6. Ah Seng Coffeeshop needs to decide in November 2021 how many Chinese New Year cups to order to sell at his coffeeshop. Because the cups are specially made for the year 2022 (year of the tiger), those that are unsold by end of February 2022 are considered a loss. These specially designed cups sell for $23.95 and cost $6.75 each. Ah Seng is uncertain of the demand. He believes that there is a 25% chance that they will sell 10,000 cups, a 50% chance that they will sell 15,000 and a 25% chance that they will sell 20,000. a) Construct decision tree and cumulative risk profiles for the problem above using Precision Tree b) Now, assume that any unsold cups are discounted and can be sold for $5 after February 2022. How does this affect the decision?

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
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6. Ah Seng Coffeeshop needs to decide in November 2021 how many Chinese New Year cups to
order to sell at his coffeeshop. Because the cups are specially made for the year 2022 (year of the
tiger), those that are unsold by end of February 2022 are considered a loss. These specially-
designed cups sell for $23.95 and cost $6.75 each. Ah Seng is uncertain of the demand. He believes
that there is a 25% chance that they will sell 10,000 cups, a 50% chance that they will sell 15,000
and a 25% chance that they will sell 20,000.
a) Construct decision tree and cumulative risk profiles for the problem above using Precision Tree
b) Now, assume that any unsold cups are discounted and can be sold for $5 after February 2022.
How does this affect the decision?
Transcribed Image Text:6. Ah Seng Coffeeshop needs to decide in November 2021 how many Chinese New Year cups to order to sell at his coffeeshop. Because the cups are specially made for the year 2022 (year of the tiger), those that are unsold by end of February 2022 are considered a loss. These specially- designed cups sell for $23.95 and cost $6.75 each. Ah Seng is uncertain of the demand. He believes that there is a 25% chance that they will sell 10,000 cups, a 50% chance that they will sell 15,000 and a 25% chance that they will sell 20,000. a) Construct decision tree and cumulative risk profiles for the problem above using Precision Tree b) Now, assume that any unsold cups are discounted and can be sold for $5 after February 2022. How does this affect the decision?
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