This problem is known as the Three prisoners problem. Three prisoners, A, B and C, are in separate cells and sentenced to death. The governor has selected one of them at random to be pardoned. The warden knows which one is pardoned, but is not allowed to tell. Prisoner A begs the warden to let him know the identity of one of the others who is going to be executed. If B is to be pardoned, give me C's name. If C is to be pardoned, give me B's name. And if I'm to be pardoned, ip a coin to decide whether to name B or C. The warden tells A that B is to be executed. Then, Prisoner A secretly tells C the news. Prisoner A says that he is pleased because his probability of surviving has gone up from 1/3 to 1/2, as it is now between him and C. Prisoner C says that he is pleased because A still has a chance of 1/3 to be the pardoned one, but his chance has gone up to 2/3.

This problem is known as the Three prisoners problem. Three prisoners, A, B and C, are in separate cells and sentenced to death. The governor has selected one of them at random to be pardoned. The warden knows which one is pardoned, but is not allowed to tell. Prisoner A begs the warden to let him know the identity of one of the others who is going to be executed. If B is to be pardoned, give me C's name. If C is to be pardoned, give me B's name. And if I'm to be pardoned, ip a coin to decide whether to name B or C. The warden tells A that B is to be executed. Then, Prisoner A secretly tells C the news. Prisoner A says that he is pleased because his probability of surviving has gone up from 1/3 to 1/2, as it is now between him and C. Prisoner C says that he is pleased because A still has a chance of 1/3 to be the pardoned one, but his chance has gone up to 2/3.

Operations Research : Applications and Algorithms

4th Edition

ISBN:9780534380588

Author:Wayne L. Winston

Publisher:Wayne L. Winston

Chapter23: Simulation With The Excel Add-in @risk

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 8RP

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