A manager is trying to decide whether to buy one machine ortwo. If only one machine is purchased and demand provesto be excessive, the second machine can be purchased later.Some sales would be lost, however, because the lead timefor delivery of this type of machine is 6 months. In addition,the cost per machine will be lower if both machines are pur-chased at the same time. The probability of low demand isestimated to be 0.30 and that of high demand to be 0.70. Theafter-tax NPV of the benefits from purchasing two machinestogether is $90,000 if demand is low and $170,000 if demandis high.If one machine is purchased and demand is low, the NPV is$120,000. If demand is high, the manager has three options:(1) doing nothing, which has an NPV of $120,000; (2) subcon-tracting, with an NPV of $140,000; and (3) buying the secondmachine, with an NPV of $130,000.a. Draw a decision tree for this problem.b. What is the best decision and what is its expected payoff?

A manager is trying to decide whether to buy one machine ortwo. If only one machine is purchased and demand provesto be excessive, the second machine can be purchased later.Some sales would be lost, however, because the lead timefor delivery of this type of machine is 6 months. In addition,the cost per machine will be lower if both machines are pur-chased at the same time. The probability of low demand isestimated to be 0.30 and that of high demand to be 0.70. Theafter-tax NPV of the benefits from purchasing two machinestogether is $90,000 if demand is low and $170,000 if demandis high.If one machine is purchased and demand is low, the NPV is$120,000. If demand is high, the manager has three options:(1) doing nothing, which has an NPV of $120,000; (2) subcon-tracting, with an NPV of $140,000; and (3) buying the secondmachine, with an NPV of $130,000.a. Draw a decision tree for this problem.b. What is the best decision and what is its expected payoff?

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Marketing

20th Edition

ISBN:9780357033791

Author:Pride, William M

Publisher:Pride, William M

Chapter19: Pricing Concepts

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 6DRQ

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A manager is trying to decide whether to buy one machineor two. If only one is purchased and demand proves to beexcessive, the second machine can be purchased later. Somesales will be lost, however, because the lead time for produc-ing this type of machine is six months. In addition, the costper machine will be lower if both are purchased at the sametime. The probability of low demand is estimated to be 0.20.The after-tax net present value of the benefits from purchas-ing the two machines together is $90,000 if demand is lowand $180,000 if demand is high.If one machine is purchased and demand is low, the netpresent value is $120,000. If demand is high, the managerhas three options. Doing nothing has a net present value of$120,000; subcontracting, $160,000; and buying the secondmachine, $140,000.a. Draw a decision tree for this problem.b. How many machines should the company buy initially?What is the expected payoff for this alternative?
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