Specific motors produces electronic motors for power-actuated valves for the Medicalconstruction industry. Specific's production plant has operated at near capacity forover a year now. JOSEPH Bakkabulindi, the plant manager thinks that the growth insales will continue, and he wants to develop a long- range forecast to be used to planfacility requirements for the next 3 years. Sales records for the past 10 years havebeen accumulated: N.B: Show all the workings. Solve with Linear regression. Year Annual sales (000's of units) Year Annual sales (000's of units 1 500 6 1,000 2 650 7 1,100 3 900 8 1,300 4 1,000 9 1,450 5 1,000 10 1,600

Specific motors produces electronic motors for power-actuated valves for the Medicalconstruction industry. Specific's production plant has operated at near capacity forover a year now. JOSEPH Bakkabulindi, the plant manager thinks that the growth insales will continue, and he wants to develop a long- range forecast to be used to planfacility requirements for the next 3 years. Sales records for the past 10 years havebeen accumulated: N.B: Show all the workings. Solve with Linear regression. Year Annual sales (000's of units) Year Annual sales (000's of units 1 500 6 1,000 2 650 7 1,100 3 900 8 1,300 4 1,000 9 1,450 5 1,000 10 1,600

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 42P: The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars)...

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
Herman Hahn is attempting to set up an integrated forecasting and inventory controlsystem for his hardware store, Hahn’s Hardware. When Herman indicates that outdoorlights are a seasonal item on the computer, he is prompted by the program to input theseasonal factors by quarter.Unfortunately, Herman has not kept any historical data, but he estimates that firstquarter demand for the lights is about 30 percent below average, the second-quarterdemand about 20 percent below average, third-quarter demand about average, andfourth-quarter demand about 50 percent above average. What should he input for theseasonal factors?
Winter’s method is being used to forecast quarterlyU.S. retail sales (in billions of dollars). At the end of the firstquarter, Lt 300, Tt 30, and the seasonal indexes are asfollows: quarter 1, 0.90; quarter 2, 0.95; quarter 3, 0.95;quarter 4, 1.20. During the second quarter, retail sales are$360 billion. Assume a 0.2, b 0.4, and g 0.5.a At the end of the second quarter, develop a forecastfor retail sales during the fourth quarter of the year.b At the end of the second quarter, develop a forecastfor the second quarter of the following year.
Clinic administrator Marc Schniederjans wants you to forecastpatient demand at the clinic for week 7 by using this data. You decide to use a weighted moving average method to find this fore-cast. Your method uses four actual demand levels, with weights of 0.333 on the present period, 0.25 one period ago, 0.25 two peri-ods ago, and 0.167 three periods ago. a) What is the value of your forecast? PXb) If instead the weights were 20, 15, 15, and 10, respectively, howwould the forecast change? Explain why. c) What if the weights were 0.40, 0.30, 0.20, and 0.10, respec-tively? Now what is the forecast for week 7?
Week Sales1 27502 31003 32504 28005 29006 30507 33008 31009 295010 300011 320012 3150Develop a three-week moving average. A.What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) B.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to a three-week moving average? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) C.Develop the exponential smoothing with the alpha value of 0.20. What is the forecast for week 5? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) D.What is the value of MSE (mean squared error) with regard to the exponential smoothing? (Make sure no decimal place and no comma. EX: 1234) E.Which method is more accurate? (1 for Moving average, 2 for Exponential Smoothing)
2)Auto sales over a 4-month period were forecasted as follows: 89, 98, 105, and 97. The actual results over the 4-month period were as follows: 92, 96, 101, and 100. What was the MAD of the 4-month forecast? (use an excel sheet to make all calaculations and show formulas used in excel)
Bradley's Copiers sells and repairs photocopy machines. The manager needs weekly forecasts of service calls so that he can schedule service personnel. Use the actual demand in the first period for the forecast for the first week so error measurement begins in the second week. The manager uses exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.5 Forecast the number of calls for week 6, which is next week. Week Actual service calls 1 28 2 36 3 38 4 25 5 25 The forecast for week 6 is ___ service calls (round to two decimals and show your work)
The table shows the values found in the error analysis. What method of forecasting would be best to use? What is the forecasted value? MSE forecast for week 13 Time Series 1.08 14.76 3-week MA 3.04 13.67 exp smoothing 11.04 9.5 Group of answer choices A.) Time Series, forecasted value = 14.76 B.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 13.67 C.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 9.5 D.) Time Series, forecasted value = 1.08 E.) 3-week MA, forecasted value = 3.04 F.) exp smoothing, forecasted value = 11.04
Given November actual demand of 61, November forecast of 58, and an alpha of 0.4, November trend value +1.03, Beta of 0.3 what would the forecast including trend (FIT) for the December period be using exponential smoothing model 2? Select one: a. 62.03 b. cannot be found c. 68.76 d. 65.72
*** Can you please demonstrate how to do parts d, e, f? Given: Year Demand 1 7 2 9 3 5 4 9 5 Predict the value for Year 5: 2 year moving average What is MSE for 2 year moving average? 2 year moving average using 0.6 (weight for the oldest period) and 0.4(weight for most recent period Exponential smoothing, =0.2 and forecast for Year 1 = 5 Linear trend Which forecast method has the least amount of error using MAD? What is the coefficient?