Use the following payoff table to complete parts (a) through (j). The probability of event 1 is 0.30, theprobability of event 2 is 0.50, and the probability of event 3 is 0.20.a. Determine the optimal action based on the maximax criterion.Actionis the optimal action based on the maximax criterion because itsb. Determine the optimal action based on the maximin criterion.Actionis the optimal action based on the maximin criterion because itsc. Compute the expected monetary value (EMV) for each action.EMV(A) = $EMV(B) = $EMV(C) = $(Simplify your answare )ACTIONEVENT Buy 100, A ($) Buy 200, B ($) Buy 500, C ($)Demand 100, 1 500300- 300Demand 200, 21,000Demand 500, 34005005001,0002,500payoff is thepayoff is theof all the actions.of all the actions. Use the following payoff table to complete parts (a) through (j). The probability of event 1 is 0.30, theprobability of event 2 is 0.50, and the probability of event 3 is 0.20.EOL(A) = $EOL(B) = $EOL(C) = $(Simplify your answers.)ACTIONEVENT Buy 100, A ($) Buy 200, B ($) Buy 500, C ($)- 3005005003001,0004005001,0002,500Demand 100, 1Demand 200, 2Demand 500, 3e. Explain the meaning of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in this problem. Choose the correct answer below.A. The EVPI value provides a guideline for an upper bound on how much to consider paying for better information.O B. The EVPI is the expected payoff that the company will receive with perfect information.C. The EVPI is the value that the company should expect to pay for perfect information.O D. The EVPI value provides a guideline for a lower bound on how much to consider paying for better information.

Decision-making is influenced by an organization as per the degree of certainty involved in this. In…

