Answered: For a certain company, the monthly… | bartleby

Algebra & Trigonometry with Analytic Geometry

Algebra & Trigonometry with Analytic Geometry

13th Edition

ISBN:9781133382119

Author:Swokowski

Publisher:Swokowski

Chapter10: Sequences, Series, And Probability

Section10.3: Geometric Sequences

Problem 82E

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Question

Please answer part B and C

For a certain company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 84, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 85, and 83.
(a) Construct a time series plot.
86
86
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83
83
82
82
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80
79
79
78-
78
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77
0 12 3 45 6 78 9 10 11 12 13
0 1 2 3 456 7 89 10 11 12 13
Month
Month
86
86
85
85
84
84
83
83
82
82
81
81
80
80
79
79
78
77+ +
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 89 10 11 12 13
78
77
0 1 2 3 45 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Month
Month

What type of pattern exists in the data?
O Overall, the time series plot exhibits a consistent trend pattern.
O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a seasonal pattern.
O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a cyclical pattern.
O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern.
O The last two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern.
(b) Compare a three-month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.3.
Compute the MSE for the three-month moving forecast. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
Compute the MSE for the exponential smoothing forecast for a = 0.3. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
Which provides more accurate forecasts using MSE as the measure of forecast accuracy?
O Both forecastes provide the same level of accuracy using MSE.
A 3-month moving average provides the most accurate forecast using MSE.
An exponential smoothing forecast with a = 0.3 provides the most accurate forecast using MSE.
(c) Using the more accurate forecast, what is the forecast for the next month? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)

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