Introduction
North Korea (nK), bordering the Republic of Korea (ROK), also known as South Korea to the south and China to the north , maintains a standing army of over million soldiers , a large special operations force , and a sizable missile force . At the strategic level, maintaining situational awareness of North Korea’s activities is paramount to countering an all-out attack on South Korea. Consider the following scenario in which nK would gear up for an attack on South Korea. In this scenario, after a successful long range missile test, nK leadership has stepped up its anti US/ROK alliance rhetoric. The nK economy is bottoming out, the World Food Aid program lessens its aid to nK, and South Korea leadership is not willing to feed
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Further analysis of the PIRs and indicators will show the best method to avoid surprise by nK is SIGINT, MASINT, and IMINT.
Collection Matrix
This collection matrix shows the three Priority Intelligence Requirements (PIR) as well as indicators and the intelligence collection disciplines used to collect information. Three possible PIRs from a strategic perspective are:
1) How will nK Special Operations Forces infiltrate into the ROK?
2) What avenue of approach will nK forces use to seize Seoul?
3) How will nK employ chemical weapons?
Infiltration of North Korean (nK) Special Forces will inhibit reinforcements as they could target lines of communication in rear areas which will likely disrupt northward movement. Seizing Seoul is likely the first objective for any North Korean advance as Seoul houses the government of the ROK as well as a large portion of the population. nK has an active WMD program to include chemical weapons. nK chemical arsenal could likely make up for shortfalls in conventional force training, equipment, and supplies. These intelligence requirements, if answered, will give decision points on how to counter the nK Threat. The collection matrix below shows the relationship between PIRs, indicators, and intelligence collection disciplines. PIR 1 deals with nK Special Operations Forces (SOF). Determining how SOF will enter the ROK will allow commanders to use their
The northern border is known as the DMZ (demilitarized zone) it is the most heavily armed border in the world. At 2.5 miles wide and 150-miles long the heavily mined and guarded area has served as a buffer zone since the cease fire in 1953.(3) The united States helps to guard the DMZ and protect the ROK with approximately 30,000 troops and an arsenal of military equipment. The country of South Korea is unable to maintain their own Nuclear weapons and relies on the US Militaries nuclear weapons program to match North Koreas Nuclear weapons program. Although the ROK army is well equipped and well trained it lacks the sheer numbers and nuclear capabilities to match North Korea. Therefore the ROK relies heavily on the United States military assistance. However with the ROK’s consistent progression and strong economy it’s only a matter of time before the ROK will no longer need the help of the USA. (4)
North Korea, formally known as the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (DPRK), is a relic of the Cold War and the world’s last remaining totalitarian Stalinist dictatorship. Arguably the most secretive state in the world, North Korea poses a unique set of challenges to the world, especially to its democratic and capitalist neighbor, South Korea, formally known as the Republic of Korea (ROK). As one of the last remnants of the Cold War era, North Korea remains an anomaly of the international system due to its unpredictable nature and disregard for international norms. With the recent bombardment of the South Korean Island of Yeongpyong and the sinking of the warship Cheonan, tensions between the two Koreas are at the lowest point since
North Korea is a Totalitarian country that often uses many different fear tactics to control their citizens. “ Her brother who was arrested in China in 1994 for attempting to “defect” from the DPRK... As an example to others against committing similar “anti-state” offenses, he was tied to the back of a truck which took him to their hometown, Musan.”(North Korean control #3 doc A) Someone's brother was arrested in China for trying to defect from North Korea, and as an example, he was dragged around by a truck to show people not to try and escape. This shows that North Korea wanted to impose fear on their citizens, so they wouldn’t try to leave. “The woman she knew was lined up alongside eight other prisoners... her crime was having watched South
One of the security challenges facing the United States (US) is the US and North Korea relations. The US policy toward North Korea is diplomatic yet firm. North Korea is our longest standing adversary. Policy toward North Korea is one of the most enduring foreign policy challenges. In this essay I will discuss the security challenge of U.S. and North Korea, the theory of international relation, realism, how it illuminates this challenge and how the instruments of
Since the 1950’s North Korea has posed as dangerous threat to The United States and its allies. With North Korea development of Nuclear arms and its consistent hostile rhetoric and actions towards the United States. With the North Korea’s development of a long range ICBM, more now than ever the United States has been put into a position where its and many of its
The United States military is, arguably, the most powerful military in the world, and its success on the battlefield in recent years against insurgent forces has caused many Soldiers to think solely about offensive operations. While many may say that defensive operations cannot achieve a decisive victory in war and are conducted by much weaker nations than the United States of America, this type of thinking is dangerous as rogue nations like North Korea continue to develop and pose a genuine threat. A conflict with North Korea would most certainly require us to conduct defensive operations just as COL Paul Freeman's 23rd Regimental Combat Team (RCT) expertly demonstrated during the Korean War in the battle at Chipyong-ni.
