Firms A and B are contemplating whether or not to invest in R&D. Each has two options: “Invest” and “Abstain.” A firm that invests will invent product X with a probability of 0.5, whereas a firm that abstains is incapable of invention. Investment costs $6. If a firm doesn’t invent X, it makes$0 in revenue. If a firm invests and is the only one to invent X, it becomes a monopolist and generates $20 in revenue. If both firms invent X, each firm becomes a duopolist, and generates$8 in revenue. Revenues are gross figures (i.e. they are not net of investment costs), and there are no costs besides investments costs (i.e. no variable cost of production etc.). The firms are risk-neutral entities, and are uninformed of each other’s investment decisions. What is Firm A’s expected gross revenue (i.e., not net of investment costs) from investing, assuming Firm B invests (i.e. conditional on Firm B investing)? A) -$1B)$2C) $7D)$8E) None of the above

Question

Firms A and B are contemplating whether or not to invest in R&D. Each has two options: “Invest” and “Abstain.” A firm that invests will invent product X with a probability of 0.5, whereas a firm that abstains is incapable of invention. Investment costs $6. If a firm doesn’t invent X, it makes$0 in revenue. If a firm invests and is the only one to invent X, it becomes a monopolist and generates $20 in revenue. If both firms invent X, each firm becomes a duopolist, and generates$8 in revenue. Revenues are gross figures (i.e. they are not net of investment costs), and there are no costs besides investments costs (i.e. no variable cost of production etc.). The firms are risk-neutral entities, and are uninformed of each other’s investment decisions.

What is Firm A’s expected gross revenue (i.e., not net of investment costs) from investing, assuming Firm B invests (i.e. conditional on Firm B investing)?

A) -$1 B)$2
C) $7 D)$8
E) None of the above