Consider a sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. You define A as {1, 4, 6}, B as {1, 2, 4, 5}, C as {2,4,6}, and D as {3, 6}. a. Find the event "A and B" and calculate its probability. b. Find the event "A or B" and calculate its probability. Find An C and P(An C). d. Find A U D and P(AUD). Find AC and P(AC). C. e.
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- The promoter of a football game is concerned that it will rain. She has the option of spending $14,040 on insurance that will pay $39,000 if it rains. She estimates that the revenue from the game will be $65,040 if it does not rain and $30,040 if it does rain. What must the chance of rain be if buying the policy has the same expected return as not buying it? Write expressions showing the expected returns if the promoter does and does not purchase the insurance, using p to represent the probability of rain. Without insurance, E(return) = With insurance, E(return) = The chance of rain must be _%.Now, imagine that Port Chester decides to crack down on motorists who park illegally by increasing the number of officers issuing parking tickets (thus, raising the probability of a ticket). If the cost of a ticket is $100, and the opportunity cost for the average driver of searching for parking is $12, which of the following probabilities would make the average person stop parking illegally? Assume that people will not park illegally if the expected value of doing so is negative. Check all that apply.In a Godiva shop, 40% of the cookies are plain truffles, 20% are black truffles, 10% are cherry cookies, and 30% are a mix of all the others. Suppose you pick one at random from a prepacked bag that reflects this composition. a. What is the probability of picking a plain truffle? b. What is the probability of picking truffle of any kind? c. If you instead pick three cookies in a row, what is the probability that all three are black truffles?
- Using the random variables X and Y from Table 2.2, consider two new random variables W = 4 + 8X and V = 11 - 2Y. Compute (a) E(W) and E(V); (b) J2W and J2V; and (c) JWV and corr(W, V).A lottery has a grand prize of $1,000,000, 2 runner-up prizes of $100,000 each, 6 third-place prizes of $10,000 each, and 19 consolation prizes of $1,000 each. If a 4 million tickets are sold for $1 each, and the probability of any ticket winning is the same as that of any other winning, find the expected return on a $1 ticket. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.John is a farmer with $225 of wealth. He can either plant corn or beans. If he plants corn, John earns an income of $675 if the weather is GOOD and $0 if the weather is BAD. If he plants beans, John earns an income of $451 under both GOOD and BAD weather. The probability of GOOD weather is 0.7. The probability of BAD weather is 0.3. John’s utility function is U(c) = 5√c , where c is the value of consumption. Mae owns an insurance company in a nearby town and has decided to offer conventional crop insurance to corn farmers in the area. Assume that Mae has perfect information and can write and enforce an insurance contract that requires the farmer to plant corn. Here’s how the insurance contract works. At the beginning of the year, the corn farmer pays an insurance premium of $202.5. If the weather is GOOD, Mae makes no payment to the farmer. If the weather is BAD, Mae makes an indemnity payment of $675 to the farmer. a. If a farmer buys this insurance contract,what is Mae’s expected…
- Let X1, X2, X3, X4 have the joint probability density functionf(x1, x2, x3, x4) = (24e−(x1+x2+x3+x4), 0 < x1, x2, x3, x4 < ∞0, elsewhereLet Y1 = X1, Y2 = X2 − X1, Y3 = X3 − X2, Y4 = X4 − X3.(i) Using the change of variable technique, find the joint probability density functionof Y1, Y2, Y3, Y4(ii) Find the conditional distribution of Y4 given Y1, Y2, Y3Suppose that an individual is just willing to accept a gamble to win or lose $1000 if the probability ofwinning is 0.6. Suppose that the utility gained if the individual wins is 100 utils. What is expected gains/loss.Suppose the market for auto insurance is made of up two types of buyers: high-risk and low-risk. Buyers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for auto insurance plans, and sellers’ willingness to accept (WTA) when selling plans to each type of buyer, are outlined in a photo Assume now that there is asymmetric information and that insurance companies do not knowhow risky an individual buyer is. In the face of this uncertainty, they determine that the probability that a “walk-in” is high-risk is 0.75. What is the minimum price sellers are willing to accept when selling aninsurance plan? At this price, will low- and high-risk buyers both be willing to purchase this insurance plan? Explain. Be sure the mention adverse selection in your answer. Returning to the conditions outlined in Q1, suppose that buyers of auto insurance (high- and low-risk) were offered a $1,000 subsidy to purchase coverage. This would raise their WTP by $1,000. Would the market for both insurance plans clear after the…
- A small bakery serves very popular fresh meat pies every day. The cost of making each pie is $2, and they are sold for $5 each. Unsold pies at the end of the day will be put for a quick sale for $1.00 each, and they are always sold out. The record of the past daily sales of the pies is presented below. Demand 100 150 200 250 300 350 Probability 10% 20% 25% 25% 15% 5% Answer the following question by showing the calculations: a. Construct a table of profits or losses for each possible quantity of the pies based on the demands as recorded above. How many pies should the bakery make every day to maximize the profit? b. Confirm your answer in sub-question a) using a full marginal analysis based on the costs of overestimating and underestimating demands.Please do not give solution in image format thanku Two Manufacturers supply food to a large cafeteria. Manufacturer A supplies 40% of the soup served in the cafeteria, while Manufacturer B supplies 60% of the soup that is served. 3% of the soup cans provided by Manufacturer A are found to be dented, while 1% of the cans provided by Manufacturer B are found to be dented. Given that a can of soup is dented, find the probability that it came from Manufacturer B.Arielle is a risk-averse traveler who is planning a trip to Canada. She is planning on carrying $400 in her backpack. Walking the streets of Canada, however, can be dangerous and there is some chance that she will have her backpack stolen. If she is only carrying cash and her backpack is stolen, she will have no money ($0). The probability that her backpack is stolen is 1/5. Finally assume that her preferences over money can be represented by the utility function U(x)=(x)^0.5 Suppose that she has the option to buy traveler’s checks. If her backpack is stolen and she is carrying traveler’s checks then she can have those checks replaced at no cost. National Express charges a fee of $p per $1 traveler’s check. In other words, the price of a $1 traveler’s check is $(1+p). If the purchase of traveler’s checks is a fair bet, then we know that the purchase of traveler checks will not change her expected income. Show that if the purchase is a fair bet, then the price (1+p) = $1.25.