Focus was shifted back to the “traditional geographic area of interests.” Around the same time period, United States and Soviet troops withdrew from both Koreas. The Soviet Union left a well-trained North Korean Army, along with aircraft and armor. Conversely, the Republic of Korea’s (South Korea) army was left with little training and light weapons from the United States. Yet, the United States did not completely abandon South Korea. They established a secret intelligence office in the capital that was responsible for collecting information on North Korea and their army. The reports provided by the Korean Liaison Office were used to help develop the CIA’s analytic reports. The analytic reports claimed that North Korea was a puppet to the Soviet regime and that the Soviet Union was the “controlling hand behind all North Korean political and military planning.” The reports established a theme that North Korea was controlled by the Soviet Union and would not attack without their assistance, essentially following the Soviet Union’s military precept of centralized control and centralized execution. With agreement from both China and the Soviet Union, North Korean started building up troops and equipment near the 38th parallel. Yet, the United States discounted the information due to the preconceived notion that North Korea was incapable of
US Military Intelligence has developed Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB) in order to analyze intelligence and utilize multiple intelligence assets i.e. (human intelligence, signal intelligence, open source intelligence,
The Korean peninsula has been a volatile area since the end of World War II. Today it is the last example of a single nation divided between two states, represents the longest division of ideologies, and is the archetype of enduring Cold War symptoms. Although small in size, The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been the biggest obstacle to regional stability in Asia, its militant and hostile policies posing a threat not only to western aligned nations, but also to its former and present benefactors, Russia and China. This dangerous country represents a very important target for the United States’ Intelligence Community, an extremely difficult one to exploit, but one that cannot be ignored as North Korea’s ambitions
The productions of NIE’s are accurate to a degree, but they do not come without any challenges. Some of the biggest challenges that must be overcome in the creation of a useful strategic intelligence assessment include Urgent requests vs. lengthy process and interagency collaboration. As a result of pressure and intensive demands, NIE reports are rushed to be completed in a matter of months or even more than a year. Producing NIE’s at such a rapid rate can result in inaccurate assessment as such was the case for the 2002 NIE on Iraq WMD. It is the responsibility of the NIC to balance the urgency of an NIE request and the amount of time it will take to create an effective estimate. Another major issue that the NIC must be aware of is the interagency collaboration. Any NIE that is produced must the input of the NIC members in it. According to (belfercenter.edu), The interagency collaboration can result in these three things, Gridlock, compromise, and Groupthink. A gridlock refers to when the different interest of members of the NIC results in the slowing down of the analytical process. Compromise result when the estimates only contain “ lowest c’mon denominator” language (Belfercenter.edu). Groupthink is when only one view reigns supreme and opposing views are rejected.
North Koreas intelligence community is in a vibrant atmosphere. Its variations in the configuration and organization change as power shifts within the Communist Party of the People Democratic Republic of Korea (DPRK). Currently the majorities of DPRK intelligence agencies are with the Cabinet General Intelligence Bureau (CGIB) of the Korean Worker’s Party Central Committee and work directly for the president of the country. The CGIB is mainly liable for organizing and executing the intelligence directives among different departments actively involved in intelligence collection operations. The
Intelligence analysis?is the process of taking known information about situations and bodies of strategic, operational, or tactical importance, characterizing the known, and, with appropriate statements of probability, the future actions in those situations and by those entities (Richards, 2010).?The descriptions are drawn from what may only be available in the form of deliberately deceptive information; the?analyst?must correlate the similarities among deceptions and extract a common truth. Although its practice is found in its purest form inside national?intelligence agencies, its methods are also applicable in fields such as business intelligence?or?competitive intelligence.
Our Liaison department; who is responsible for conducting intelligence operations in South Korea; as well as Japan, will head up our HUMINT operations during the course of the exercise. [3] They will also work closely with the first, second and third bureaux of the Reconnaissance Bureau; who also have been able to provide agents to infiltrate South Korean undetected through the vast and superior structure of underground tunnels our great nation has built over the years. [4] We will use our agents already located within the South to provide constant and up to date information as per their observations during the duration of the
ISR collection management processes result in too much data collected that is not analyzed. As well, the typical analyst conducting ISR processing has little to no understanding of the context of the information being observed and, therefore, cannot add value. A shift in the collection paradigm would put more emphasis on demand-side intelligence production. The activity-based intelligence model, used by the NIC, is an effective way of matching intelligence gaps to collection requirements. The most effective use of intelligence and collection is the model employed by the ASIC in 2007 in the Argendab. The NIC participated in such activities in the area of Heet (Heat), in the Eurphasis River Valley Iraq in April of 2015. The employment of a maneuver to collect model creates spectacular results. In both cases, the integration of maneuver elements with collection assets, cued by the analyst to determine enemy locations and TTPs has disproportionate effects. These intelligence-directed activities are the real future of warfare. In many ways, this is what SOF already does and how SOF created disproportionate effects in Afghanistan in
Moreover, DPRK’s foreign policy since the 1970s focused on forceful unification of Korean Peninsula and spreading communist revolution in the South. It has to be remembered that an official doctrine till the end of the 1970s ideologically and practically postulated communization of the south on the basis of military intervention . Since that time North Korea placed its spies in the East Asia and started sheltering revolutionists and terrorists from all over the world, among others nine members of radical left-wing group called the Japanese Fraction of the Red Army who skyjacked a Japanese airplane to Pyongyang in March 1970 . Furthermore, North Korea has been for many years developing its nuclear program and numerously threatening to use it what obviously attracts attention of the whole world .