Cumulative Representation Uncertainty

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Reasoning is a cognitive process that includes acting on information and data to reach conclusions. It requires the extraction of a certain conclusion from examinations, assumptions or facts. In formal reasoning problems the information necessary for drawing an inference is distinctly stated, and there is a single correct answer that can be found by applying an algorithm. In informal reasoning problems, there is no single correct solution. Instead there are either predictions, or heuristics- “cognitive rules of thumb, hard-wired mental shortcuts that everyone uses every day in routine decision making and judgment” . One of these heuristics is called anchoring and adjustment, and claims that humans tend to make a decision based on the first piece of information they are exposed to, suggesting that this is why the final decision is typically bias towards the anchor (this first piece of information).…show more content…
The aim of this research was to investigate the Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty. The researchers recruited 25 graduate students from Berkeley and Stanford (12 men and 13 women). The experiment was conducted on a computer. In trial, the computer exhibited a possible event (for example, 25% chance to win $150 and 75% chance to win $50) and its expected value. The display also included a descending series of seven certain outcomes (gains or losses, not in-between) logarithmically spaced between the extreme outcomes of the prospect. The subject chose between each of the seven sure outcomes and the risky
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