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MAT 540 MIDTERM EXAM
1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
2. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.
3. A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
5. A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
6. Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
7. The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
8. Qualitative methods are
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27. The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
28. A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
29. An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
30. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?
31. Consider the following distribution and random numbers: If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.
32. Given the
a) In the first set of calculations, the staff used a discount rate of 20%, a five-year time horizon, and ignored taxes and terminal value. What is the relative attractiveness of these three alternatives?
General Foods is a large corporation organized by product lines. They are evaluating Super Project, the manufacture of a new powdered dessert. Crosby Sanberg, a financial analysis manager, must determine the value in accepting the proposal, along with J.C. Kresslin, the Corporate Controller. The Super Project will increase profit with a payback period of less than ten years. The proposed capital investment for the project is $200,000 ($80,000 for building modifications and $120,000 for machinery and equipment) and production would take place
distribution with an average of 2 per 30 second period. What is the probability of having
1. (10 pts.) Discuss how organizational architecture and corporate culture are related. Use an example of a real-life firm and discuss how its corporate culture blends with its organizational architecture.
Using the demand data supplied in the below table, please calculate the following from an Amazon forecasting perspective:
The number of cell phone minutes used by high school seniors follows a normal distribution with a mean of 500 and a standard deviation of 50. What is the probability that a student uses more than 350 minutes?
be possible to compare the payoffs and, therefore, decide which one would be the best option for
Four and ¼. Chapter 3.2: Basic Terms of Probability Basic Probability Terms Example: If you roll a die, then…. Experiment: rolling the die Possible outcomes: 1,2,3,4,5,6 Sample space: S= {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Generate random number from the break down calculate breakdown time. Generate random number from the repair distribution and calculate repair time require to get the machine repaired. Generate random numbers between 2000 to 8000 and estimate lost revenue due to this particular break down. Calculate the lost revenue by multiplying this number with repair time and revenue from 1 copy ($0.1). Repeat this process until sum of all the break down time exceeds 52 weeks and calculate the total loos. The excel output under two different assumptions are given below.
1. Let X be the demand for the toy. Then X follows normal distribution with mean μ = 20000 and standard deviation σ. Then
The probability is one of the sampling techniques of choosing the equivalent elements. These are specified as random sampling. The sampling is helped to develop the sampling frame; it selects the elements as randomly.
17. Suppose that an electronic device has a life length X (in units of 100 hours) which is considered as a continuous
3) Sketch the distribution of magnetic flux density at t = 0.0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.20 and 0.25
20. Investors will be indifferent between two investments if both investments have the same expected return.
3. A company is considering to select a project out of the two mutually exclusive projects. The Company’s cost of capital is 10% and the net after tax cash flow of ht project are as follows.: