Does double exponential smoothing always forecast better than simple exponential smoothing when we suppose that there is a increasing or decreasing trend.
Q: Explain the term for forecast that is used for making day to day decisions about meeting demand
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A: alpha of 1.0 leads to an exponential smoothing forecast similar to a naive forecast.
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A: Given Smoothing constant a=0.3 Forecast for September = 100 cameras Sales in September = 120 cameras
Q: No single forecast methodology is appropriate under all conditions True or false?
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A: Given: α=0.20β=0.41(F1)=9 unitsT1=2 units Months Actual Demand (At) Forecast (Ft) Trend (Tt)…
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A: Note: - Since the actual data for period 5 is not given, the trend-adjusted forecast can be made by…
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A: Linear trend equation is given by: y = a+bx here, a = intercept and b = slope Formulas used: a = ∑y…
Q: How to use the simple exponential smoothing method
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Q: Using the exponential smoothing forecast, is it possible to forecast a demand that isbigger than any…
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Q: Describe the exponential smoothing forecast?
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Q: Forecast accuracy decreases with the long range forecast. True or False? Explain
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Q: What is the basic difference between a weighted moving average and exponential smoothing?
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Q: exponential functions for trend data. Assume an initial exponential Forecast of 620 units in period…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: is based on the principle of using only the last observation in a sequence of stable data as a…
A: Option C is correct. The naive forecast is based on the principle of using only the last observation…
Q: Given is a historical time series for job services demand in the prior 6 months. Month Demand 1…
A: The weighted average is a forecasting method in which higher weight is given to the most recent data…
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A: Given data is Alpha = 0.6 Gamma = 0.8
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A:
Q: exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 19(00).
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Q: what are the benefits of exponential smoothing forecasting?
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A: Forecasting is the process of prediction in which sales demand is estimated using historic…
Q: Describe how is the moving average approach equivalent to exponential smoothing?
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Q: You have a data set that includes time period and past sales data, and you want to use a time series…
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A: For forecasting a new product with no historical data, Analogy is the most promising method.
Q: Three popular measures of forecast accuracy are: average error, median error, and maximum error.…
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Q: Forecast bias is useful to determine a. Seasonality b. Trends c. if forecast error is…
A: A forecast bias happens when there are differences between actual outcomes and previously generated…
Q: Explain how is the moving averages approach equivalent to exponential smoothing?
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A: The formula for forecast using the exponential smoothening method.
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A: Small Introduction about Forecast Control Because forecast explosion only creates exploded forecast…
Q: what is the advantage of using double exponential smoothing over regression?
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Q: Forecasting with exponential smoothing has been compared to driving a car while gazing in the…
A: To be determined: Forecasting with exponential smoothing has been compared to driving a car while…
Q: Sales volume of July was 390 Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant to find the…
A: Forecasting is the process of making assumptions of future events based on past and present…
Q: Explain how is the moving average equivalent to exponential smoothing
A: Moving approaches of smoothing and exponential average:
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A: To be determined: why such forecasting devices as moving average , weighted averages and…
Q: State and explain the weakness of standard forecasting technique in forecasting approaches
A: To be determined: the weakness of standard forecasting technique
Q: What advantages does adjusted exponential smoothing have over a linear trend line for forecasted…
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Q: Use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to forecast the firm’s August income. Assume that the…
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
- The file P13_29.xlsx contains monthly time series data for total U.S. retail sales of building materials (which includes retail sales of building materials, hardware and garden supply stores, and mobile home dealers). a. Is seasonality present in these data? If so, characterize the seasonality pattern. b. Use Winters method to forecast this series with smoothing constants = = 0.1 and = 0.3. Does the forecast series seem to track the seasonal pattern well? What are your forecasts for the next 12 months?In order to increase the responsiveness (volatility) of following forecast models, what can you do? Exponential Smoothing – describe in terms of “alpha value” (smoothing constant): Simple moving average - describe in terms of “averaging periods” (number of data points to use):Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand for period 11. Let α = 0.5, � = 0.3, and let the initial trend value be 12 and the initial forecast be 200
- What advantages does adjusted exponential smoothing have over a linear trend line for forecasted demand that exhibits a trend?in order to forecast a demand pattern that has a significant trend but no seasonality you can use both double exponential smoothing and regression. what is the advantage of using double exponential smoothing over regression?Which of these exponential smoothing models should be used, and what smoothing parameters should be used with these models to obtain the best expected overall accuracy from forecasts? Explain
