A manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses her firm's computer operations. According to her assistant there are three options which merit consideration: I, II, and III. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: A, which has a probability of occurrence of .25; B, which has a probability of .6; and C, which has a probability of .15. If condition A materializes, I will cost $12,000, II will cost $20,000, and III will cost $16,000. If condition B materializes, the costs will be $15,000 for I, $18,000 for II, and $14,000 for III. If condition C materializes, the costs will be $10,000 for I, $15,000 for II, and $19,000 for III. (A) Draw a decision tree for this problem. (B) Using expected monetary value, which alternative should be chosen?

A manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses her firm's computer operations. According to her assistant there are three options which merit consideration: I, II, and III. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: A, which has a probability of occurrence of .25; B, which has a probability of .6; and C, which has a probability of .15. If condition A materializes, I will cost $12,000, II will cost $20,000, and III will cost $16,000. If condition B materializes, the costs will be $15,000 for I, $18,000 for II, and $14,000 for III. If condition C materializes, the costs will be $10,000 for I, $15,000 for II, and $19,000 for III. (A) Draw a decision tree for this problem. (B) Using expected monetary value, which alternative should be chosen?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.4: The Precision Tree Add-in

Problem 9P

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

A manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses her firm’s computer operations. According to her assistant there are three options which merit consideration: I, II, and III. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: A, which has a probability of occurrence of .25; B, which has a probability of .6; and C, which has a probability of .15. If condition A materializes, I will cost $12000, II will cost $20000, and III will cost $16000. If condition B materializes, the costs will be $15000 for I, $18000 for II, and $14000 for III. If condition C materializes, the costs will be $10000 for I, $15000 for I, and $19000 for III. (A) Draw a decision tree for this problem. (B) Using expected monetary value, which alternative should be chosen
A manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses her firm's computer operations. According to her assistant there are three options which merit consideration: I, II, and III. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: A, which has a probability of occurrence of .3; B, which has a probability of .5; and C, which has a probability of .2.If condition A materializes, I will cost $12,000, II will cost $20,000, and III will cost $16,000. If condition B materializes, the costs will be $15,000 for I, $18,000 for II, and $14,000 for III. If condition C materializes, the costs will be $10,000 for I, $15,000 for II, and $19,000 for III.(A) Draw a decision tree for this problem.(B) Using expected monetary value, which alternative should be chosen?
A manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses her firm's computer operations. According to her assistant, there are three options which merit consideration: A, B, and C. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: I, which has a probability of occurrence of .5; II, which has a probability of .3; and III, which has a probability of .2.If condition I materializes, A will cost USD 12,000, B will cost USD 20,000, and C will cost USD 16,000. If condition II materializes, the costs will be USD 15,000 for A, USD 18,000 for B, and USD 14,000 for C. If condition III materializes, the costs will be USD 10,000 for A, USD 15,000 for B, and USD 19,000 for C._____ alternative will yield the most profit_____ is the profit for the said alternative
A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium, or large stamping plant. A consultant’sreport indicates a .20 probability that demand will be low and an .80 probability that demand willbe high.If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the net present value will be$42 million. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the net present value of $42 million or expand greatly for a net present value of $48 million.The firm could build a medium-size facility as a hedge: If demand turns out to be low, its netpresent value is estimated at $22 million; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothingand realize a net present value of $46 million, or it could expand and realize a net present value of$50 million.If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the net present value will be – $20 million,whereas high demand will result in a net present value of $72 million.a. Analyze this problem using a decision…
Howard Weiss, Inc., is considering building a sensitive new radiation scanning device. His managers believe that ther is a probability of 0.40 that the ATR Co. does not follow with a competitive product. Weiss's expected profit is $50,000; If weiss adds an assembley line and ATR follows suit, Weiss still expects $15,000 profit. If Weiss adds a new plant addition adn ATR does not produce a competitive product, weiss expects a profit of $600,000; if ATR does compete for this market, weiss expects a loss of $100,000 a) Expected value for the Add Assembly Line option=$____
