Respond to the following questions in a minimum of 175 words: . Consider a situation that you might need to use your understanding of probability to make an informed decision. • What sorts of information would you collect? How might you use what you have learned about probability to determine a course of action? • What are the possible benefits and limitations of this approach? .
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- Microeconomics Wilfred’s expected utility function is px1^0.5+(1−p)x2^0.5, where p is the probability that he consumes x1 and 1 - p is the probability that he consumes x2. Wilfred is offered a choice between getting a sure payment of $Z or a lottery in which he receives $2500 with probability p = 0.4 and $3700 with probability 1 - p. Wilfred will choose the sure payment if Z > CE and the lottery if Z < CE, where the value of CE is equal to ___ (please round your final answer to two decimal places if necessary)Adam is considering what skills to study in online school. Her utility function is based on the income she earns, and is defined by U(I) = I0.8. If she learns the skill of SPSS, she will earn $145,000 per year with probability 1. If she learns the skill of Tableau, she will earn $300,000 per year with probability 0.6 (assuming that she gets the certificate) and $30,000 with probability 0.4 (if she learns without earning a certificate and she has to find a waiter job). a. Is she risk averse, risk neutral, or risk loving? Explain.b. Write out the equation for her expected utility for each skill. c.Which skill will she learn? Show your work. d.Suppose someone offers her insurance for the possibility that she does not get a Tableau certificate. This insurance will provide her an amount of income in addition to the waiter job wages that makes her indifferent between learning SPSS and Tableau. What is this amount, and what is the cost of the insurance? (note: many possible answers)Suppose the market for auto insurance is made of up two types of buyers: high-risk and low-risk. Buyers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for auto insurance plans, and sellers’ willingness to accept (WTA) when selling plans to each type of buyer, are outlined in a photo Assume now that there is asymmetric information and that insurance companies do not knowhow risky an individual buyer is. In the face of this uncertainty, they determine that the probability that a “walk-in” is high-risk is 0.75. What is the minimum price sellers are willing to accept when selling aninsurance plan? At this price, will low- and high-risk buyers both be willing to purchase this insurance plan? Explain. Be sure the mention adverse selection in your answer. Returning to the conditions outlined in Q1, suppose that buyers of auto insurance (high- and low-risk) were offered a $1,000 subsidy to purchase coverage. This would raise their WTP by $1,000. Would the market for both insurance plans clear after the…
- A lottery system has balls numbered 1 to 65 and randomly selects 6 of the lottery balls. There is only one prize of $ 10,000,000.00 which is awarded only it a lottery player selects the correct set of 6 lottery balls. a) If a lottery ticket costs $ 5.00, what is a lottery player's expected value? b) How much would the lottery prize have to be worth if it was to be a fair game? (Note: Include dollar signs in your answer)Lela must decide to go on a winter trip to norway with the hope of seeing northern light would yield a utility level of 2,000 but she has only a 50% chance that they will show during the days of her trip. making the trip without seeing the lights would yield a utility level of 100 and there is 50 % chance of this happening. what is lela's expected utilty if show goes on the trip? a. 2,100 b.1,050 c.42 d.9502. Kier, in The scenario, wants to determine how each of the 3 companies will decide on possible new investments. He was able to determine the new investment pay off for each of the three choices as well as the probability of the two types of market. If a company will launch product 1, it will gain 50,000 if the market is successful and lose 50,000 if the market is a failure. If a company will launch product 2, it will gain 25,000 if the market is successful and lose 25,000 if the market will fail. If a company decides not to launch any of the product, it will not be affected whether the market will succeed or fail. There is a 56% probability that the market will succeed and 44% probability that the market will fail. What will be the companies decision based on EMV? What is the decision of each company based on expected utility value?
- Assume that there are two parties, I and V. I engages in an activity that tends to injure V. V and I both can take care to reduce the expected harm from accidents. Specifically, suppose that if I takes no care (i.e., spends $0 on accident precautions), expected injury to V is $250. If I spends $40 on accident precautions, however, the expected injury to V is reduced to $175. Further suppose that V has a choice between taking no care or spending $50 in care to avoid accidents. If V spends $50 in care, V’s expected harm falls by $20 regardless of the level of care that I takes. Assume that courts adopt the socially‐optimal level of injurer care as the negligence standard. That is, if I takes less than the socially‐optimal level of care, she will be found negligent and must pay for all damages to V. If I takes at least the socially optimal level of care, she will not have to compensate V for his damages. 1. Under a negligence standard, what is I’s dominant strategy? a) I does not have a…If a risk‐averse individual owns a home worth $100,000, and that individual iswilling to pay a maximum of $1,000 for an annual fire insurance policy that covers theentire loss in the event of a fire, then we know that:A. There is a one percent chance that the home will be destroyed by fire inthe next yearB. There is a greater than a one percent chance that the home will bedestroyed by fire in the next yearC. There is less than a one percent chance that the home will be destroyedby fire in the next yearD. None of the above is correctSubject 2 A bottle company ALPHA, is considering creating a new bottle of 0.25 lt. To decide whether to invest in this projector not, they performed market research that costed €5,000. The results indicated two possible scenarios that depend on the competitor's reaction to create a similar product and on the percentage of the faithful customers of ALPHA. ScenarioA has a 45% chanceto be realized, while scenarioB has a probability of 55%. For the project's realization the company must purchase specialmachinery that cost €80,000, while transportation and installation costs amount to €2,000. The useful life of the project is two years, and the machinery can be sold at the end of the useful life for €30,000.Table 1 presents the pertinenteconomic data. At the end of the second year the working capital is going to be recaptured. The tax rate is 25%, the weighted average cost of capital is 10% and the company fully depreciates fixed assets for tax purposes, using the straight-line depreciation…
- Suppose that an individual is just willing to accept a gamble to win or lose $1000 if the probability ofwinning is 0.6. Suppose that the utility gained if the individual wins is 100 utils. How much utility does one lose if one loses the gamble?Suppose that an individual is just willing to accept a gamble to win or lose $1000 if the probability ofwinning is 0.6. Suppose that the utility gained if the individual wins is 100 utils. What is expected gains/loss.Suppose Grace and Lisa are to go to dinner. Lisa is visiting Grace from outof town, and they are to meet at a local restaurant. When Lisa lived in town,they had two favorite restaurants: Bel Loc Diner and the Corner Stable. Ofcourse, Lisa’s information is out of date, but Grace knows which is betterthese days. Assume that the probability that the Bel Loc Diner is better isp > 1/2 and the probability that the Corner Stable is better is 1 - p. Naturedetermines which restaurant Grace thinks is better. Grace then sends amessage to Lisa, either “Let’s go to the Bel Loc Diner,” “Let’s go to theCorner Stable,” or “I don’t know [which is better].” Lisa receives the message, and then Grace and Lisa simultaneously decide which restaurant to go to. Payoffs are such that Grace and Lisa want to go to the same restaurant, but they prefer it to be the one that Grace thinks is better. More specifically, if, in fact, the Bel Loc Diner is better, then the payoffs from theiractions are as shown in the…