What advantages does adjusted exponential smoothing have over a linear trend line for forecasted demand that exhibits a trend?
Q: a. Obtain the linear trend equation for the following data on new checking accounts at Fair…
A:
Q: formula refers Naive Forecast method. O a. Forecast value for the current period = Last
A: To compute a naïve forecast just require the earlier month of sales and plug it in close to the…
Q: actual demand of a product in 2020 4300 units and the exponential smoothing method forecasts 4200…
A: Exponential smoothing refers to the process where the exponential window function is used to smooth…
Q: The Saki motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis–St. Paul area wants to make an accurate forecast of…
A: a) The Moving Average Forecast method uses the data from the past periods to forecast the value of…
Q: Simple exponential smoothing with α= 0.3 is being used to forecast sales of digital cameras at…
A: Given Information: Sales in September: 120 units Forecast in September: 100 units Alpha = 0.3…
Q: Which time-series model below assumes that demand in the next period will be equal to the most…
A: A time series is a series of data pinpoints (Listed or graphed) in the time order. Most typically, a…
Q: obtained
A: The answer to this question is true.
Q: In January, a car dealer predicted February demand for 142 Ford Mustangs. Actual February demand was…
A: Exponential smoothing is a method used for short term forecast value and it gives rough idea to…
Q: Please show work
A:
Q: Simple exponential smoothing with a 5 0.3 is being used to forecast sales of digital cameras at…
A: Given Smoothing constant a=0.3 Forecast for September = 100 cameras Sales in September = 120 cameras
Q: No single forecast methodology is appropriate under all conditions True or false?
A: Answer: What is Forecasting: Forecasting is an attempt to predict future events which will be used…
Q: A company has the following demand history by seasons over a two-year period. The production planner…
A: In this question, the production planner would deseasonalize the data set, to make such…
Q: Given the Exponential Smoothing Method, Actual Demand alpha = .25 and Forecast Demand alpha = 0.75,…
A: Forecasting is a method that uses past data as inputs to make informed estimations that are…
Q: Forecasts may be influenced by a product's position in its life cycle.. A) TRUE B) FALSE
A: The life cycle of a product defines the different stages from its beginning to its end in the market…
Q: snip
A: An exponential smoothing forecast becomes more responsive to changes in a data series when its alpha…
Q: Using the exponential smoothing forecast, is it possible to forecast a demand that isbigger than any…
A: Exponential Smoothing:- Like the past 2 techniques, guileless and moving midpoints, the dramatic…
Q: Forecast accuracy decreases with the long range forecast. True or False? Explain
A: Forecasting is a technique of predicting future events based on historical data and projecting them…
Q: A supermarket has experienced weekly demand of milk of D1 = 120, D2 = 127, D3 = 114, and D4 = 122…
A: Note: I have answered for 1st question. Kindly post the second question separately. Compute forecast…
Q: is based on the principle of using only the last observation in a sequence of stable data as a…
A: Here, question has asked about the forecasting technique that is based on the principle of using…
Q: A company's annual profits have a trend line given by Y = 10,000t + 5,000, where Y is the trend and…
A: Calculation of expected profit is as follows: In an additive model the time series is expressed as:…
Q: Moving Average method is always superior to Weighted moving average method for time series forecast
A: The moving method average is
Q: exponential functions for trend data. Assume an initial exponential Forecast of 620 units in period…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: 2-The correlation between rate and base are called the dynamic forecast. Select one: O True O False
A: Correlation is described as the relationship that exists between two different variables…
Q: they need a good forecast so that they will know how many fabrics to purchase and stock. For the…
A: The controlling input of the exponential smoothing calculation is defined as the smoothing factor…
Q: National Standard, Inc. sells radio frequency identification (RFID) tags. Monthly demand for a…
A: Note: - Since we only answer up to 3 sub-parts, we’ll answer the first3. Please resubmit the…
Q: Consider the manager of a large department store. Among other responsibilities, she is in charge of…
A: Deliberate the administrator of a large section store. Amid other tasks, she is in responsibility of…
Q: Thus historical demand for periods is 70, 60, 80 , and respectivelyWhat is the two-period weighted…
A: Using the 2 period weighted moving average method F(5) = 0.5*Actual (4) + 0.5*Actual(3) = 0.5*90 +…
Q: What are the advantages of exponential smoothing over the moving average and the weighted moving…
A: An exponential moving average (EMA) is an average that gives the most recent data points more weight…
Q: Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) states cooperative management of demand…
A: Inventory and supply chain are integral part of operation management. Here operations management is…
Q: The demand of a product showed a decreasing pattern during the last period. If the two last values…
A: The demand of a product showed a decreasing pattern during the last period if the two last values…
Q: c. Using simple exponential smoothing, what would your forecast be for this month if the…
A:
Q: What is the term for forecasts used for making day-to-day decisions about meeting demand?
