Increasing Student Retention: A Predictive Model of Undergraduate Degree Non-Completion
Abstract
This study seeks to develop a predictive model of college student dropout, using aggregate high school variables and individual postsecondary achievement variables to predict non-graduating students’ academic year of departure. After performing multiple linear regression and discriminant function analysis, the research found that a cohort of students admitted in the fall 2007 semester from several universities could be assigned an academic year of departure using data readily available by the end of a student’s third academic term. The university can use this model to predict student departure and improve the effectiveness of student retention efforts by focusing on targeted times when at-risk students are predicted to drop out.
Introduction
While many academic, psychological, and institutional variables influencing undergraduate student dropout have been studied, these factors have generally only been examined using models that treat student dropout as a binary, dependent variable. One of the shortcomings of using logistic regression in the study of undergraduate dropout is that it restricts the study’s ability to infer when a given student is likely to drop out. In contrast, the present study considered undergraduate dropout as occurring over a set of intervals, in this case academic terms, and sought to identify those crucial times when students are considering departure
(b) Data from a longitudinal study that followed a cohort of 205,337 Florida students as 9th graders in 2000-01 through 2007-08 (post-secondary) was used. This timeframe includes high school graduation rates, drop-out events and post-secondary outcomes. Excluded from the study are those that transferred out of the state system during that time frame, leaving the sample size to 181,897. Another dataset was utilized to
The college drop-out and failure rate in North America is unacceptably high and it’s becoming a huge problem. In fact, US News reports that “30% of college freshmen drop out after their first year of college” (Bowler 2). There are quite a few reasons students drop out of College. Whether it’s having a child or working two jobs, it’s hard for most students to balance college and life. Some of the main causes of dropping out include nontraditional situations, mental issues such as stress or anxiety, and lack of self-knowledge.
In October 2000, the overall picture of high school dropouts had changed little since the late 1980s (Kaufman et al. 2001): For every 100 young adults enrolled in high school in October 1999, 5 had left school without completing a program; of 34.6 million U.S. young adults aged 16-24, 3.8 million—almost 11 percent—had not completed high school and were not enrolled. Some studies have shown that students in schools with a concentration of multiple risk factors (e.g., large schools, large classes, high poverty, inner city location) have less than one chance in two of graduating from high school; furthermore, the economic costs of dropping out have increased as time goes on (Castellano et al. 2001). Adjusting for 50
“Dropping out of school does not seem to happen overnight; it comes after a long term process of frustration and failure” (Balfanz par 2). According to the National Center for Education Statistics, The population studied students attending Baltimore schools and gathered research that indicates how low test scores and report card grades as early as the 1st grade are reliable sources of whether students would later drop out(Alexander, Entwisle and Kabbani par.6). Also having to go through grade retention as early as kindergarten is also connected to why the dropout rate has reached a dynamic level (Kaufman and Bradby par.6). Whoever decides to drops out has no type of support, encouragement, or ambition starting at such a young age.
There are other factors associated with early school leaving. Researchers have focused on three different topics. First topic, student and family factors identified as contributing to dropouts is gender, racial, and ethnic minority status, low socioeconomic status, poor school performance, low self-esteem, delinquency, substance abuse, and pregnancy. In addition to this research has also gathered the impact of certain family characteristics, such as single-families,
High school dropout rate is a significant indicator of future success in life. For high school dropouts, it is harder to find jobs and earn as much money as their graduated peers. On the outside looking in, not being able to graduate is usually associated with school performance, socioeconomic status, parents’ education level and/or lack of motivation. Moreover, there are also underlying factors of race and gender and they both affect performance in high school immensely. In order to study dropout rates, focus should be put on the group of students at risk of dropping out.
It dispels and tracks the drop out myth of the 1990. That statistic fueled an urgency, but the statistic was wrong. It also discusses how widespread this myth had become because bad news is always popular. Statistics need to have a discerning eye applied to avoid propagating errors. The good news presented
The seminal works of Spady (1970) first focused on the precursor concept of integration in higher education by adapting Durkheim’s (1951) social causation theory to create a model for college dropouts. Later, Tinto’s (1993) theory of student departure was developed to provide a framework for understanding what factors and environments impact a student’s decision to drop out. Tinto (1993) theorized that the first-year semester is a prime environment for students to consider social integration and campus engagement. Tinto’s (1993) theory of student departure is a longitudinal model that explains the interaction between the student and the institution which results in individuals dropping out, and identifies the factors that result in different types of dropout behavior.
Attrition is the rate in which students disenroll from a post-secondary institution, which was defined in O’Keeffe’s (2013) article. Past research has suggested that the lack of participation and the culture shock of some students have contributed in such high attrition rates (O 'Keeffe, 2013). From the outcomes of these researches, universities have implemented programs to retain and increase retention rates. However, when it comes to attrition rates, it seems that one population of students goes unnoticed.
Many institutions face challenges retaining and graduating community college students. Students, faculty, staff, and administrators need work together to find ways to help these students succeed. Through the use of the Achieving the Dream initiative, the organization can help community colleges and their students to stay with their school and become successful academically and professionally.
The path to graduation can be long, unpredictable and quite confusing. This article “California Dropout Research Project” shows how the Los Angeles School District tried to explain what are the factors that come into to place that prevent certain student from graduating high school on time. Some of the factors are race, gender, and income. The chapter that mainly focuses on income indicates in order understand dropout crisis requires understanding the academic and
Many colleges and universities throughout the United States and several other countries face a common problem. Student retention is a growing problem across the nation for all ethnic groups and all ages. Each individual who chooses to drop out of school has their own personal reasons as to why they do. However, many drops out can be completely avoided. When students drop out they are not clearly thinking about how it’s going to affect their future, the future of their children and even grandchildren. Although there are several reasons as to why students drop out of school, we will be exploring a few as it relates to why student retention is a growing problem.
In conducting a research study about college completion, I must generate a hypothesis that correlates with the situation that college students are facing when it comes to them finishing their post-higher education. Within reading the U.S Department of Education statements about the college completion rate for students with low economical and higher- economical background helps me set my hypotheses, Economical background affects graduation rates. Within my research study for college completion, I would use the method of Secondary data analysis. I would use this method because data has already been researched by universities and the government to study the dropout and the graduation rates as well as the demographics of the study body. I would
College graduation and dropout rates have long been used as a central indicator of education system productivity and effectiveness and of social and economic well-being. Today, interest in the accuracy and usefulness of these statistics is particularly acute owing to a confluence of circumstances, including changing demographics, new legislative mandates, and heightened political pressures to reduce the incidence of dropping out. Students who are unable to pass the assessments may simply leave school before graduating. Not everyone drops out because they lack the determination to finish, instead they run into another obstacle while equipped with the motivation. Those of which are trying to regulate the balance of work and school, unexpected family problems, and financial problems.
Will negatively affect a student's future. Bob Keeshan once said,”Children don't drop out of High School when they are 16 they do so in the first grade and wait 10 years to make it official.” Throughout the years studies have shown that in a year 1.2 million students drop out. Which leads that only 25% of High School students during their freshman year fail to graduate. Dropouts in the United States have became a very trending thing we must get to the bottom of this problem. Young adults should not be making these decisions it's time to step in.