A producer of pocket calculators estimates that the calculators fail at a rate of oneevery five years. The calculators are sold for $25 each with a one-year freereplacement warranty but can be purchased from an unregistered mail-ordersource for $18.50 without the warranty. Is it worth purchasing the calculator withthe warranty? For Problem 37, what length of period of the warranty equates the replacementcosts of the calculator with and without the warranty?

A producer of pocket calculators estimates that the calculators fail at a rate of oneevery five years. The calculators are sold for $25 each with a one-year freereplacement warranty but can be purchased from an unregistered mail-ordersource for $18.50 without the warranty. Is it worth purchasing the calculator withthe warranty? For Problem 37, what length of period of the warranty equates the replacementcosts of the calculator with and without the warranty?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter11: Simulation Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 65P

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A producer of pocket calculators estimates that the calculators fail at a rate of oneevery five years. The calculators are sold for $25 each with a one-year freereplacement warranty but can be purchased from an unregistered mail-ordersource for $18.50 without the warranty. Is it worth purchasing the calculator withthe warranty?
A producer of pocket calculators estimates that the calculators fail at a rate of one every five years. The calculators are sold for $25 each with a one-year free replacement warranty but can be purchased from an unregistered mail-order source for $18.50 without the warranty. What length of period of the warranty equates the replacement costs of the calculator with and without the warranty?
United Electric (UE) sells refrigerators for $400 with a one-year warranty. The warranty works as follows. If any part of the refrigerator fails during the first year after purchase, UE replaces the refrigerator foran average cost of $100. As soon as a replacement is made, another one-year warranty period begins for the customer. If a refrigerator fails outside the warranty period, we assume that the customer immediatelypurchases another UE refrigerator. Suppose that the amount of time a refrigerator lasts follows a normal distribution with a mean of 1.8 years and a standard deviation of 0.3 year.a. Estimate the average profit per year UE earns from a customer.b. How could the approach of this problem be used to determine the optimal warranty period?
Zemansky’s sells tires with a pro rata warranty. The tires are warranted to deliver50,000 miles with the rebate based on the remaining tread on the tire. The tires failon the average after 35,000 miles of wear. Suppose the tires sell for $50 each withthe warranty. If failures occur completely at random, what would be a consistentprice for the tires if no warranty were offered?
Habard’s, a chain of hardware stores, sells a variety of tools and home repair items.One of their best wrenches sells for $5.50. Habard’s will include a three-year freereplacement warranty for an additional $1.50. The wrench is expected to be subject to heavy use and, based on past experience, will fail randomly at a rate of oneevery eight years. Is it worth purchasing the warranty?
Wizard, a popular brand of electric garage door opener, includes two 40-watt bulbs that go onwhen the garage door is opened. A bulb will generally last about one year in normal operation.Three neighbors, James, Smith, and Walker, each has a Wizard opener in their respectivegarages. Each time a bulb burns out, James replaces both bulbs. Smith, on the other hand, replaces only the bulb that has burned out, and Walker replaces both bulbs only after both haveburned out. Assume that light bulbs fail according to an exponential law.b. What percentage of the time will Walker have only one bulb burning?
Wizard, a popular brand of electric garage door opener, includes two 40-watt bulbs that go onwhen the garage door is opened. A bulb will generally last about one year in normal operation.Three neighbors, James, Smith, and Walker, each has a Wizard opener in their respectivegarages. Each time a bulb burns out, James replaces both bulbs. Smith, on the other hand, replaces only the bulb that has burned out, and Walker replaces both bulbs only after both haveburned out. Assume that light bulbs fail according to an exponential law.c. Is there any advantage of James’s strategy over Smith’s?
Wizard, a popular brand of electric garage door opener, includes two 40-watt bulbs that go onwhen the garage door is opened. A bulb will generally last about one year in normal operation.Three neighbors, James, Smith, and Walker, each has a Wizard opener in their respectivegarages. Each time a bulb burns out, James replaces both bulbs. Smith, on the other hand, replaces only the bulb that has burned out, and Walker replaces both bulbs only after both haveburned out. Assume that light bulbs fail according to an exponential law.a. Over a 10-year period, how many bulbs, on average, will each neighbor require?
Payoff Insurance Company charges a customeraccording to his or her accident history. A customer whohas had no accident during the last two years is charged a$100 annual premium. Any customer who has had anaccident during each of the last two years is charged a $400annual premium. A customer who has had an accident duringonly one of the last two years is charged an annual premiumof $300. A customer who has had an accident during the lastyear has a 10% chance of having an accident during thecurrent year. If a customer has not had an accident duringthe last year, there is only a 3% chance that he or she willhave an accident during the current year. During a givenyear, what is the average premium paid by a Payoffcustomer?
In designing a new space vehicle, NASA needs to decide whether to provide 0, 1 or 2 backup systems for a critical component of the vehicle. The first backup system, if included, comes into use only if the original system fails. The second backup system, if included, comes into use only if the original system and the first backup system both fail. NASA engineers claim that each system, independent of the others, has a 1.5% chance of failing if called into use. Each backup system costs $70,000 to produce and install within the vehicle. Once the vehicle is in flight, the mission will be scrubbed (ended early) only if the original system and all backups fail. The cost of a scrubbed mission, in addition to production costs, is assessed to be $5,000,000. How many backup systems are needed to minimize NASA’s expected total cost?
A swim club is designing a new pool to replace its old pool. The new pool would need to last for 10 years since the club is planning on relocating after 10 years. A concrete shell would cost $85,000 and last for all 10 years. Another option is to install a vinyl liner that would cost only $70,000 to install. However, the vinyl is not guaranteed to last for all 10 years, and it has a 40% chance of breaking down. Repair of the vinyl would cost $40,000 and would extend the life of the vinyl liner to the 10-year mark. If both options are acceptable to the swim club, which one minimizes cost? Support your answer with drawing a decision tree and provide your calculation.
A requirement for scientific work is that what we have done can be reproducible, whichmeans that when using the same input and the same models, we should arrive at the sameresults. Will a risk assessment meet this requirement? it is a risk management question.