Data in the matrix below indicates COST expected from 3 alternatives under 4 states of nature. Determine which alternative is dominant using With and Without Probability (use a = 0.3 and probability of: 30%; 20%; 40% & 10% for S1, S2, S3, and 54 respectively): Which alternative is best using Expected Value? S1 53 S4 10 15 12 20 15 25 Alternatives A1 A2 A3 S2 20 15 18 18 25 19
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- A road between Fairbanks and Nome, Alaska, will have a most likely construction cost of $7 million per mile. Doubling this cost is considered to have a probability of 30%, and cutting it by 25% is considered to have a probability of 10%. The state’s interest rate is 4%, and the road should last 25 years before major reconstruction. What is the probability distribution of the equivalent annual construction cost per mile?Which decision rule is most concerned with downside risk? A) Expected monetary value B) Maximax C) Maximin D) None of the aboveThe Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. Use expected value to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 What is the expected value of the market research information?…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…
- A company produces an electronic timing switch that is used in consumer and commercial products. The fixed cost (CF ) is $73,000 per month, and the variable cost (cv) is $83 per unit. The selling price per unit is p = $180 − 0.02(D). For this situation, (a) determine the optimal volume for this product and confirm that a profit occurs (instead of a loss) at this demand. (b) find the volumes at which breakeven occurs; that is, what is the range of profitable demand? Solve by hand and by spreadsheet."A financial investor has $31,000 to invest. The choices have been narrowed down to the following two options.-OPTION 1:Invest in a foreign bond that will mature in one year. This will entail an immediate brokerage fee of $100. For simplicity, assume that the bond will provide interest of $2,470, $2,130, or $1,527 over the one-year period and that the probabilities of these occurrences are assessed to be 0.29, 0.43, and 0.28, respectively.-OPTION 2:Invest in a $31,000 certificate with a savings-and-loan association. Assume that this certificate has an effective annual rate of 5.6%.Which form of the investment should the investor choose in order to maximize her expected financial gains? Enter the expected net gain (total return - initial investment - fee) of the preferred option."NewTech wants to consider risk and return in evaluating the following alternatives: c. What alternative will you choose based onc.1 MAXIMAX?c.2 MAXIMIN?c.3 MINIMAX REGRET?
- I am in possession of two coins. One is fair so that it lands heads (H) and tails (T)with equal probability while the other coin is weighted so that it always lands H. Bothcoins are magical: if either is flipped and lands H then a $1 bill appears in your wallet,but when it lands T nothing happens. You may only flip a coin once per period. Theinterest rate is i per period. You are risk-neutral and thus only concern yourself withexpected values (and not variance). For simplicity, in the questions below assumeyou will live forever.1. How much are you willing to pay for such a coin that you know is fair? 2. How much are you willing to pay for such a coin that you know is weighted? 3. I currently own the coins and know which is fair and which is weighted, but youcannot tell which is which. You may make an offer to purchase a coin of yourchoosing, which I am free to accept or reject. What is the most you are willingto offer? Explain how you arrived at this answer.You live in an area where there is a possibility of a massive earthquake, so consider purchasing earthquake insurance for your home at an annual cost of $180. The probability of an earthquake damaging your home in the course of a year is 0.001. If this occurs, you estimate that the cost of the damage (fully covered by insurance) will be $160,000. Your total assets (including the house) are worth $250,000. a) Apply the maximum expected value decision rule to determine the alternative (to buy insurance or not) that maximizes the value of your assets after one year. b) You developed a utility function that measures the value of your assets in x dollars (x ≥ 0). This utility function is U(x) = √x. Compare the utility of reducing the total of your assets for the next year by a value equal to the value of the insurance, with the expected utility next year of not purchasing tremor insurance. Should you purchase the insurance?Financial planners (and engineering economists) unanimously encourage people to seek out the highest rate of return possible within their personal level of risk tolerance. To illustrate this point, they frequently produce a table similar to the one below. Fill in the blank cells in this table assuming that your goal is to have $1,000,000 on your 65th birthday and that deposits start on your 26th birthday and continue annually in the same amount on each birthday up to and including your 65th birthday.