MAT 540 MIDTERM EXAM Essay

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MAT 540 MIDTERM EXAM

1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.

2. A continuous random variable may assume only integer values within a given interval.

3. A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.

4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.

5. A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.

6. Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.

7. The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.

8. Qualitative methods are
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27. The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.

28. A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

29. An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?

30. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?

31. Consider the following distribution and random numbers: If a simulation begins with the first random number, what would the first simulation value would be __________.

32. Given the

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