What is the final value of the decision tree?
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What is the final value of the decision tree?
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- 1. Suppose you are going on a weekend trip to a city that is d miles away. Develop a model that determines your round-trip gasoline costs. What assumptions or approximations are necessary to treat this model as a deterministic model? Are these assumptions or approximations acceptable to you? 2. Suppose that a manager has a choice between the following two mathematical models of a given situation: (a)a relatively simple model that is a reasonable approximation of the real situation, and (b)a thorough and complex model that is the most accurate mathematical representation of the real situation possible. Why might the model described in part (a) be preferred by the manager?Confederate Express Service is attempting to determinehow its shipping costs for a month depend on the numberof units shipped during a month. For the last 15 months, thenumber of units shipped and total shipping cost are given inTable 24 (file Ship.xls). Units TotalMonth Shipped Shipping Cost1 300 $1,0602 400 $1,3803 500 $1,6404 200 $7405 300 $1,0606 350 $1,1907 460 $1,5208 480 $1,5809 120 $54010 760 $2,42011 580 $2,20012 340 $1,47013 120 $79014 100 $72015 500 $1,960In a typical product mix model, where a companymust decide how much of each product to produceto maximize profit, discuss possible situations wherethere might not be any feasible solutions. Could thesebe realistic? If you had such a situation in your company, how might you proceed?
- J&J has given you $12 million to spend on advertising Huggys diapers during the next 12 months. Atthe beginning of January, Huggys has a 30% market7.9 Conclusion 401share. During any month, 10% of the people whopurchase Huggys defect to brand X, and a fraction0.2a1y2 of customers who usually buy brand X switchto Huggys, where a is the amount spent on advertisingin millions of dollars. For example, if you spend $4million during a month, 40% of brand X’s customersswitch to Huggys. Your goal is to maximize J&J’saverage market share during the next 12 months,where the average is computed from each month’sending share. Determine an appropriate advertisingpolicy. (Hint: Make sure you enter a nonzero trialvalue for each month’s advertising expense or Solvermight give you an error message.)In a typical product mix model, where a companymust decide how much of each product to produceto maximize profit, discuss possible situations wherethere might not be any feasible solutions. Could these be realistic? If you had such a situation in your com-pany, how might you proceed?3. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.4), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. Show the work on excel file. SIZE OF FIRST STATION GOOD MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET ($) ($) ($) Small 50,000 20,000 -10,000 Medium 80,000 30,000 -20,000 Large 100,000 30,000 -40,000 Very large 300,000 25,000 -160,000
- #17FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLEMARKET MARKETEQUIPMENT ( $) ($)Sub 100 300,000 –200,000Oiler J 250,000 –100,000Texan 75,000 –18,000For example, if Ken purchases a Sub 100 and ifthere is a favorable market, he will realize a profitof $300,000. On the other hand, if the market is unfavorable, Ken will suffer a loss of $200,000. ButKen has always been a very optimistic decisionmaker.(a) What type of decision is Ken facing?(b) What decision criterion should he use?(c) What alternative is best? #18Although Ken Brown (discussed in Problem 3-17) is the principal owner of Brown Oil, his brother Bob iscredited with making the company a financial success. Bob is vice president of finance. Bob attributeshis success to his pessimistic attitude about business and the oil industry. Given the information fromProblem 3-17, it is likely that Bob will arrive at a different decision. What decision criterion should Bobuse, and what alternative…Use the table below to answer the questions that follow and caculate the Expected Monetary Value(EMV) of the different outcomesDECISION TABLE WITH CONDITIONAL VALUESSTATE OF NATUREFAVORABLE OUTCOME UNFAVORABLE OUTCOMEALTERNATIVES ($) ($)Start a big Company 2,000,000 -500,000Start a small company 800,000 -200,000Build Nothing 0 0Probabilities 0.3 0.7Calculate the following The EMV Maximin criterion Maximax criterion Minimax criterionI need help with everything, please. Formulate the problem and submit formulation - no need to solve. 1. An investment advisor at Shore Financial Services wants to develop a model that can be used to allocate investment funds among four alternatives: stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and cash. For the coming investment period, the company developed estimates of the annual rate of return and the associated risk for each alternative. Risk is measured using an index between 0 and 1, with higher risk values denoting more volatility and thus more uncertainty. Because cash is held in a money market fund, the annual return is lower, but it carries essentially no risk. The objective is to determine the portion of funds allocated to each investment alternative in order to maximize the total annual return for the portfolio subject to the risk level the client is willing to tolerate. Total risk is the sum of the risk for all investment alternatives. For instance, if 40% of a client’s funds are…
- The general manager of XXX Factoring is about to decide whether to enterinto the small and medium enterprise (SME) market. XX Company's customers so far have been mostly big-size companies. The decision to provide factoring to SMEs would mean entering into a new market. Turkey's economy increasingly rely on SMEs, and XX Company doesn't want to jeopardize Company’s position in the market. However, the company also wants to grow fast. Conduct an industry analysis using Porter’s 5 Forces.An investor has a certain amount of money available to invest now. Three alternative investmentsare available. The estimated profit in Kwacha of each investment under each economic conditionare indicated in the following payoff table:Event Investment SelectionA B CEconomy declines 500 -2000 -7000No charge 1000 2000 -1000Economy Expand 2000 5000 20,000Based on his own past experience, the investor assigns the following probabilities to eacheconomic condition:( )( )( )Economy declines 0.30No change 0.50Economy expands 0.20PPP===i. Determine the optimal action based on the maximax criterion ii. Determine the optimal action based on the maximin criterion iii. Compute the expected monetary value (EMV) for each investment iv. Compute the expected opportunity loss (EOL) for each investment v. Explain the meaning of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in thisproblem vi. Based on the results of (iii) and (iv), which investment would you choose?vii. Compute the coefficient of…Integrated Products Corporation (IPC) needs to estimate its PC sales for next year.The most recent six years of revenue data for the company’s line of XT PersonalComputers, and those of the industry, is found in the table below:Year XT PC Sales Revenue($’000,000)All Industry PC Sales Revenue($’000,000,000)1 2.4 4.62 5.9 8.63 15.5 10.74 27.8 14.85 35.9 18.56 38.1 19.4Required:A. Assuming that the sales data above are representative of sales expected nextyear, use time series regression analysis to forecast next year’s sales revenues(there is no seasonal effect).B. Perform a regression analysis between the annual sales revenues of XTPersonal Computers and all industry PC annual sales revenues. What is theforecast for next year’s sales revenue for XT Personal Computers if the estimateof next year’s industry PC sales revenues is $21.9 billion? C. Advise management at Integrated Products Corporation (IPC) which of the twosales estimates from parts A and B above they should use. Justify your…