A large corporation collected data on the reasons both middle managers and senior managers leave the company. Some managers eventually retire, but others leave the company prior to retirement for personal reasons including more attractive positions with other firms. Assume that the following matrix of one-year transition probabilities applies with the four states of the Markov process being retirement, leaves prior to retirement for personal reasons, stays as a middle manager, stays as a senior manager. Retirement leaves-personal middle manager senior manager retirement 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 leaves-personal 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 middle manager 0.03 0.07 0.80 0.10 senior manager 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.88 a.What states are considered absorbing states? Why? b.Compute the matrix NR: c. What percentage of the current middle managers will eventually retire from the company?

A large corporation collected data on the reasons both middle managers and senior managers leave the company. Some managers eventually retire, but others leave the company prior to retirement for personal reasons including more attractive positions with other firms. Assume that the following matrix of one-year transition probabilities applies with the four states of the Markov process being retirement, leaves prior to retirement for personal reasons, stays as a middle manager, stays as a senior manager. Retirement leaves-personal middle manager senior manager retirement 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 leaves-personal 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 middle manager 0.03 0.07 0.80 0.10 senior manager 0.08 0.01 0.03 0.88 a.What states are considered absorbing states? Why? b.Compute the matrix NR: c. What percentage of the current middle managers will eventually retire from the company?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter11: Simulation Models

Section11.3: Financial Models

Problem 23P: Suppose you currently have a portfolio of three stocks, A, B, and C. You own 500 shares of A, 300 of...

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A European put option allows an investor to sell a share of stock at the exercise price on the exercise data. For example, if the exercise price is 48, and the stock price is 45 on the exercise date, the investor can sell the stock for 48 and then immediately buy it back (that is, cover his position) for 45, making 3 profit. But if the stock price on the exercise date is greater than the exercise price, the option is worthless at that date. So for a put, the investor is hoping that the price of the stock decreases. Using the same parameters as in Example 11.7, find a fair price for a European put option. (Note: As discussed in the text, an actual put option is usually for 100 shares.)
A common decision is whether a company should buy equipment and produce a product in house or outsource production to another company. If sales volume is high enough, then by producing in house, the savings on unit costs will cover the fixed cost of the equipment. Suppose a company must make such a decision for a four-year time horizon, given the following data. Use simulation to estimate the probability that producing in house is better than outsourcing. If the company outsources production, it will have to purchase the product from the manufacturer for 25 per unit. This unit cost will remain constant for the next four years. The company will sell the product for 42 per unit. This price will remain constant for the next four years. If the company produces the product in house, it must buy a 500,000 machine that is depreciated on a straight-line basis over four years, and its cost of production will be 9 per unit. This unit cost will remain constant for the next four years. The demand in year 1 has a worst case of 10,000 units, a most likely case of 14,000 units, and a best case of 16,000 units. The average annual growth in demand for years 2-4 has a worst case of 7%, a most likely case of 15%, and a best case of 20%. Whatever this annual growth is, it will be the same in each of the years. The tax rate is 35%. Cash flows are discounted at 8% per year.
Suppose you currently have a portfolio of three stocks, A, B, and C. You own 500 shares of A, 300 of B, and 1000 of C. The current share prices are 42.76, 81.33, and, 58.22, respectively. You plan to hold this portfolio for at least a year. During the coming year, economists have predicted that the national economy will be awful, stable, or great with probabilities 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3. Given the state of the economy, the returns (one-year percentage changes) of the three stocks are independent and normally distributed. However, the means and standard deviations of these returns depend on the state of the economy, as indicated in the file P11_23.xlsx. a. Use @RISK to simulate the value of the portfolio and the portfolio return in the next year. How likely is it that you will have a negative return? How likely is it that you will have a return of at least 25%? b. Suppose you had a crystal ball where you could predict the state of the economy with certainty. The stock returns would still be uncertain, but you would know whether your means and standard deviations come from row 6, 7, or 8 of the P11_23.xlsx file. If you learn, with certainty, that the economy is going to be great in the next year, run the appropriate simulation to answer the same questions as in part a. Repeat this if you learn that the economy is going to be awful. How do these results compare with those in part a?
You are considering a 10-year investment project. At present, the expected cash flow each year is 10,000. Suppose, however, that each years cash flow is normally distributed with mean equal to last years actual cash flow and standard deviation 1000. For example, suppose that the actual cash flow in year 1 is 12,000. Then year 2 cash flow is normal with mean 12,000 and standard deviation 1000. Also, at the end of year 1, your best guess is that each later years expected cash flow will be 12,000. a. Estimate the mean and standard deviation of the NPV of this project. Assume that cash flows are discounted at a rate of 10% per year. b. Now assume that the project has an abandonment option. At the end of each year you can abandon the project for the value given in the file P11_60.xlsx. For example, suppose that year 1 cash flow is 4000. Then at the end of year 1, you expect cash flow for each remaining year to be 4000. This has an NPV of less than 62,000, so you should abandon the project and collect 62,000 at the end of year 1. Estimate the mean and standard deviation of the project with the abandonment option. How much would you pay for the abandonment option? (Hint: You can abandon a project at most once. So in year 5, for example, you abandon only if the sum of future expected NPVs is less than the year 5 abandonment value and the project has not yet been abandoned. Also, once you abandon the project, the actual cash flows for future years are zero. So in this case the future cash flows after abandonment should be zero in your model.)
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Suppose the equilibrium price for good quality used cars is $20,000. And the equilibrium price for poor quality used cars is $10,000. Assume a potential used car buyer has imperfect information as to the condition of any given used car. Assume this potential buyer believes the probability a given used car is good quality is .60 and the probability a given used car is low quality is .40. Assume the seller has perfect information on all cars in inventory. What policy or mechanism could solve any informational imbalances and restore the market to an efficient allocation of used cars? a. Third-party provided information on the history of the car (ex: maintenance records, accident records, verified millage and verify repairs). b. Legal remedies and laws restricting fraudulent sales of used cars. c. Obtainablepublications discussing quality, price and possible repairs of all cars --used and new. d. All of the above.
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Where a financial institution makes a loan commitment, the borrower, in drawing down on their loan commitment, causes increased cash flow needs by the DI to fund the loan commitments. There are three ways a DI can offset the effect of Asset-side liquidity risk such as drawing down of a loan commitment in all of the following sitiuations Except: a. Reduce excess cash reserves to minimum levels required to meet reserve requirements based on the decision made by management independant of regulatory requirements. b. Reduce balance sheet items such as retain earnings to the meet the minimum required capital levels. c. Taking offsetting measures such as borrowing funds or even purchasing funds on the money market. d. Reducing liquid type assets on their balance sheet such at T-bills by selling them.

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	Retirement	leaves-personal	middle manager	senior manager
retirement	1.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
leaves-personal	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
middle manager	0.03	0.07	0.80	0.10
senior manager	0.08	0.01	0.03	0.88