Considering the actual demand values below for LCD TVs sold by a retailer per month, what is the forecast value for month 6 using the Weighted Moving Average method. Weights are 0.40 for the most recent, 0.30 for the 2nd most recent, 0.20 for 3rd most recent, and 0.10 for the 4th most recent. Month Demand 1 42 2 3 4 40 43 40 5 41 O Less than 41 units O 42 units forecasted value < 43 units O More than 43 units 41 units forecasted value < 42 units
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- Data collected on the yearly demand for 50-pound bags of fertilizer at Wallace Garden Supply are shown in the following table: YEAR DEMAND FOR FERTILIZER (1,000S OF BAGS) 1 4 2 6 3 4 4 5 5 10 6 8 7 7 8 9 9 12 10 14 11 15 a) Develop a trend line for the demand for fertilizer using any computer software? b) For these three forecasts, 3-year moving average, a weighted moving average, and a trend line, which one would you use? Explain your answer?The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer tovarious lawn and garden shops. The company must base itsquarterly production schedule on a forecast of how manytons of fertilizer will be demanded from it. The companyhas gathered the following data for the past three yearsfrom its sales records. a. Compute a three-quarter moving average forecast forquarters 4 through 13 and compute the forecast errorfor each quarter.b. Compute a five-quarter moving average forecast forquarters 6 through 13 and compute the forecast errorfor each quarter.c. Compute a weighted three-quarter moving averageforecast using weights of 0.50, 0.33, and 0.17 for the most recent, next recent, and most distant data, respec-tively, and compute the forecast error for each quarter. d. Compare the forecasts developed in parts (a), (b), and(c) using cumulative error. Which forecast appears tobe most accurate? Do any exhibit any bias?4) the accompanying dataset provides data on monthly unemployment rates for a certain region over four years. Compare 3- and 12- month moving average forecast using the MAD criterion. Which of the two models yields better results? (See picture) Find the MAD for the 3 month moving average forcast. MAD = _____
- During the past five months the emergency room at the new district Hospital has observed the number of patients during the weekend (Friday through Sunday). They typically experience greater patient traffic on weekends than during the week. WEEK NO. OF PATIENTS 1 105 2 119 3 122 4 128 5 117 6 136 7 141 8 126 9 143 10 140 a) Compute a weighted three-period moving average forecast, using weights of 3, 2, and 1 for the most recent, next recent, and most distant data. b) What are the MAD, MSE and the MPE for this method? c) If the company decided to forecast using exponential smoothing with value of alpha =.3, what is the forecast in month 11? (use 2 decimal places)ZIMS store sells its products on installments in Karachi. The store decided to investigate the link between the life of the product and the cost. The data collected from store is shown in Table 1.1:Table 1.1LIFE OF PRODUCT (Years) COST (Thousand Rupees)3.0 253.5 284.0 324.5 345.0 343.0 305.5 404.5 404.0 423.5 426.0 507.5 508.0 538.5 55a) Plot a scatter chart from the above data.b) Find the equation of the least square regression line in the form ? = ? + ??. Given the value of ? ??? ? up to 3 decimal places. c) What are the exact interpretations of the estimated regression factors? d) Using your answer of part (b). Find the cost predicted by the regression line for ?. ? year’s life of a product.Suppose there are three fare classes in an airline fares p1 = $300, p2 = $200, and p3 = $100. You want to utilize the EMSR-b heuristic to calculate the protection level for classes 1 and 2 together. The demand distribution for class 1 is Normal with mean 50 and standard deviation 5. The demand distribution for class 2 is Normal with mean 75 and standard deviation 12. What is the price for the virtual class 1-2 under EMSR-b?
- Floyd Distributors, Inc., provides a variety of auto parts to small local garages. Floyd purchases parts from manufacturers according to the EOQ model and then ships the parts from a regional warehouse direct to its customers. For a particular type of muffler, Floyd's EOQ analysis recommends orders with Q* = 20 to satisfy an annual demand of 180 mufflers. Floyd's has 250 working days per year, and the lead time averages 15 days.Note: Use Appendix B to identify the areas for the standard normal distribution. What is the reorder point if Floyd assumes a constant demand rate? If required, round your answer up to the nearest whole number. r = fill in the blank 1 Suppose that an analysis of Floyd's muffler demand shows that the lead-time demand follows a normal probability distribution with µ = 12 and σ = 2.2. If Floyd's management can tolerate one stock-out per year, what is the revised reorder point? If required, round your answer up to the nearest whole number. r = fill in the blank…Suppose these data show the number of gallons of gasoline sold by a gasoline distributor in Bennington, Vermont, over the past 12 weeks. Week Sales (1,000sof gallons) 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 24 5 18 6 16 7 21 8 19 9 22 10 21 11 16 12 23 *PLEASE REFER TO ATTACHED IMAGE FOR DATA! PART 1.Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time series. PART 2. Compute the MSE for the four-week moving average forecasts. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) PART 3.Compute the MSE for the five-week moving average forecasts. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)GreenLawns provides a lawn fertilizing and weed control service. The company is adding a special aeration treatment as a low-cost extra service option, which it hopes will help attract new customers. Management is planning to promote this new service in two media: radio and direct-mail advertising. A media budget of $4,000 is available for this promotional campaign. Based on past experience in promoting its other services, GreenLawns has obtained the following estimate of the relationship between sales and the amount spent on promotion in these two media: S = -2R2 − 12M2 − 9RM + 20R + 39M, Where S = total sales in thousands of dollars R = thousands of dollars spent on radio advertising M = thousands of dollars spent on direct-mail advertising GreenLawns would like to develop a promotional strategy that will lead to maximum sales subject to the restriction provided by the media budget. (a) What is the value of sales if $3,000 is spent on radio advertising and $1,000 is…
- ZIMS store sells its products on installments in Karachi. The store decided to investigate the link between the life of the product and the cost. The data collected from store is shown in Table 1.1Table 1.1LIFE OF PRODUCT (Years) COST (Thousand Rupees)3.0 253.5 284.0 324.5 345.0 343.0 305.5 404.5 404.0 423.5 426.0 507.5 508.0 538.5 55a) Plot a scatter chart from the above data.b) Find the equation of the least square regression line in the form ? = ? + ??Given the value of a and b up to 3 decimal places. c) What are the exact interpretations of the estimated regression factors? d) Using your answer of part (b). Find the cost predicted by the regression line for 6.5 year’s life of a product.A credit card company deals with many hundreds of thousands of transactions everyweek. One of its measures of the quality of service it gives its customers is the dependabilitywith which it mails customers’ monthly accounts. The quality standard it sets itself is thataccounts should be mailed within two days of the ‘nominal post date’ which is specified to thecustomer. Every week the company samples 1,000 customer accounts and records the percentagewhich was not mailed within the standard time. When the process is working normally, only 2per cent of accounts are mailed outside the specified period, that is, 2 per cent are‘defective’Required:Find the control limits and interpret the process conformance.Given the following data for demand at Southern Industries Ltd, calculate the forecast forperiods 4-10 using a 3 -period weighted moving average. The weight of 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2are assigned to the most recent period respectively. Determine the MAD, (mean absolutedeviation). Assume the control limit for the tracking signal is ± 5. Is this a good forecast? Period Demand Forecast Error MAD1 742 903 594 915 1406 987 1108 1239 99 10 112