Problems:1. A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing toforecast equipment usage at its main plant.Augustusage was forecasted to be 90 percent ofcapacity; actual usage was 87.6 percent ofсарacity. Asmoothing constant of .1 is used.a. Prepare a forecast for September.b. Assuming actual September usage of 92percent, prepare a forecast for October usage.2. An electrical contractor's records during thelast five weeks indicate the number of jobrequests:Week:34303228Requests:3231Predict the number of requests for week 6 usingeach of these methods:a. Naive.b. A four-period moving average. b. A four-period moving average.c. Exponential smoothing with .50. Use 20 for theweek 2 forecast.3. Forecasts based on averages. Given thefollowing data:PeriodNumber ofComplaints17027536546874Prepare a forecast for period 6 using each ofthese approaches:a. A weighted average using weights of .50 (mostrecent), .30, and .20.b. Exponential smoothing with a smoothingconstant of .40.

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1. A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant. August usage was forecasted to be 90 percent of capacity; actual usage was 87.6 percent of сарacity. A smoothing constant of .1 is used. a. Prepare a forecast for September. b. Assuming actual September usage of 92 percent, prepare a forecast for October usage.

1. A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant. August usage was forecasted to be 90 percent of capacity; actual usage was 87.6 percent of сарacity. A smoothing constant of .1 is used. a. Prepare a forecast for September. b. Assuming actual September usage of 92 percent, prepare a forecast for October usage.

Purchasing and Supply Chain Management

6th Edition

ISBN:9781285869681

Author:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson

Publisher:Robert M. Monczka, Robert B. Handfield, Larry C. Giunipero, James L. Patterson

ChapterC: Cases

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 5.3SD: Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling...

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Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?
Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?
QUESTION 1The table below shows the sales figures for a brand of shoe over the last 12 months.Months SalesJanuary 69February 75March 86April 92May 95June 100July 108August 115September 125October 131November 140December 150a. Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:-i. A simple three month moving average. ii. A three period weighted moving average using weights of 1, 2 and 3. Assign thehighest weight to the most recent data. iii. Exponential Smoothing when α= .6 and the forecast for March is 350.iv. Determine which of the three forecasting technique is the most accurate usingMAD. b. The following table shows the number of televisions sold over the last ten years at alocal electronic store.YEAR TV SALES1 1502 3003 4804 6005 6306 6407 7008 8259 90010 980i. Using trend projection, develop a formula to predict sales for years 11 and 12. Youhave to show all working. You will need to develop a table to calculate the slope andthe intercept.…
1. The FedEx Company supports its global network, the company has 51 customer service call centers, whose service goal is to answer 90% of calls within 20 seconds. With million daily calls, FedEx makes extensive use of forecasting models for the number of calls, average handling time, and staffing decisions and to ensure the highest customer satisfaction. Question: Being an Operational Manager, guide with reasons for the company to use appropriate forecasting models.
QUESTION 1 The table below shows the sales figures for a brand of shoe over the last 12 months. Months SalesJanuary 69February 75March 86April 92May 95June 100July 108August 115September 125October 131November 140December 150 a. Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:-i. A simple three month moving average. ii. A three period weighted moving average using weights of 1, 2 and 3. Assign thehighest weight to the most recent data. iii. Exponential Smoothing when α= .6 and the forecast for March is 350.iv. Determine which of the three forecasting technique is the most accurate using MAD
Indicate how and why each of these factors is important to thesuccessful operation of a supermarket:b. Forecasting
QUESTION 1The table below shows the sales figures for a brand of shoe over the last 12 months.Months SalesJanuary 69February 75March 86April 92May 95June 100July 108August 115September 125October 131November 140December 150 a. Using the following, forecast the sales for the months up to January the following year:-i. A simple three month moving average
2. Calculate the exponential smoothing forecast for week eight using a=0.2. Week Sales Forecast 1 39 2 44 3 40 4 45 5 38 6 43 7 39 a. 41.63 b. 39.98 c. 40.54 d. 40.03 Instruction: This is consists of one (1) multiple choice question. The question requires deep analysis. Choose the appropriate response for the question. A detailed working out should accompany the responses.
QUESTION 5 Choose the answer with the best match. Elements of a Good Forecast, Meaningful: The benefits should outweigh the costs It should work consistently The degree of accuracy of the forecast should be stated The forecasting horizon must cover the time necessary to implement possible changes so that its results can be used The units measured should be useful to those using the forecast QUESTION 6 There are two main approaches to forecasting. Choose the best two: Quantitative, Consumer Judgmental, Quantitative Sales force, Judgmental Historical, Consumer Expert, Executive QUESTION 7 Describe the following: Andon Maintaining equipment in good condition Maintaining a workplace that is clean System for moving work to the next station as it is completed System of lights used at each workstation to…
5. (a) When a new business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investment bankers will want to see a business plan that includes forecast information related to a profit and loss statement. What type of forecasting information do you suppose would be required? (b) A picnic spot is open on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. The manager hopes to improve resource availability and scheduling of part-time employees by forecasting visitors in the next week. Data on visitors of the recent 5 weeks at the spot has been found. On Saturday, Thursday, and Friday there were 182. 95, and 280 in week 1; 197, 105, and 295 in week2; 178, 92, and 275 in week 3; 210, 109, and 305 in week 4; and 192, 100. and 284 in week 5. i. Find seasonal relatives of the days. ii. Forecast number of visitors in the resort for week 6 and that is for the days of week 6.