1 demand of cotton(intones) by Westham textile S.C are shown below 1 2 3 4 7 8 year Actual 10 11 13 15 14 16 18 20 demand a) 9? What is the nave forecast value of cotton for year b) Compare a 5 year moving average to forecast demand for year 9? c) Using a weight of 50% for the most recent data, 30% of the next, and 20% of the oldest, forecast 3 years moving average demand of cotton in year 9? d) Forecast the demand of cotton for year 9 using exponential smoothing(a=0.2), if the actual demand in year 8 is 22.
Q: The Pro Apparel company manufactures baseball-stylecaps with various team logos. The caps come in an…
A: Forecasting is a tool to recognize problems and opportunities in the business and turning it into…
Q: Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of…
A: Given - Week Forcast Actual Demand 1 0.95 0.72 2 1.08 1.00 3 0.95 1.07 4 1.22 0.97
Q: I Using a numerical example, demonstrate to Mr. Ferdinand how he can use a three- week and a…
A: Forecasting the future demand/sales can be done by various methods like moving average, weighted…
Q: Explain how flexibility in productions system relates to the forecast horizon and forecast accuracy?
A: Investigate how flexibility can be used in a manufacturing system to understand the concept of a…
Q: three-period moving average. A weighted average using weights of .50 (most recent), .20 and .30.…
A: forecasting is a method which helps to predict the unknown future based on the known past…
Q: Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of…
A: Formula to solve this problem: - MAD=Sum of errornMSE = Sum of Squared errorn
Q: 12. Under the bottom-up approach, a central person or persons take the responsibility for…
A: The method of predicting future outcomes based on past and present data by analyzing the trends is…
Q: New Accounts Period New Accounts Period 200 6 232 11 214 248 12 3 211 250 13 4 228 253 14 235 10 267…
A: Given data is
Q: Given current demand in this period of 103, a forecast for this current period of 99, and an alpha…
A: Exponential smoothing is a forecasting model which helps to identify the forecasting value based on…
Q: nformation, What will be - forecast of June, using month weighted moving erage with the following…
A: Given Information:
Q: Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third…
A: Given data is
Q: Week Cheeseburger Sales 1 354 2 344 3 368 4 317 5 361 Based on historical observations…
A:
Q: ind Naïve Forecast, Moving Average and Weighted Average based on the data given at the below table.…
A: In the question, we have monthly data for the year 2018, I would apply forecasting techniques to get…
Q: John's House of Pancakes uses a weighted moving average method to forecast pancake sales. It…
A: Weighted moving average:In weighted moving average equal weights are assigned to all periods in the…
Q: a) The forecast for weeks 2 through 10 using exponential smoothing with a = 0.55 and a week 1…
A: Exponential smoothing formula : Ft = At-1*α + (1- α)*Ft-1 Error = Actual value - Forecasted value…
Q: Find four years weighted moving average? Forecast for 2019 with weights 1,4,2, ….. , Also find…
A: Given data is
Q: Given the following demand data, Period Demand 1 44 2 42 3 44 4 42 5 47 a. Compute a weighted…
A: Given data is
Q: Q1 Given the Supply chain cost for a service is PKR 195 and the customer value is PKR 225. Determine…
A: Supply Chain Surplus= Revenue generated from customer - Total cost incurred to produce and deliver…
Q: A large Portland manufacturing would like to forecast the monthly demand for a piece of…
A: Given that: Month Actual Demand 1 14 2 17 3 20 4 21 5 25
Q: ii. The last seven weeks of sales at KC car dealership can be seen in Table 2 below. Table 2 Week…
A: Week Sales 1 25 2 30 3 27 4 31 5 27 6 29 7 30 8
Q: (4) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to 0.15, assuming a March forecast of…
A: Given data-
Q: Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third…
A: 3 -period moving average forecast = At-1+At-2+At-33 Where, At-1= Actual data of previous period t…
Q: Using seasonal relatives. Apple’s Citrus Fruit Farm ships boxed fruit anywhere in the world.…
A:
Q: Storrs Cycles has just started selling the new Cyclone mountain bike, with monthly sales as shown in…
A: Since you have posted a question with multiple sub-parts, we will solve the first three subparts for…
Q: 1. The Southern Pizza Parlor is a small restaurant. One of the customers' favorites is Southern…
A: Forecasting helps to know the sales of the product in advance so that appropriate stock levels are…
Q: Using exponential smoothing with a weight of 0.6 on actual values: (a) If sales are $45,000 and…
A: Serial No Years Actual sales(At) Forecast sales(Ft) F1 2017 45000 - F2 2018 50000 45000 F3…
Q: Dave's Bar-B-Q operated a moble kitchen that serviced construction sites, office buildings, and…
A: From the given data, Let F3 = forecast value for third week of june Y2= 6 F2=4.7…
Q: g Calcuiate fore cost sales for June using each of the fo llowing method: - i) Naive Method 1) 3…
A: Forecasting is the process of predicting future data based on previous or past data and information.…
Q: 4. What is the difference between trend and seasonality in time series data? 5. Here are the errors…
A: Note: - Since the exact question that has to be answered is not specified, we will answer only the…
Q: Q3 The following table contains the sale of water pumps for the last 10 months in a retail outlet.…
A: Formula:
Q: Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickman's electronicsstore in Washington, D.C., over the past 10…
A: Given data is
Q: Can you either overestimate or underestimate the actual sales number for a poor forecast?
