Cumulative Representation Uncertainty

Reasoning is mental process of looking for beliefs, conclusions, actions or feelings. Humans are able to engage in reasoning using Introspection; involving self-observation and examination of one 's own thoughts and feelings. Human reasoning starts in early childhood when a child has to face a problem, he/she has to develop reasoning in order to solve it. This development of reasoning occurs from infancy through adolescence. Once children are able to represent the world, form concepts and categories, then they are well able to reason about and solve problems.

Deductive Reasoning — The ability to apply general rules to specific problems to produce answers that make sense.|

This was tested with the famous paradox known as The Ellsberg Paradox, which indicates that decision makers are often ambiguity averse, preferring options with subjectively known probabilities to options with unknown probabilities (Weber & Tan, 2012) Similarly, Risk Aversion could be described as, when an individual is presented with two options they choose the option with a lower risk. People were willing to take the risk in Round 5 because they knew that although there was a chance of numerous participants contributing the maximum value, there would still be some amount they would benefit from and receive. However in round 6 there was a chance that they may not participate in the coin toss and there is a 50% chance they may not receive anything at all. Although they pay-offs were higher there was a still a greater probability they may not receive the

The first area was the availability heuristic section. There were two biases that indicated whether or not you were making the right decision. The first was ease of recall, or the fact that we tend to decide things based on what comes to mind easily. The second was retrievability, the fact that we base decisions on the frequency of a particular pattern or event. We base many of our decisions on these two concepts.

Prospect theory is an important alternative descriptive theory for decision-making under unreliable situation (Kahneman and Tversky 1979), which includes real life selection and psychological analysis between choices that involve risk. Prospect theory, which efforts to explain individual make decisions between risky replacements based on the value of potential gains and losses (Wakker 2010), advanced from expected utility theory, which explains that investors want to maximize expected utility of wealth when unclearly situations (Blavatskyy 2007). According to Kahneman and Tversky (1992), more recent researches perceived nonlinear preferences in choices that do not involve definite events in prospective theory. The concept of framing effect refers description invariances (Kahneman and Tversky 1992). To be specific, individual always makes the same decision in identical choice conditions. Also, decision makers have tendency to

The decision making process includes cognitive processes that eventually lead to a choice in action while taking into consideration the alternative possibilities (Allen, Dorozenko, & Roberts, 2016). Not all choices have to lead to an action. The values and preferences of the person making the choice also comes into play when making the final decision. Problem-solving to obtain a certain goal or satisfactory by a solution is the main reason people go through the decision making process (Stefaniak, & Tracey, 2014). This process has many factors that end with one final result or solution. The decisions made can be rational or irrational and can be determined by explicit or tacit knowledge (Qingyao, Dongyu, & Weihua, 2016). Since the decision making process can be very difficult at time, psychologists have viewed the process in different perspectives to get a better understanding (Rossi, Picchi, Di Stefano, Marongiu, & Scarsini, 2015). The different perspectives include; psychological, cognitive, and normative or communicative rationality.

Each of us is confronted with decisions in our everyday lives that require us to gather and assess information on the different alternatives at hand and then make a decision. Examples of such decisions include the decision to attend college, buy a car or some other item, strike up a friendship with Person A or B, select a particular course, or take a trip to Point X or Y. You may have made an error in such decisions because your information was flawed by one or more of the errors of human inquiry that Babbie describes, or the decision may have been correct but for some of the wrong reasons. Recall and describe a decision you have made that may have been flawed to some extent

Risk literature often separates 'risk ' from 'uncertainty ', defining the risk as a measurable probability that something will happen, however, even where experts claim they can give an exact probability value to a risk, there is always a possibility that the experts may be wrong (Hansson 2002 p4). In common usage the words 'risk ' and 'uncertainty ' are often synonymous (Lupton 1999 p9)

This paper deals with uncertainty reduction theory from its origin to date. Ever since uncertainty reduction theory was first created, many researchers have examined it by comparing it with other theories. Uncertainty reduction theory had been tested across different cultures in order to confirm its generalizability. It had also been applied to real life situations to examine how individuals interact in their initial encounters with strangers. In addition, researchers suggested testing uncertainty reduction theory beyond initial encounters rather than strangers. Finally, criticisms were provided for potential future studies.

However, it’s unknown exactly what kinds of situations will cause ambiguity to be avoided or preferred. The literature is also unclear as to whether the reaction is from the, “missing probability parameter itself, or (2) motivational or attributional factors…” (Rode et al. 1999) associated with comparing opitions. The authors hypothesized that, “people associate ambiguous probabilities with highly variable outcomes” (Rode et al. 1999). If the outcome that the person needs is higher than the average payoff of each option, then the person should actually default to the ambiguous option because it would have more variability, which could have a greater chance

This book Logical Reasoning by Bradley H. Dowden is licensed under a Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported License. That is, you are free to share, copy, distribute, store, and

When humans make a decision, it often turns out to be “predictably irrational” (Ariely, 2009). They always deviate systematically from expected decision rather show an inclination towards a certain way of thinking. This consistency of behavioral or decision bias can be very helpful to identify consequences or outcomes in a different

In order to master critical thinking, the ability to question information and solve problems must be present. The crucial steps that lead to successful decision-making is not based solely on our skills and abilities, but on the strategies that help us get there. All these steps combined allow us to make solid and intelligent decisions. Research on understanding how the mind works is a continuing project at best, but the progress we have made is substantial in the areas of understanding problem-solving and decision-making.

Decision-making is always critical in people’s day-to-day lives. Individuals have to make choices between the very many options they have at their disposal. In doing so, sound judgement is needed, accompanied by much sobriety (Fay, & Montague, 2014). However, in trying to make sound decisions people always base their opinions on certain reference points. In fact, psychologists have generated much data, which shows that people rely so much on the pieces of information that they get to the extent that their judgement is affected. This usually presents the challenge of not making the best decision (Kansal & Sing, 2015).

In computing – programming there is almost always more than one solution to a problem and this is where Logical Reasoning used to. The main use of Logical Reasoning is to anticipate the outcomes of the algorithms that are designed to solve a problem, to help select the best solution. Consequently Logical reasoning is the systematic application of rules to problem solving and task completion. These rules could be mathematical, logical, programming, grammatical, engineering, scientific, story construction in fact anybody of rules based around a logical system.