A manager is quite concerned about the recent deterioration of a section of the roof on a building that houses her firm’s computer operations. According to her assistant there are three options which merit consideration: A, B, and C. Moreover, there are three possible future conditions that must be included in the analysis: I, which has a probability of occurrence of .5; II, which has a probability of .3; and III, which has a probability of .2. If condition I materializes, A will cost $1500, B will cost $2000, and C will cost $1600. If condition II materializes, the costs will be $1500 for A, $1800 for B, and $1900 for C. If condition III materializes, the costs will be $1000 for A, $1600 for B, and $1900 for C. (A) Draw a decision tree for this problem. (B) Using expected monetary value, which alternative should be chosen
A real estate investor has the opportunity to purchase land currently zoned residential. If the county board approves a request to rezone the property as commercial within the next year, the investor will be able to lease the land to a large discount firm that wants to open a new store on the property. However, if the zoning change is not approved, the investor will have to sell the property at a loss. Profits (in thousands of dollars) are shown in the following payoff table: a. If the probability that the rezoning will be approved is 0.5, what decision is recommended? What is the expected profit? b. The investor can purchase an option to buy the land. Under the option, the investor maintains the rights to purchase the land anytime during the next three months while learning more about possible resistance to the rezoning proposal from area residents. Probabilities are as follows: Let H = High resistance to rezoning L = Low resistance to rezoning P(H) = 0.55 P(S1 | H) =…
Jeffrey Mogul is a Hollywood film producer, and he is currently evaluating a script by a new screenwriter and director, Betty Jo Thurston. Jeffrey knows that the probability of a film by a new director being a success is about .10 and that the probability it will flop is .90. The studio accounting department estimates that if this film is a hit, it will make $25 million in profit, whereas if it is a box office failure, it will lose $8 million. Jeffrey would like to hire noted film critic Dick Roper to read the script and assess its chances of success. Roper is generally able to correctly predict a successful film 70% of the time and correctly predict an unsuccessful film 80% of the time. Roper wants a fee of $1 million. Determine whether Roper should be hired, the strategy Mogul should follow if Roper is hired, and the expected value.
A new minor league baseball team is coming to town and the owners have decided to build a new stadium, either small or large. The success of the team with regard to ticket sales will be either high or low with probabilities of 0.75 and 0.25, respectively. If demand for tickets is high, the large stadium would provide a payoff of approximately $20 million. If ticket sales are low, the loss on the large stadium would be $5 million. If a small stadium is constructed, and ticket sales are low, the payoff is $500,000 after deducting the cost of construction. If ticket sales are high, the team can choose to build an upper deck, or to maintain the existing facility. Expanding the stadium in this scenario has a payoff of $10 million, whereas maintaining the same number of seats has a payoff of only $3 million. a. Draw a decision tree for this problem. b. What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff?
Maverick Ltd is considering whether to develop and market a new product. Development the costs are estimated to be R180 000, and there is a 0.75 probability that development effort will be successful and a 0.25 probability that the development effort will be unsuccessful. If the development is successful, the product will be marketed and it is estimated that:a. If the product is very successful profits will be R540 000;b. If the product is moderately successful profits will be R100 000;c. If the product is a failure, there will be a loss of R400 000.Each of the above profit and loss calculations is after taking into account the development costs of R180 000. The estimated probabilities of each of the above events are as follows:d. Very successful 40%e. Moderately successful 30%f. Failure 30%Required3.1. Construct a decision tree to illustrate the scenario above (7)3.2. Calculate the Expected Value (8)
The Hard to Beat Bakery is deciding whether to buy or repair an existing oven thatthey have been using for over 8 years. If they elect to repair, it will cost the entity$950,000 and either of two outcomes is likely: 1. A 20% probability it will perform okay and generate revenues of$10,000,000, or 2. An 80% chance that it will be partially restored and generate revenue of$2,000,000. If on the other hand however, they purchase a new oven, they can either buy animported oven for $3,500,000 or they can buy a locally made one for $2,200,000.If the elect to purchase the imported oven, production will earn them revenues of$15,550,000, but if they buy the locally made oven, there is a 70% likelihood thatit perform as expected and generate revenues of $12,000,000; and a 30% chancethat it will not and generate revenues of $6,000,000. Required: 1. Draw a decision tree of this problem and determine the expected value.2. Advise the management of the Bakery on how to proceed.3. Briefly discuss the…
Peter Martin will help his brother who wants to open a grocery store. Peter initially believes there is a 50-50 chance that his brother's food store will be successful. Peter is considering doing market research. Based on historical data, there is a 0.8 probability that the market research will be favorable given a successful store. Furthermore, there is a 0.7 probability that the market research will be unfavorable given an unsuccessful store. a) If the market research is favorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother?b) If the market survey is unfavorable, what is Peter's revised probability of a successful store for his brother?c) If the initial probability of a successful store is 0.60 (instead of 0.50), find the probabilities of (a) and (b).