A: A forecast is a foresight of whatever will occur. While usually practiced in the circumstances of…
Q: QUESTIONS All Ans to 3 Decimal Places Use the Naiive method to forecast for Feb -Aug 2021 2…
A: As per our guidelines, we are supposed to answer only three sub-parts if multiples sub-parts are…
Q: a) Calculate the three-period moving-average forecast for periods 7 through 10. Three-period Period…
A: Given data is
Q: 6. Consider the following data table. (12 Points) a) Forecast demand using exponential smoothing…
A: Error = Real demand - Forecast Absolute Error = Positive value of Error Error Square = square of…
Q: How would you conduct a trend analysis? Provide an example.
A: “Since you have asked multiple questions, we will solve the first question for you. If you want any…
Q: The Handy-Dandy Department Store had forecast sales of $110,000 for the previous week. The actual…
A: At=αDt+ 1-αAt-1=0.1130,000+1-0.1110,000=13,000+99,000=112,000 Hence, the forecast for the week is…
Q: What is Use a naive method to make a forecast?
A: Naïve method of forecasting is a simple forecasting method where the sales or demand of the previous…
Q: Jim's department at a local department store has tracked the sales of a product over the last five…
A: This question is related to the topic - Forecasting approach and this topic fall under The…
Q: While monitoring the forecast values in last 5 months, the tracking signals are consistently coming…
A: The tracking signal is given the ratio of accumulated forecast error to average error, with 0 being…
Q: 9. For a specific model of a shoe brand, Carrefour (NIZWA) experienced a sales of 1000 units, 1100…
A: Formulas used: Weighted moving average = ∑widi where w is the weight. d is the actual demand/sales i…
Q: Th e manager of a small health clinic would like to useexponential smoothing to forecast demand for…
A: In exponential smoothing; Here,
Q: Q2: Daily high temperature in St. Louis for the last week were as follows: 93, 94, 93, 95, 96, 88,…
A: Formula:
Q: If actual recent demand was 41.5, using the focus forecasting approach, the forecast technique to…
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: Passenger miles flown on Northeast Airlines, a commuterfirm serving the Boston hub, a re shown for…
A: Given data is
Q: 1 The demand for automobiles at Crescent Auto Dealers for the past 8 weeks is as follows.…
A: Find the Given details below: Given details: Week Auto Demand Weights 1 9 0.1 2 11 0.3 3…
Step by step
Solved in 3 steps
- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?
- A Use a simple moving average model. Experiment with the models using five weeks and three weeks past data. 3 week MA Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA TOTAL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 5 week MA Week ATL BOS CHI DAL LA TOTAL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 B evaluate the forecast that would have been made over the 13 weeks using overall mean absolutely deviation, mean absolute percent error, and tracking signal as criteria.a. Use a 3-month moving average to estimate the month-in-advance forecast of demand for months 4–12 and generate a forecast for the first month of next year. Calculate the average forecast error and mean absolute error. b. Use a 3-month weighted moving average with weights of 0.6, 0.3, 0.1 (most recent to least recent, respectively) to calculate month-in-advance forecasts for months 4–12 and forecast for the first month of next year. Calculate the average forecast error and mean absolute error. c. Compare the average forecast error and MAD for the forecasting methods in parts a and b. Based on these error calculations, which of the two forecast methods would you recommend? Why?Local city government statistics show the rate of new driver’s license applications to be as follows: Month week Applications Weekly Forecast May 1 338 2 299 3 315 4 312 June 1 307 2 310 3 305 4 Using weights 1/2, 1/3, and 1/6 (with maximum weight given to most recent past), make a weighted moving average forecasts through week 4 of June.