Estimating the incumbent advantage: Odds of Democrats winning election at time t+1 as a function of Democratic margin of victory at time t 1.00 9.90 0.80 6.60 0,20 Democratic Vets Share Margin of Victory, Election
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- Why does one employ data triangulation when predicting the outcome of elections1.17. Jones and Smith are running for public office. There are 99 voters.(a) Suppose the rules say that Jones wins if she receives 50 or morevotes; otherwise Smith wins. Is this method neutral?(b) Suppose the rules say that a candidate wins if he or she receivesa number of votes that is between 60 and 89. (If neither candidategets a winning number of votes, then the election is a tie.) Is thismethod monotone?(c) Suppose the rules say that a candidate wins if he or she receives anodd number of votes. (If neither candidate gets a winning numberof votes, then the election is a tie.) Is this method decisive?(d) Suppose that the rules say that Smith wins the election no matterwhat. Is this method anonymous?part G H I 4.7. The instant recall method works as follows. If there is a candidatewith the majority of the first-place votes, that candidate is declaredthe unique winner. Otherwise, the candidate with the plurality of thefirst-place votes is eliminated from the slate and the process is repeatedamong the remaining candidates. (Ignore the possibility that there maybe a tie for plurality winner.) The method is inspired by the recall elections that are permitted for California gubernatorial elections, which ineffect leave a system where plurality winners lacking majority supportare recallable, and so the ultimate holder of the governor’s office, if theelectorate so chooses, is the first candidate able to withstand a recall(the first candidate to have majority support) after prior plurality winners are eliminated (i.e., recalled). Arnold Schwarzenegger took office inCalifornia via a recall election.(a) Does instant recall satisfy anonymity?(b) Does instant recall satisfy neutrality?(c)…
- Match the following according to the criterion. If a candidate receives [ Choose ] more than half the first- place votes in an election, then that candidate should be declared the winner. If a candidate is favored [ Choose ] when compared separately with every other candidate in an election, then that candidate should be declared the winner. If a candidate wins an [ Choose] election and, in a reelection, the only changes are changes that favor the candidate, then that candidate should win the reelection. If a candidate wins an [ Choose ] election and, in a recount, the only changes are that one or more of the other candidates are removed from the ballot, then that candidate should still win the election.There is an election with three candidates: Lady Left (LL). Care Central (CC), and Robert Right (RR). The following are the outcomes in various two- and three-way races: CC. 100%. RR, 0% /LL, 0%. CC/ 100% RR, 51%, LL, 49% RR, 35%. LU 33% CC 329 The voting system is such that first there is a three way race. Then, if none of the three candidates wins more than 50% of the votes, there is a two-way runoff election between the two can Is this voting system consistent? Explain which property of consistency is violated, if any. Short answerDoes traditional one-person-one-vote (1p1v) majority voting allow voters to directly express differences in strengths of preference? Does quadratic voting do any better? Discuss the differences and then explain which system you prefer, and why.
- The city council is to decide on a proposal to raise property taxes. Suppose Ms. Tuttle is the chair and the council’s other two members are Mr. Jones and Mrs. Doubtfire. The voting procedure works as follows: Excluding the chair, Mr. Jones and Mrs. Doubtfire simultaneously write down their votes on slips of paper. Each writes either for or against the tax increase. The secretary of the city council then opens the slips of paper and announces the vote tally. If the secretary reports that both slips say for, then the tax increase is implemented and the game is over. If both vote against, then the tax increase is not implemented and, again, the game is over. However, if it is reported that the vote is one for and one against, then Ms. Tuttle has to vote. If she votes for, then the tax increase is implemented, and if she votes against, then it is not. In both cases, the game is then over. As to payoffs, if the tax increase is implemented, then Mrs. Doubtfire and Mr. Jones each receive a…Help me with 11. Pleasea. Consider the Oakdale Furniture Company described in the given problem. Under what circumstances might the major portion of the usage of the glue be predictable?b. If the demand were predictable, would you want to use a probability law todescribe it? Under what circumstances might the use of a probability model of demand be justified even if the demand could be predicted exactly?
- Using the Shapley power index, determine he power indices if A has 14 votes, B has 3 votes, and C has 2 votes. We require 17 votesSuppose that there are two ice cream vendors on a beach which isrepresented by the 0-1 interval. Customers are uniformly distributedalong that interval. The vendors simultaneously select a position. Cus-tomers go to the closest vendor and split themselves evenly if the ven-dors choose an identical position. Each vendors want to maximize itsnumber of customers. Which location should the vendors choose in the0-1 interval, why?urgent 1.15. Consider the Supreme Court as an electorate of 9 members thatvotes yes-or-no on a variety of issues. It is customary for this electorateto use the simple majority method, and since 9 is an odd number, no tiescan result when no justices are absent. Imagine the following alternativemethod for determining Supreme Court decisions. The decision is affirmative whenever at least 3 of the first 5 justices vote to affirm. Otherwisethe decision is negative. This is just the bloc voting method, where thejustices form blocs of size 5, 1, 1, 1, and 1. (This method emulates whatwould occur if the first 5 justices were to agree to always vote as a blocand to decide among themselves how the bloc should rule.)(a) Is this method anonymous?(b) Is this method neutral?(c) Is this method monotone?(d) If you were one of the 4 justices not among the first 5, why wouldyou complain about this voting method?