Scenario Probability Expected Return 18% 38% 30% 14% 100% 30% 2 20% 15% 4 -8% An analyst creates a probabilistic scenario analysis for projecting stock market returns. The analyst's work is shown in the above table. The Interpretation of the table can be described as follows: The analyst assigns a probability of 18% to the first scenario, which projects a stock market return of 30%. Subsequent rows can be interpreted similarly. The expected return of the analyst's projections is closest to: O 100% O 16% 30% -8%

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