The Psychological study of decision making began after theories were introduced in order to understand an individual’s thought process when faced with decisions. The aim of these theories were to examine whether or not humans are rational decision makers by introducing probabilities and the evaluation of risk. This essay will evaluate The Expected Utility Theory, The Prospect Theory and other potential influences to decision making. As well as state both the strengths and weaknesses of them, in order to determine how they have contributed to the understanding of human thought and decision making.
The Expected Utility Theory has been the framework for evaluating an individual’s decision making in cases of risk and uncertainty for the last 50 years (Barbera, Hammond & Seidl, 2004). It states that individuals choose between risky prospects by comparing their expected utility values. This is done by adding the expected utility value of their potential outcome and multiplying it by the probability (Davis, Hands, and Maki, 1998). This theory has widely been accepted as the model of choice, thus indicating that most rational people would not wish to violate the axioms of this theory, and it is also shown that not a lot of people do. This in turn influences the fact that humans are rational decision makers.
In relation to this, a paradox was introduced in 1961 by Ellsberg, he suggested that the following experiment tests the Expected Utility Theory. A subject is asked to rank
The decision making process includes cognitive processes that eventually lead to a choice in action while taking into consideration the alternative possibilities (Allen, Dorozenko, & Roberts, 2016). Not all choices have to lead to an action. The values and preferences of the person making the choice also comes into play when making the final decision. Problem-solving to obtain a certain goal or satisfactory by a solution is the main reason people go through the decision making process (Stefaniak, & Tracey, 2014). This process has many factors that end with one final result or solution. The decisions made can be rational or irrational and can be determined by explicit or tacit knowledge (Qingyao, Dongyu, & Weihua, 2016). Since the decision making process can be very difficult at time, psychologists have viewed the process in different perspectives to get a better understanding (Rossi, Picchi, Di Stefano, Marongiu, & Scarsini, 2015). The different perspectives include; psychological, cognitive, and normative or communicative rationality.
For the most part, our decision-making processes are either sub-conscious or made fairly quickly due to the nature of the decision before us. Most of us don't spend much time deciding what to have for lunch, what to wear, or what to watch on television. For other, more complex decisions, we need to spend more time and analyze the elements of the decision and potential consequences. To assist with this, many people employ the use of a decision-making model. Utilizing a
Kahneman’s article is an analysis of intuitive thinking and how it guides our decision-making. Although primarily aimed at the field of psychology, it is an interdisciplinary article with applications in economic theorising. Kahneman attempts to differentiate between two systems of thought, one of intuition (system 1) and one of reasoning (system 2), and argues that many judgements and choices are made intuitively, rather than with reason (a slower and more deliberate process). Intuitive decision making, which encompasses heuristics, although generally more efficient and rapid, makes the agent potentially subject to errors due to framing effects or violations of dominance. The analysis of the studies and theoretical situations also provides criticism of the commonly held model of the rational agent within economics. The article also further conceptualises Kahneman’s theory, the Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979), which has descriptive applications of people’s choice in decision-making situations involving risk and known probability of outcomes. These situations are typically unexplained by the more normative rational agent model.
Daniel Bernoulli offered a decisive clarification of the said behaviour of rational individual. According to him, a rational individual will take decisions under risky and uncertain situations on the basis of expected utility rather than expected monetary
This paper will cover two criminological theories and they will be applied to two types of criminality. The two theories chosen for the paper were developmental theory and rational choice theory. The two types of crimes that were chosen were organized crime, specifically focusing on gangs, and terrorism. Then the crimes will be compared and contrasted. Finally, the developmental theory will be applied to organized crime to explain why and how it happens. The rational choice theory will be applied to terrorism to explain what compels individuals to attempt this form of criminality.
There are many of factors influencing your decision making process either in a positive or a negative way. In addition to what is already determined by your genes, according to various sources the following biological and psychological factors play an important role.
In today’s economy, decision-making skills vary for each household; however, the bottom-line goal for every individual is to get the most for their money. In order to do this, there are 4 principles of individual decision-making: facing trade-offs, evaluating what one is giving up to obtain their goal, thinking at the margin, and responding to incentives.
Economists have often modelled human decision makers as completely rational. According to this model, rational people know their own preferences, gather and accurately process all relevant information, and then make rational choices that advance their own interests. However, Herbert Simon won a Nobel Prize in economics by pointing out that people are rational, but only boundedly so in that they seldom gather all available information, they often do not accurately process the information
He thought, “why I loved one girl but not another, why my daily routine was comfortable for the physicians but not for me” (xiii). These irrational thoughts running through his mind led to a greater understanding of the economics behind making predictable choices/decisions. Furthermore, Ariely wrote this book in order to prove the idea that the “rational” choices we make on an everyday basis are actually “predictably irrational”. The discipline that allows Ariely to challenge the way we think is called “behavioral economics.” According to Ariely the latter, “draws on aspects of both psychology and economics” (xviii). Ariely accumulated a fascination for behavioral economics. He said, “I became engrossed with the idea that we repeatedly and predictably make the wrong decisions in many aspects of our lives and that research could help change some of these patterns” Through this quote, we begin to review Ariely’s economic journey through various psychological experiments that tested the decision-making process of many young
The topic I have chosen to write this research paper over is the rational choice theory. The rational choice theory started with the work of Cesare Beccaria in the late eighteenth century. From that point forward, the theory has been developed and opened up to incorporate different viewpoints, like discouragement and routine activity theory. The rational choice theory is a monetary rule that expresses that people dependably settle on reasonable and legitimate choices. These choices furnish individuals with the best advantage or fulfillment, given the decisions accessible and are likewise in their most elevated self-interest.
Prospect theory is an important alternative descriptive theory for decision-making under unreliable situation (Kahneman and Tversky 1979), which includes real life selection and psychological analysis between choices that involve risk. Prospect theory, which efforts to explain individual make decisions between risky replacements based on the value of potential gains and losses (Wakker 2010), advanced from expected utility theory, which explains that investors want to maximize expected utility of wealth when unclearly situations (Blavatskyy 2007). According to Kahneman and Tversky (1992), more recent researches perceived nonlinear preferences in choices that do not involve definite events in prospective theory. The concept of framing effect refers description invariances (Kahneman and Tversky 1992). To be specific, individual always makes the same decision in identical choice conditions. Also, decision makers have tendency to
The importance of decision making in individual daily life and in organization level was demonstrated by two scientists, Arkes and Hammond (1992), in ‘Judgment and Decision making’ indentified the four types of information which decision maker requires constructing a decision tree.
Many methods have been developed to simplify the decision making process. In this paper, the rational model of decision making will be discussed first. Then, some of the factors that cause deviation in the rational
Applying the utility theory seems a rational choice as it can reflect the decision maker’s attitude toward risk. Still problems arise when the decision is made by more than one person. Based on their experiences within General Motors, Michael W. Kusnic and Daniel Owen have found that when there were more than one decision makers, it was less
Classical decision making theory based on the orientation of the decision makers, such as, economics or market conditions values. A “rational choice” is one which is based on relatively fixed preferences and follows a logic of consequence, by which current actions are dictated by anticipation of the value associated with future outcomes (March, 1994). After finding and gathering info and fact, decision makers are assumed to choose among alternatives by some values (minimizing bad consequence and regret, maximazing profits). However,