A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future events using quantitative and qualitative methods…
Q: The manager of Carpet City outlet needs to make an accurate forecast of demand for Soft Shag Carpet…
A: Find the Given details below: Given details: Month Demand 1 8 2 12 3 7 4 9 5 15 6…
Q: A firm's short-term forecast helps top management in preparing a company budget. True or False True…
A: Short-term forecasts are mainly performed for tactical purposes that incorporate manufacturing,…
Q: The Holt method (exponential smoothing with trend andwithout seasonality) is being used to forecast…
A: Compute the new base estimate: Hence, the new base estimate is 48.2.
Q: Which time-series forecasting method works best if the company assumes that product demand will…
A: Forecasts are a basic input in the decision processes of operations management because they provide…
Q: Given the Exponential Smoothing Method, Actual Demand alpha = .25 and Forecast Demand alpha = 0.75,…
A: The formula for forecast using the exponential smoothening method.
Q: Explain the steps consists of Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR)?
A: collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR) technique - It is a technique which…
Q: In October a bike dealer pridicted November demand for 150 hero bikes, actual demand was 161 bikes.…
A: Forecasting is the process of prediction in which sales demand is estimated using historic…
Q: Exponential Smoothing gives always better results than any other similar method used for time-series…
A: Forecasting in the business management is described as the process through the probable demand in…
Q: is a method that utilizes the principle of using only the last observation in a sequence of stable…
A: ________ is a method that utilizes the principle of using only the last observation in a sequence of…
Q: The forecast for the month of March considering smoothing coefficient as 0.75 is.....
A: Exponential smoothing is a forecasting method for a data with 1 variable that can be used to…
Q: The manager of the Carpet City outlet needs to make an accurate forecast of the demand for Soft Shag…
A: Forecasting is very crucial for any business and nowadays businesses are surviving because of…
Q: The forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday's demand level and setting Monday's forecast…
A: WE ARE GIVEN WITH ACTUAL DEMAND AND FORECAST DEMAND OF MONDAY TO THURSDAY. WE ARE TO FIND FORECAST…
Q: Consider the following actual and forecast demand levels for Big Mac hamburgers at a local…
A: Let, Ft+1 = Forecast for friday Yt = 48.00 Ft = 77.60 α = 0.40 Thus expression for the forecast for…
Q: Does double exponential smoothing always forecast better than simple exponential smoothing when we…
A: SIMPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: The simplest of the exponential smoothing is the simple exponential…
Q: Demand for Soft Shag Month Carpet (1,000 yd.) 1…
A: Exponential smoothing forecast is extension of simple moving average forecast. In exponential…
Q: Using the double exponential smoothing forecast, is it possible to forecast a demand thatis bigger…
A: Forecasting is a prediction method that can use historical data and current market trends and…
Trending now
This is a popular solution!
Step by step
Solved in 2 steps
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
- The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?The file P13_28.xlsx contains monthly retail sales of U.S. liquor stores. a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?
- Do the sales prices of houses in a given community vary systematically with their sizes (as measured in square feet)? Answer this question by estimating a simple regression equation where the sales price of the house is the dependent variable, and the size of the house is the explanatory variable. Use the sample data given in P13_06.xlsx. Interpret your estimated equation, the associated R-square value, and the associated standard error of estimate.The file P13_19.xlsx contains the weekly sales of a particular brand of paper towels at a supermarket for a one-year period. a. Using a span of 3, forecast the sales of this product for the next 10 weeks with the moving averages method. How well does this method with span 3 forecast the known observations in this series? b. Repeat part a with a span of 10. c. Which of these two spans appears to be more appropriate? Justify your choice.The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a branch office of Northern Central Bank. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b? Is it guaranteed to produce better forecasts for the future?