1. George maximizes expected utility and he has a von-Neumann-Morgenstern utility function u (c) = √c. He has an initial wealth of $1,000. He finds an investment opportunity. The project has a startup cost of $1000, and a 9% chance of success. If the project succeeds, the payoff is $100,000; if it fails, its payoff is $0. (a) Would George invest in this project? (b) Suppose George has an initial wealth of $100, 000 instead of $1,000. Would he invest in this project? (c) Comparing your answers in parts (a) and (b), how does George's risk appetite change? Why?
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- Exercise 3: Risky Investment Charlie has von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function u(x) = ln x and has wealth W = 250, 000. She is offered the opportunity to purchase a risky project for price P = 160, 000. 1 1 With probability p = 2 the project will be a success and return V > 160, 000. With probability 1 −p = 2 the project will fail and be worthless (i.e. it returns 0). For simplicity assume there is no interest between the time of the investment and the time of its return, that is r = 0 . How large must V be in order for Charlie to want to purchase the risky project? [Hint: What is Charlie’s expected utility is she does not purchase the project? What is Charlie’s expected utility is she purchases the project?]Market Data Rate of Return Standard Deviation Treasury Bills 4.25% 0.00% S&P 500 12.00% 21.00% Required: Using the information in the table above and the varying risk aversions below, please calculate allocations to the risky and risk-free assets. (Use cells A5 to C6 from the given information to complete this question.) Risk Aversion Percent Allocated to the Market (S&P 500) Percent Allocated to Treasury Bills 4.00 2.00 1.50Farmer Brown faces a 25% chance of there being a year with prolonged drought, with zero yields and zero profit, and he faces a 75% chance of a normal year, with good yields and $100,000 profit. These probabilities are well-known. Suppose that an insurance company offered a drought insurance policy that pays the farmer $80,000 if a prolonged drought occurs. Assume that the farmer’s utility function is u(c) = ln(c). He has initial wealth of $25,000. a Let Y be the expected amount of money that the insurance company will pay Farmer Brown, in the case that Farmer Brown is insured. Compute Y. b. Let X be the most amount of money X Farmer Brown is willing to pay for the insurance. Set up the equation that defines X. Either carefully explain in words what your equation says or put short captions explaining the different parts of your equation. c Determine X to the nearest dollar. d What is the economic intuition on why X > Y?
- 1. A customer has utility function u(x) = log(x + 1000). The customer’scurrent wealth is $28,000. The customer’s car has a value of $14,700. Theprobability of the car being stolen is 0.016. How much would the customerbe willing to pay for insurance against the car being stolen?Q1. A farmer believes there is a 50-50 chance that the next growing season will be abnormally rainy. His expected utility function has the form Expected utility = 0.5lnYNR + 0.5lnYR Where and represent the farmers income in the state of ‘normal rain’ and ‘rainy’ respectively. Suppose the farmer must choose between two crops that promise the following income prospects Crop YNR YR Wheat $83,000 $10,000 Maize $83,000 $15000 What mix of wheat and maize would provide maximum expected utility to this farmer?PROBLEM (4) A homeowner with expected utility preferences with u(x)= sqare root x owns a house worth $490k. There is a probability p that she will experience a house fire, in which case the damages will cost $240k. A risk-neutral insurance company asks for an insurance premium of $10k in return for covering the damages fully in case of a fire. (a) What should p be so that the homeowner is willing to insure her house? (b) What should p be so that the insurance company is willing to offer insurance?
- 6) For the payoff table below, the decision maker will use P(s1) = .15, P(s2) = .5, and P(s3) = .35. s1 s2 s3 d1 -5000 1000 10,000 d2 -15,000 -2000 40,000 (a) What alternative would be chosen according to expected value? (b) For a lottery having a payoff of 40,000 with probability p and -15,000 with probability (1-p), the decision maker expressed the following indifference probabilities. Payoff Probability 10,000 .85 1000 .60 -2000 .53 -5000 .50 Let U(40,000) = 10 and U(-15,000) = 0 and find the utility value for each payoff. (c) What alternative would be chosen according to expected utility?14. Suppose an investment project has an NPV of $75 million if it becomes successful and an NPV of –$25 million if it is a failure. What is the minimum probability of success above which you should make the investment? Group of answer choicesa. 0.50b. 0.25c. 0.33d. 0.10Utility Theory You live in an area that has a possibility of incurring a massive earthquake, so you are considering buyingearthquake insurance on your home at an annual cost of $180. The probability of an earthquake damagingyour home during one year is 0.001. If this happens, you estimate that the cost of the damage (fully coveredby earthquake insurance) will be $160,000. Your total assets (including your home) are worth $250,000. A. Apply Bayes’ decision rule to determine which alternative (take the insurance or not) maximizes yourexpected assets after one year.
- Assume you are faced with two decision alternatives and two states of nature whose profit payoff table is shown below. Decision Alternative State of Nature 1 State of Nature 2 Decision 1 25 30 Decision 2 45 15 The probability of state of nature 1 is 0.4.(a) Compute the expected value of each alternative.(b) Which decision is the optimal decision?(c) Compute the expected value with perfect information.(d) Compute the expected value of perfect information.4.25 The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.Recommended decision: Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.EVPI: $An investor with capital x can invest any amount between0 and x; if y is invested then y is eitherwon or lost, with respectiveprobabilities p and 1− p. If p > 1/2, how much should be invested byan investor having a exponential utility function u(x) = 1 − e −bx ,b > 0.