You're a contestant on a TV game show. In the final round of the game, if contestants answer a question correctly, they will increase their current winnings of $3 million to $4 million. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $2,250,000. You belleve you have a 25% chance of answering the question correctly. Ignoring your current winnings, your expected payoff from playing the final round of the game show is $ Given that this is , you play the final round of the game. (Hint: Enter a negative sign If the expected payoff is negative.) The lowest probability of a correct guess that would make the guessing in the final round profitable (In expected value) Is what probability does playing the final round yleld an expected value of zero?) (Hint: At

You're a contestant on a TV game show. In the final round of the game, if contestants answer a question correctly, they will increase their current winnings of $3 million to $4 million. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $2,250,000. You belleve you have a 25% chance of answering the question correctly. Ignoring your current winnings, your expected payoff from playing the final round of the game show is $ Given that this is , you play the final round of the game. (Hint: Enter a negative sign If the expected payoff is negative.) The lowest probability of a correct guess that would make the guessing in the final round profitable (In expected value) Is what probability does playing the final round yleld an expected value of zero?) (Hint: At

Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach

5th Edition

ISBN:9781337106665

Author:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Publisher:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Chapter17: Making Decisions With Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 17.5IP

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You're a contestant on a TV game show. In the final round of the game, if contestants answer a question correctly, they will increase their current winnings of $1 million to $3 million. If they are wrong, their prize is decreased to $750,000. You believe you have a 25% chance of answering the question correctly. Ignoring your current winnings, your expected payoff from playing the final round of the game show is [$ blank]. Given that this is positive [blank (positive/negative)], you should [blank (should/should not)] play the final round of the game. (Hint: Enter a negative sign if the expected payoff is negative.) The lowest probability of a correct guess that would make the guessing in the final round profitable (in expected value) is [blank]. (Hint: At what probability does playing the final round yield an expected value of zero?)
17-5. You are offered the following gamble based on coin flips. If the first head occurs on the first flip , you get $2 IF the first head occurs on the second flip you get $4, and so on, so that is the first head is on the Nth flip , you get $2N. The game ends only when a flip on the coin results in heads. What is the expected value of this gamble? When offered, most people say they would only pay less than $10 to play this game. What are two reasons why people are willing to pay so much less than the expected value?
You are considering a $500,000 investment in the fast-food industry and have narrowed your choice to either a McDonald’s or a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise. McDonald’s indicates that, based on the location where you are proposing to open a new restaurant, there is a 25 percent probability that aggregate 10-year profits (net of the initial investment) will be $16 million, a 50 percent probability that profits will be $8 million, and a 25 percent probability that profits will be −$1.6 million. The aggregate 10-year profit projections (net of the initial investment) for a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise is $48 million with a 2.5 percent probability, $8 million with a 95 percent probability, and −$48 million with a 2.5 percent probability. Considering both the risk and expected profitability of these two investment opportunities, which is the better investment? Explain carefully.
In a final round of a MegaMillion TV show, a contestant has won $1 millionand has a chance of doubling the reward. If he loses his winnings drop to$500,000. The contestant thinks his chances of winning are 50%. Should heplay? What is the lowest probability of a correct guess that will make his betprofitable? Show work
Matthew is playing snooker (more difficult variant of pool) with his friend. He is not sure which strategy to choose for his next shot. He can try and pot a relatively difficult red ball (strategy R1), which he will pot with probability 0.4. If he pots it, he will have to play the black ball, which he will pot with probability 0.3. His second option (strategy R2) is to try and pot a relatively easy red, which he will pot with probability 0.7. If he pots it, he will have to play the blue ball, which he will pot with probability 0.6. His third option, (strategy R3) is to play safe, meaning not trying to pot any ball and give a difficult shot for his opponent to then make a foul, which will give Matthew 4 points with probability 0.5. If potted, the red balls are worth 1 point each, while the blue ball is worth 5 points, and the black ball 7 points. If he does not pot any ball, he gets 0 point. By using the EMV rule, which strategy should Matthew choose? And what is his expected…
Consider a game where there is a $2,520 prize if a player correctly guesses the outcome of a fair 7-sided die roll.Cindy will only play this game if there is a nonnegative expected value, even with the risk of losing the payment amount.What is the most Cindy would be willing to pay?
The mixed stratergy nash equalibrium consists of : the probability of firm A selecting October is 0.692 and probability of firm A selecting December is 0.309. The probability of firm B selecting October is 0.5 and probability of firm selecting December is 0.5. In the equilibrium you calculated above, what is the probability that both consoles are released in October? In December? What are the expected payoffs of firm A and of firm B in equilibrium?
You and a rival are engaged in a game in which there are three possible outcomes: you win, your rival wins (you lose), or the two of you tie. You get a payoff of 50 if you win, a payoff of 20 if you tie, and a payoff of 0 if you lose. What is your expected payoff in each of the following situations? (a) There is a 50% chance that the game ends in a tie, but only a 10% chance that you win. (There is thus a 40% chance that you lose.) (b) There is a 50–50 chance that you win or lose. There are no ties. (c) There is an 80% chance that you lose, a 10% chance that you win, and a 10% chance that you tie.
When a famous painting becomes available for sale, it is often known which museum or collector will be the likely winner. Yet, the auctioneer actively woos representatives of other museums that have no chance of winning to attend anyway. Suppose a piece of art has recently become available for sale and will be auctioned off to the highest bidder, with the winner paying an amount equal to the second highest bid. Assume that most collectors know that Valerie places a value of $15,000 on the art piece and that she values this art piece more than any other collector. Suppose that if no one else shows up, Valerie simply bids $15,000/2=$7,500 and wins the piece of art. The expected price paid by Valerie, with no other bidders present, is $________.. Suppose the owner of the artwork manages to recruit another bidder, Antonio, to the auction. Antonio is known to value the art piece at $12,000. The expected price paid by Valerie, given the presence of the second bidder Antonio, is $_______. .
Each of the two players independently (and simultaneously with the other) decides whether to go to a play or a concert. Each would rather go with the other to a concert than with them to a play, but prefers this to not being together, in which case they don't care where they go alone. Additionally, each is indifferent between attending the play together and participating in a lottery where both go to the concert with a probability of ¾ and to different events with a probability of ¼. Describe the game in matrix form and find all its equilibria under the assumption that the players have von Neumann-Morgenstern preferences.
A company invests on selling computer units worth Php 32,000.00. The probability of maintaining this price throughout the year is 65% while that of less or more than 10% the expected are 15% and 20%, (a) what is the probability that the selling price for that year is more than the expected price? a. 0.8 b. 0.85 c. 0.25 d. 0.2 e. 1 f. 0.15 g. 0.65
A drug company is considering investing $100 million today to bring a weight loss pill to the market. At the end of one year, the firm will know the payoff; there is a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a high price and generate $37 million per year of profit forever and a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a low price and generate $I million per year of profit forever. The interest rate is 10%. Suppose the firm decides to wait one year to determine whether the pill will sell at a high or low price. The firm will not invest if it learns that the pill will sell at a low price. What is the net present value of waiting one year to make the investment?O $88 millionO$122.72 millionO $201.22 millionO $64.5 million