Answered: Use the following payoff table to…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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Given the following payoff table with the profits ($m), a firm might expect alternative investments (A, B, C) under different levels of interest rate. (Attached)(a) Which alternative should the firm choose under the maximax criterion? (b) Which option should the firm choose under the maximin criterion? (c) Which option should the firm choose under the LaPlace criterion? (d) Which option should the firm choose with the Hurwicz criterion with α = 0.2? (e) Using a minimax regret approach, what alternative should the firm choose? (f) Economists have assigned probabilities of 0.35, 0.3, and 0.35 to the possible interest levels 1, 2, and 3 respectively. Using expected monetary values, what option should be chosen and what is that optimal expected value? (g) What is the most that the firm should be willing to pay for additional information? Use Expected Regret (h) Use the alternative method to verify EVPI Part 2 Assume now that the pay offs are costs answer the following: (a) Using an…
A new minor league baseball team is coming to town and the owners have decided to build a new stadium, either small or large. The success of the team with regard to ticket sales will be either high or low with probabilities of 0.75 and 0.25, respectively. If demand for tickets is high, the large stadium would provide a payoff of approximately $20 million. If ticket sales are low, the loss on the large stadium would be $5 million. If a small stadium is constructed, and ticket sales are low, the payoff is $500,000 after deducting the cost of construction. If ticket sales are high, the team can choose to build an upper deck, or to maintain the existing facility. Expanding the stadium in this scenario has a payoff of $10 million, whereas maintaining the same number of seats has a payoff of only $3 million. a. Draw a decision tree for this problem. b. What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff?
Option 2: Raise prices by 50%. If this occurs, there is a 75% chance that an Entrepreneur will set up in competition this year. The board’s estimate of its annual profit in this situation would be as follows: 2A: With new competitor 2B: Without new competitor Probability Profit (Sh.) Probability Profit (Sh.) 0.25 150,000 0.5 200,000 0.5 120,000 0.3 150,000 0.25 80,000 0.2 100,000 Option 3: Expand the car park quickly at a cost of Sh. 50,000 keeping prices theSame. The profits are then estimated to be like 2B above, except that the probabilities would be 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. Required: Draw a decision tree for the above problem, including all the relevant data. Using expected values analyze the decision tree and recommend the best option to the owners of the car park.
Sheaves Corporation economists estimate that a good business environment and a bad business environment are equally likely for the coming year. Management must choose between two mutually exclusive projects. Assume that the project chosen will be the firm’s only activity and that the firm will close one year from today. The firm is obligated to make a $4,400 payment to bondholders at the end of the year. The projects have the same systematic risk, but different volatilities. Consider the following information pertaining to the two projects: Economy Probability Low-VolatilityProject Payoff High-VolatilityProject Payoff Bad .50 $4,400 $3,800 Good .50 5,050 5,650 a. What is the expected value of the firm if the low-volatility project is undertaken? What if the high-volatility project is undertaken? (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your answers to the nearest whole dollar, e.g., 32.) b. What is the…
A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical de-mand is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of course, they don’t have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the physicians’ best guess is that there is a 50–50 chance the clinic will be successful. Construct a decision tree to help analyze this problem. What should the medical professionals do? Need to construction a Decision Tree using in Excel OM/QM, so if you could an use excel spreadsheet to solve, this would be idea
A businessman must decide whether to open a new mini grocery branch or simply extend the number of hours of its operation on its existing branch with a payoff of Php150,000. According to his friend, demand at a new location can either be low or high, which he probabilities are estimated to be 35% and 65%, respectively. If a new branch is opened and demand proves to be high, the businessman may choose to operate 24hrs (payoff is Php350, 000) or to operate 12hrs (payoff is Php200,000). If a new branch is opened and demand proves to be low, there is no need to operate on a 24-hr basis but instead, they will just stick to 12-hr operation with payoff of Php100,000 or enhance marketing strategy through advertising. Projected response to advertising may either be favorable or not favorable, with estimated probabilities of 40% and 60%, respectively. If demand is favorable, the payoff grows to Php310,000 and if the response in unfavorable, the payoff is Php120,000. The cost of advertising…
What is the difference between Maximum Foreseeable Loss(MFL), Probable Maximum Loss(PML), and Estimated Maximum Loss(EML)? Please use your own word :)
3-36 A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical demand is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of course, they don’t have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the physicians’ best guess is that there is a 50–50 chance the clinic will be successful. Construct a decision tree to help analyze this problem. What should the medical professionals do? (Construct a small decision tree from this problem, do the calculations/decisions, and highlight the final decision of the medical professionals.)
3-36 A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical demand is high (i.e., there is a favorable market for the clinic), the physicians could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favorable, they could lose $40,000. Of course, they don’t have to proceed at all, in which case there is no cost. In the absence of any market data, the physicians’ best guess is that there is a 50–50 chance the clinic will be successful. Construct (Draw) a small decision tree from this problem, do the calculations/decisions, and highlight the final decision of the medical professionals.
There are two outcomes: a good market and a bad market. , The decision table is presented below. There are four alternatives: do nothing, build a small plant, build a medium-size plant, and build a large plant. PAYOFFS Outcomes Alternatives Good market Bad market Do nothing $0 $0 Small Plant $30,000 ($10,000) Medium Plant $100,000 ($15,000) Large Plant $200,000 ($30,000) So you are to workout the Maximax, the Maximin, the Equally likely the Hurwicz based on a .11 probability and the regret using minimax. In words give the answers to these questions: What are your answers under: Answers Best payoff option for maximax is Common Stock Best payoff option for maximin is doing nothing Best payoff option for equally likely is Common Stock Best payoff option for Hurwicz is doing nothing Put a Bold Box around the word Outcomes Keep the Bad Market amounts in Red Ink Make the type style Ariel and Size 12 in Black
A manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses her firm's computer operations. According to her assistant, there are three options which merit consideration: A, B, and C. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: I, which has a probability of occurrence of .5; II, which has a probability of .3; and III, which has a probability of .2.If condition I materializes, A will cost USD 12,000, B will cost USD 20,000, and C will cost USD 16,000. If condition II materializes, the costs will be USD 15,000 for A, USD 18,000 for B, and USD 14,000 for C. If condition III materializes, the costs will be USD 10,000 for A, USD 15,000 for B, and USD 19,000 for C._____ alternative will yield the most profit_____ is the profit for the said alternative
Please answer the Number 4 question only about the probability as per attached problem. Show solution and illustration. Thanks

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