Impact Of Brexit Referendum On Indian Stock Market Essay

Page 3: Introduction to the Financial System Page 7: Commercial Banks Page 12: The Share Market and the Corporation Page 15: Corporations Issuing Equity into the Share Market Page 19: Investors in the Share Market Page 24: Short-term Debt Page 28: Medium- to Long-term Debt Page 32: Interest Rate Determination and Forecasting Page 37: The Foreign Exchange Market Page 40: Factors that Influence the Exchange Rate Page 42: Futures Contracts and Forward Rate Agreements Page 47: Options

In order to study how stock prices react to these events, approximate three years of continuous daily stock price are chose, beginning at 17th March 2008 and ending more than three months after the final event at 22nd April 2011. In addition, SHANGHAI Stock Exchange Index (SSE) is adopted as a proxy of the market portfolio.

Since its foundation events study has paved the opportunity for scholars to investigate the impact of news and information releases relative to stock price in the markets. Its roots can be traced back as early as in 1930’s. According to a study by MacKinlay (1997) in his paper, cited an early paper was pioneered by Dooley (1933) who examined the stock price reaction to stock split announcements. In subsequent years, the significance of events study became an irresistible subject as it attracted the attention of John H. Myers and Archie Bakay (1948), C. Austin Baker (1956, 1957, 1958), and John Ashley (1962) who used events study methodology. A substantial number of studies have investigated the reaction of stock prices

In the last three months of 2008, under the general decline in the global stock market, numerous Asian stock markets were in free fall. The key stock index such as Nikkei 225 in Japan, Hangseng in Hongkong and Sensex in India suffered significant drops. (Rose & Spiegel, 2009)

The second and chief objective is to assess the impact of the crisis on the foreign exchange and stock markets. The report answers why the crisis adversely affected the Latin American market indices while the US market indices continued to rise.

Major stock market indices globally are trading near the high levels of 2007-2008. Some countries like India have surpassed the previous highs of 2008, and are trading comfortably higher (^BSE, Jan 2008: 20,000 approx.; May 2016: 25,000

Back to the time of the Silk Road, India had become a special place where the European powers had come to desire because it was located in the middle, between Europe and China. By the 1700s during the Battle of Plassey, the British had colonized India and turned it into their second home. The British East India Company took over India but not all the Indians believed that the British belonged there. In India, the British had made changes that affected the economy, the government and the social lifestyle of the people. These changes were both positive and negative. The beneficial impacts were changing the government the Indians already had by allowing more choices, increasing the economy, and lastly providing education. Even though the British

The decision of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union has served in reshaping the way politics works in Europe. On June 3rd, 2016 a massive 30 million people came out to vote on the future of their countries. In the end, the vote to leave won 51.9% to 48.1%. Places like England and Wales both voted in favor of the exit, while Scotland and Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly to stay in. While the long term effects of this decision obviously need time to be observed, the immediate economic impact has been somewhat mixed. The day after the vote was a cause for concern in that “the pound slumped after the referendum - and remains around 10% lower against the dollar and 15% down against the euro” (Wheeler 17). In contrast to this,

The premise of an efficient market is that stock prices adjust accordingly as information is received. The speed and accuracy of the pricing changes are a reflection of the strength of the market efficiency, where in theory a perfectly efficient market will re-adjust prices immediately and precisely with new information. The efficient market hypothesis aligns with beliefs about whether technical and fundamental analyses are useful in making investment decisions or whether a passive approach is appropriate. In a perfectly efficient market, these types of analyses are not able to predict stock price trends (based on market inefficiencies or price abnormalities) which could assist in portfolio positioning or investment management. However, some investors belive that the market pricing is not precise and that there are timing windows and pricing trends that can be identified through analysis of past performance and finding price abnormalities where all information is not correctly reflected in the stock price (Hirt, Block and Basu, 2006).

The 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) (Shah 2009, p. 25) has caused the share prices of BHP, CBA and TLS to drop rapidly from 2008 to 2009, apparent from the 10-year historical data of the three companies’ share price (Appendix 1). This shows that the all three companies’ share prices are influenced by the GFC, which means the GFC has the similar result in the calculation of three stocks’ expected return. Hence, the data from that period are included in the data choice.

The “Great Recession” is commonly used to explain the massive economic contraction that occurred in the United States during the fourth quarter of 2007. However, the actions of the United States spanned to other nations, leaving massive effect on the global economy. One nation that took on serious financial burden during this recession was the United Kingdom. This nation first faced the effects of the Great Recession beginning in the first quarter of 2008. Overall, the initial mass effects on the nation can be attributed to the nation’s reliance on the financial sector. In fact, after partially stabilizing in 2009, the country struggled with a double-dip recession between 2010-12, and continues to struggle with some of these effects.

1. Historical prices for both the firms and BSE 500 were collected during the event period from day -60 to day +60, and Day 0 being the announcement day.

Due to Brexit London Stock Exchange crashed and it saw trillions of pounds wiped off from UK’s share market. The share market became volatile. The investors of UK’s share market decided to move their funds to other European share market in Germany and Ireland and France. As a result pound lost its exchange value for the first time in last 15

It is precise that we begin by explaining the meaning of the term “Brexit”; it is a portmanteau of the words “Britain” and “Exit”, which was just one of the terms for the results of the 2016 referendum, the other one was “Bremain” (Britain and remain) which was a lot less promoted and controversial. For the 2016 referendum, 52% of the votes went for Britain leaving the European Union, in a poll with 72% of participation, a total of 33.577.342 votes, 17.410.742 for Brexit and 16.577.342 for Britain staying in the European Union (BBC World, 2016). England voted for Brexit, by 53.4% to 46.6%, as did Wales, with Leave getting 52.5% of the vote and Remain 47.5%. Scotland and Northern Ireland both backed staying in the EU. Scotland backed Remain by 62% to 38%, while 55.8% in Northern Ireland voted Remain and 44.2% Leave (Hunt and Wheeler, 2016).

As indicated by the case study S&P 500 index was use as a measure of the total return for the stock market. Our standard deviation of the total return was used as a one measure of the risk of an individual stock. Also betas for individual stocks are determined by simple linear regression. The variables were: total return for the stock as the dependent variable and independent variable is the total return for the stock. Since the descriptive statistics were a lot, only the necessary data was selected (below table.)