The historical data for 4 perlods demand are 65, 60, B0, ond 70respectively Calculate the weighted moving verae (WMA) forecast of perlod 5 with welghts (0,4, 0,6)
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- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Sara manages one of the Albireds shoe lines, and is working to improve the group's forecasting capabilities so that production will more closely match actual demand (that's the goal, at least!). Work our the exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.2, (seed the model with a January forecast = 16,000). A weighted moving average using 0.6(t-1), 0.3(t-2) and 0.1(t-3)
- Using the moving average forecast, is it possible to forecast a demand that is biggerthan any previously observed demand?a. Yesb. Noa) The demand forecast for Month 6 would be: A. 565 haircuts B. 574 haircuts C. 578 haircuts D. 584 haircuts b) With Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) as the criterion, the best forecasting model for this time series data is: A. Naïve approach B. 2-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) C. Weighted Moving Average (WMA) with weights: 0.5, 0.3, 0.2 D. Exponential Smoothing (ES) with alpha = 0.8Using the double exponential smoothing forecast, is it possible to forecast a demand thatis bigger than any previously observed demand?a. Yesb. No
- 1. Using MAD as the criterion, which of the following models would you use for thegiven time series data? Why?A. Naïve approach;B. 5-month SMA model;C. WMA model with weights 0.1, 0.3, and 0.6; orD. ES model with α = 0.5 and a forecast of 3,500 liters in the first month.NOTE: In answering Item 1, mention the whole description of the model; i.e., not just“SMA model”, but “SMA model with n = ...”; not just “WMA model”, but “WMA modelwith weights ...”; not just “ES model”, but “ES model with α = ...”.Simple exponential smoothing (with a 0.2) is beingused to forecast monthly beer sales at Gordon’s LiquorStore. After observing April’s demand, the predicted demandfor May is 4,000 cans of beer.a At the beginning of May, what is the prediction forJuly’s beer sales?b Actual demand during May and June is as follows:May, 4,500 cans of beer; June, 3,500 cans of beer. Afterobserving June’s demand, what is the forecast for July’sdemand?c The demand during May and June averages out to 4,5002 3,500 4,000 cans per month. This is the same asthe forecast for monthly sales before we observed theMay and June data. Yet after observing the May andJune demands for beer, our forecast for July demand hasdecreased from what it was at the end of April. Why?Product A is an assemble-to-order product. It has a lot size of 150, and currentlyhas an on-hand inventory of 110 units. There is a 2-week demand time fence and a12-week planning time fence. The following table gives the original forecast and theactual customer orders for the next 12 weeks:Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Forecast 80 80 80 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70Demand 83 78 65 61 49 51 34 17 11 7 0 0a. Given this information, develop a realistic master schedule, complete with ATPlogic.b. Tell how you would respond to each of the following customer order requests.Assume these are independent requests, and do not have cumulative effects.■ 20 units in week 3■ 40 units in week 5■ 120 units in week 7
- Matrix uses simple exponential smoothing with S.F = 0.6 to forecast demand. The forecast for the week of Nov 1 was 350 units, whereas the actual demand turned out to be 400 units. Forecast the demand for the week of Nov 8 to week Nov 22 Week Actual Demand Forecast Nov 01 350 400 Nov 08 460 430 Nov 15 501 448 Nov 22 495 479.8 Element of Competency Determine the quantity of raw materials and other products order.Consider the following actual (A,) and forecast (F,) demand levels for a commercial multiline telephone at Office Max: The first forecast, Fl' was derived by observing A1 and setting F1equal to A 1. Subsequent forecast averages were derived by exponentialsmoothing. Using the exponentia l smoothing method,find the forecast for time period 5. (Hint: You need to first findthe smoothing constant, a.)minco inc is a small manufaturer of fused magnesia and silica. Minco's continuous improvement efforts led to a capacity and production planning software. to prepare for the use of software, a spreadsheet was first used to determine the capacity requirements for the main equipment (the fusion furnances) and the production schedule for the main products. A major product had the following forecast and committed orders (all in thousand dollars): January Feburary Week 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Forecast 56 56 56 66 66 66 66 Committed order 44 0 18 The initial inventory was 119,000 pounds and the minimum stock at the end week was to be 83,000 pounds. Calculate the economic production quantity (EPQ) if the annual demand is 3,000,000 pounds, setup cost is $350 per setup, inventory holding cost rate is 20 percent per year, unit cost is $2 per pound, demand rate is 500 pounds per hour, and production…