A monthly pass for the Stockholm subway costs $100, and fare dodgers who are caught face a fine of about $160. Stockholm transport has increased the number of ticket checks conducted, and the probability of being caught while riding the subway without paying is now 1%. Liam rides the subway 50 times a month, so that each month the probability that he is caught equals 50 x 1% = 50% and he expects to pay 50 (0.01 x $160) = $80 in fines each month he rides the subway without buying the monthly pass.
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- Suppose that Winnie the Pooh and Eeyore have the same value function: v(x) = x1/2 for gains and v(x) = -2(|x|)1/2 for losses. The two are also facing the same choice, between (S) $1 for sure and (G) a gamble with a 25% chance of winning $4 and a 75% chance of winning nothing. Winnie the Pooh and Eeyore both subjectively weight probabilities correctly. Winnie the Pooh codes all outcomes as gains; that is, he takes as his reference point winning nothing. For Pooh: What is the value of S? What is the value of G? Which would he choose? Eeyore codes all outcomes as losses; that is, he takes as his reference point winning $4. For Eeyore: What is the value of S? What is the value of G? Which would he choose?Wanda works as a waitress and consequently has the opportunity to earn cash tips that are not reported by her employer to the Internal Revenue Service. Her tip income is rather variable. In a good year (G), she earns a high income, so her tax liability to the IRS is $5000. In a bad year (B), she earns a low income, and her tax liability to the IRS is $0. The IRS knows that the probability of her having a good year is 0.6, and the probability of her having a bad year is 0.4, but it doesn’t know for sure which outcome has resulted for her this tax year. In this game, first Wanda decides how much income to report to the IRS. If she reports high income (H), she pays the IRS $5000. If she reports low income (L), she pays the IRS $0. Then the IRS has to decide whether to audit Wanda. If she reports high income, they do not audit, because they automatically know they’re already receiving the tax payment Wanda owes. If she reports low income, then the IRS can either audit (A) or not audit…In homes without working fire alarms, the chance of dying in a non-confined home fire is .0164 if there is a fire. In homes with working fire alarm, the chance of dying is .0115 if there is a fire.1 Similarly, the chance of a non-confined house fire occurring is about 0.0015 (= 92,450/125,000,000). So, all else being equal, the chances of dying in your home due to a non-confined house fire are 0.000025 and 0.000017, respectively, without and with a fire alarm. Noting that smoke alarms range in price from $15 to $60 a piece, can we use this data and the trade-off method to estimate a range in the value of a statistical life? If so, what are these values? Do they seem reasonable? Please show all of your work and provide a raionale
- Deborah is at the casino and is considering playing Roulette. In Roulette, a ball drops into one of 36 slots on a spinning wheel. 17 of the slots are red, 17 are black, and 2 are green. Each slot is equally likely and occurs with probability 1/36. Deborah bets $1.00 on black. If the ball drops into a black slot she receives $2.00 and if it drops into a red or green slot, she receives nothing. a) The expected value of Deborah’s bet (after subtracting the $1.00 she bet) is $________________ b) Given that Deborah makes this bet, is she risk adverse, risk neutral, or risk loving?Suppose that an individual is just willing to accept a gamble to win or lose $1000 if the probability ofwinning is 0.6. Suppose that the utility gained if the individual wins is 100 utils. What is expected gains/loss.Suppose that an individual is just willing to accept a gamble to win or lose $1000 if the probability ofwinning is 0.6. Suppose that the utility gained if the individual wins is 100 utils. How much utility does one lose if one loses the gamble?
- David Barnes and his fiancée Valerie Shah are visiting Hawaii. At the Hawaiian Cultural Center in Honolulu, they are told that 2 out of a group of 8 people will be randomly picked for a free lesson of a Tahitian dance a. What is the probability that both David and Valerie get picked for the Tahitian dance lesson? (round 4 decimal places) b. What is the probability that Valerie gets picked before David for the Tahitian dance lesson? (round 4 decimal places)"Jay, a writer of novels, just has completed a new thriller novel. A movie company and a TV network both want exclusive rights to market his new title. If he signs with the network, he will receive a single lump sum of $1,480,000, but if he signs with the movie company, the amount he will receive depends on how successful the movie is at the box office.The probability of a small box office earning $203,000 is 0.27. The probability of a medium box office of $1,660,000 is 0.49, and the probability of a large box office of $2,950,000 is 0.24.Jay can send his novel to a prominent movie critic to assess the potential box office success. It will cost $20,000 to get the novel evaluated by the movie critic.The movie critic can have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion. The movie critic's reliability of predicting box office success is as follows.If the movie will have a large box office, there is a 0.75 probability the critic will have a favorable opinion.If the movie will have a medium…"Jay, a writer of novels, just has completed a new thriller novel. A movie company and a TV network both want exclusive rights to market his new title. If he signs with the network, he will receive a single lump sum of $1,460,000, but if he signs with the movie company, the amount he will receive depends on how successful the movie is at the box office.The probability of a small box office earning $210,000 is 0.27. The probability of a medium box office of $1,530,000 is 0.64, and the probability of a large box office of $3,190,000 is 0.09.Jay can send his novel to a prominent movie critic to assess the potential box office success. It will cost $21,000 to get the novel evaluated by the movie critic.The movie critic can have either a favorable or unfavorable opinion. The movie critic's reliability of predicting box office success is as follows.If the movie will have a large box office, there is a 0.61 probability the critic will have a favorable opinion.If the movie will have a medium…
- A thousand used cars are for sale in Boston. Some of the cars are of good quality (“plums”), and some are not (“lemons”), but the buyer cannot tell the difference between the two qualities; of course the seller knows whether the car is a lemon or a plum. Suppose that consumers are willing to pay $4,000 for a lemon and $6,400 for a plum; and sellers are willing to sell a lemon for $3,500 and a plum for $5,600. a. If there is a 40% chance that a car is a lemon, how many cars will be sold? And what is the maximum consumer surplus in this case. b. If there is a 10% chance that a car is a lemon, how many cars will be sold? And what is the maximum consumer surplus in this case? Kindly answer in detail with all stepsClancy has $4800. He plans to bet on a boxing match betweenSullivan and Flanagan. He finds that he can buy coupons for $6 thatwill pay off $10 each if Sullivan wins. He also finds in another storesome coupons that will pay off $10 if Flanagan wins. The Flanagantickets cost $4 each. Clancy believes that the two fighters each have aprobability of ½ of winning. Clancy is a risk averter who tries tomaximize the expected value of the natural log of his wealth. Whichof the following strategies would maximize his expected utility? (a) Don’t Gamble (b) Buy 400 S tickets and 600 F tickets(c) Buy exactly as many F tickets and S tickets (d) Buy 200 S and 300 F(e) Buy 200 S and 600 FY5 Alfred is a risk-averse person with $100 in monetary wealth and owns a house worth $300, for total wealth of $400. The probability that his house is destroyed by fire (equivalent to a loss of $300) is pne = 0.5. If he exerts an effort level e = 0.3 to keep his house safe, the probability falls to pe = 0.2. His utility function is: U = w0.5 – e where e is effort level exerted (zero in the case of no effort and 0.3 in the case of effort).a. In the absence of insurance, does Alfred exert effort to lower the probability of fire?HINT: Calculate and compare the expected utility i) with effort, and ii) without effort. If effort is exerted, then the effort cost is paid regardless of whether or not a fire occurs.b. Alfred is considering buying fire insurance. The insurance agent explains that a home owner’s insurance policy would require paying a premium α and would repay the value of the house in the event of fire, minus a deductible “D”. [A deductible is an amount of money that the…