1. The following solved problems refer to this payoff table: New Bridge Built No New Bridge 14 Alternative capacity A 1 for new store B 10 4 where A small, B = medium, and C large. Assume the payoffs represent profits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under each of these decision criteria: a. Maximin. b. Маximax. c. Laplace. 2. Using the information in the payoff table, develop a table of regrets, and then a. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under minimax regret. b. Determine the expected value of perfect information using the regret table, assuming that the probability of a new bridge being built is .60. 3. Using the probabilities of .60 for a new bridge and 40 for no new bridge, a. Compute the expected value of each alternative in the payoff table, and identify the alternative that would be selected under the expected-value approach. b. Construct a decision tree for the problem showing expected values.

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Section9.2: Elements Of Decision Analysis
Problem 2P
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1.
The following solved problems refer to this payoff table:
New
No
Bridge
Built
New
Bridge
14
Alternative capacity
1
for new store
B
2
10
4
6
where A = small, B = medium, and C = large.
Assume the payoffs represent profits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under each of
these decision criteria:
a. Maximin.
b. Maximax.
c. Laplace.
2.
Using the information in the payoff table, develop a table of regrets, and then
a. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under minimax regret.
b. Determine the expected value of perfect information using the regret table, assuming that the
probability of a new bridge being built is .60.
3.
Using the probabilities of .60 for a new bridge and .40 for no new bridge,
a. Compute the expected value of each alternative in the payoff table, and identify the alternative
that would be selected under the expected-value approach.
b. Construct a decision tree for the problem showing expected values.
Transcribed Image Text:1. The following solved problems refer to this payoff table: New No Bridge Built New Bridge 14 Alternative capacity 1 for new store B 2 10 4 6 where A = small, B = medium, and C = large. Assume the payoffs represent profits. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under each of these decision criteria: a. Maximin. b. Maximax. c. Laplace. 2. Using the information in the payoff table, develop a table of regrets, and then a. Determine the alternative that would be chosen under minimax regret. b. Determine the expected value of perfect information using the regret table, assuming that the probability of a new bridge being built is .60. 3. Using the probabilities of .60 for a new bridge and .40 for no new bridge, a. Compute the expected value of each alternative in the payoff table, and identify the alternative that would be selected under the expected-value approach. b. Construct a decision tree for the problem showing expected values.
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