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7. Suisan Fish Company must decide whether to build a small or a large warehouse at a new location, Kona. Demand at Kona can be either low or high, with probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If a small warehouse is built, and demand is high, the fish manager may choose to maintain the current size or to expand. The net present value of profits is $220,000 if the company chooses not to expand. However, if the firm chooses to expand, there is a 50% chance that the net present value of the returns will be $330,000 and a 50% chance the estimated net present value of profits will be $220,000. If a small warehouse is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the net present value of the profits is $210,000. However, if a large warehouse is built and the demand turns out to be low, the choice is to do nothing with a net present value of $25,000 or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising can be either modest with a probability of .2 or favorable with a probability of.8. If the response to advertising is modest, the net present value of the profits is $30,000. However, if the response to advertising is favorable, then the net present value of the profits is $230,000. Finally, if the large plant is built and the demand happens to be high, the net present value of the profits $800,000. Using decision tree analysis, determine what the company should do.

7. Suisan Fish Company must decide whether to build a small or a large warehouse at a new location, Kona. Demand at Kona can be either low or high, with probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If a small warehouse is built, and demand is high, the fish manager may choose to maintain the current size or to expand. The net present value of profits is $220,000 if the company chooses not to expand. However, if the firm chooses to expand, there is a 50% chance that the net present value of the returns will be $330,000 and a 50% chance the estimated net present value of profits will be $220,000. If a small warehouse is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the net present value of the profits is $210,000. However, if a large warehouse is built and the demand turns out to be low, the choice is to do nothing with a net present value of $25,000 or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising can be either modest with a probability of .2 or favorable with a probability of.8. If the response to advertising is modest, the net present value of the profits is $30,000. However, if the response to advertising is favorable, then the net present value of the profits is $230,000. Finally, if the large plant is built and the demand happens to be high, the net present value of the profits $800,000. Using decision tree analysis, determine what the company should do.

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter5: Network Models
Section5.3: Assignment Models
Problem 10P
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7. Suisan Fish Company must decide whether to build a small or a large warehouse at a new location, Kona. Demand at Kona can be either low or high, with probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If a small warehouse is built, and demand is high, the fish manager may choose to maintain the current size or to expand. The net present value of profits is $220,000 if the company chooses not to expand. However, if the firm chooses to expand, there is a 50% chance that the net present value of the returns will be $330,000 and a 50% chance the estimated net present value of profits will be $220,000. If a small warehouse is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the net present value of the profits is $210,000. However, if a large warehouse is built and the demand turns out to be low, the choice is to do nothing with a net present value of $25,000 or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising can be either modest with a probability of .2 or favorable with a probability of.8. If the response to advertising is modest, the net present value of the profits is $30,000. However, if the response to advertising is favorable, then the net present value of the profits is $230,000. Finally, if the large plant is built and the demand happens to be high, the net present value of the profits $800,000. Using decision tree analysis, determine what the company should do.
Transcribed Image Text:7. Suisan Fish Company must decide whether to build a small or a large warehouse at a new location, Kona. Demand at Kona can be either low or high, with probabilities estimated to be 0.4 and 0.6, respectively. If a small warehouse is built, and demand is high, the fish manager may choose to maintain the current size or to expand. The net present value of profits is $220,000 if the company chooses not to expand. However, if the firm chooses to expand, there is a 50% chance that the net present value of the returns will be $330,000 and a 50% chance the estimated net present value of profits will be $220,000. If a small warehouse is built and demand is low, there is no reason to expand and the net present value of the profits is $210,000. However, if a large warehouse is built and the demand turns out to be low, the choice is to do nothing with a net present value of $25,000 or to stimulate demand through local advertising. The response to advertising can be either modest with a probability of .2 or favorable with a probability of.8. If the response to advertising is modest, the net present value of the profits is $30,000. However, if the response to advertising is favorable, then the net present value of the profits is $230,000. Finally, if the large plant is built and the demand happens to be high, the net present value of the profits $800,000. Using decision tree analysis, determine what the company should do.
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