blank 6