Forecast for period 24 using the following three methods: Exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.25; Moving average with n= 5; and Linear trend Using MAPE, what is the best forecast method in Part a?
Q: Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of…
A: Given - Week Forcast Actual Demand 1 0.95 0.72 2 1.08 1.00 3 0.95 1.07 4 1.22 0.97
Q: Given the demand data, answer the following questions below. Year Sales 1 - 123 2 - 118 3 -…
A: A moving average is a method to obtain a complete analysis of the trends in a data kit; it is an…
Q: Following are two weekly forecasts made by two different methods for the number of gallons of…
A: Formula to solve this problem: - MAD=Sum of errornMSE = Sum of Squared errorn
Q: Please show work
A:
Q: Given the following history, use a three-quarter moving average to forecast the demand for the third…
A: Solution Moving average considers the average of the past data. The average can be of three periods…
Q: Tracy is the the Director of Supply Chain at Circuits Inc. An accurate forecast at Circuits Inc. is…
A: Error = Actual demand - Forecast Absolute Error = Positive Value of Error MAD = Average of Absolute…
Q: Given the following demand data,a. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of .40 for the…
A: 4-period weighted average forecast: Formula: Answer:
Q: Cadbury started an in-depth study to forecast customer demand based on data it previously recorded.…
A: The given question is solved in Step 2.
Q: The tracking signals (TS) computed using past demand history for three different products are as…
A: This question is related to the topic-forecasting approach and this topic fall under the operations…
Q: The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months:…
A:
Q: he 2-month SMA forecast for Month 6 would be: * 565 haircuts 574 haircuts 578 haircuts 584…
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: The demand data for Double T Computer Services appears below. The company wants you to forecast the…
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: After plotting the following demand data, a manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted exponential…
A: Given- α=0.6β=0.5 Month At (Actual) 1 208 2 219 3 232 4 244 5 258 6 268 7 285 8…
Q: The average demand for January has been 80, and the average annual demandhas been 1800. Calculate…
A: Forecasting in operations management is a process by which predictions are made for the production.…
Q: Forecasted Year Sales Sales 2005 455 415.00 2006 510 427.00 2007 516 451.90 2008 570 471.13 2009 585…
A: Given that: Smoothing constant = 0.6 Starting Forecast = 415 and Year Sales 2005 455 2006 510…
Q: The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 6. 7 8 10…
A:
Q: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Demand 20 21 27 37 26 29 36 20 25 28 The forecast for weeks 2 through 10…
A: Forecasting is the procedure of doing estimations of upcoming activities on the basis of past and…
Q: ACTUAL DEMAND 2011 Spring 203 Summer 144
A: YEAR SEASONACTUAL DEMAND 2011 Spring 203 Summer 144 Fall 382 Winter 565…
Q: Assignment What if we use a 3-month simple moving average? Kroger sells (among other stuff) bottled…
A:
Q: Developing joint forecasting with supply chain partners offersthe following benefits:a) Reduce…
A: A supply chain is a network between a business and its suppliers to manufacture and sell to the…
Q: The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 4 7 8 10 11…
A: Given - Table for demand seen in past years- Year Actual Demand 1 6 2 9 3 4 4 9 5 13…
Q: The following are historical demand data: ACTUAL YEAR SEASON DEILAND 204 2011 Spring Summer 150 Fall…
A: given,
Q: John's House of Pancakes uses a weighted moving average method to forecast pancake sales. It…
A: Weighted moving average:In weighted moving average equal weights are assigned to all periods in the…
Q: The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year Demand 1 2 7 10 3…
A: Forecast for Year 4 = (Sum of Demand of Year 3,Year 2, Year 1) / 3 Year 4 5 6 7 8…
Q: Find four years weighted moving average? Forecast for 2019 with weights 1,4,2, ….. , Also find…
A: Given data is
Q: What should be our forecast accuracy target if there is a high degree of volatility in customer…
A: Forecasting is the process of estimating the future demand according to the historic or previous…
Q: Sales of Volkswagen's popular Beetle have grown steadily at auto dealerships in Nevada during the…
A: Given table- Year Sales 1 450 2 502 3 520 4 570 5 575
Q: Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZTC) manufactures a number of navigation packages for pleasure…
A: Find the Given details below: Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Total Demand 700 600 400 650 850…
Q: The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:…
A:
Q: 1. The Southern Pizza Parlor is a small restaurant. One of the customers' favorites is Southern…
A: Forecasting helps to know the sales of the product in advance so that appropriate stock levels are…
Q: Identify the cultural scenario that is the most credible—that is, the forecast that you see most…
A: The given case is based on cultural scenario Cultural scenario - there are variety of culture…
Q: The table below shows actual demands for Fastway. Week Actual demand 20 63 21 62 22 67 23 66 24 67…
A: Formula for exponential smoothing model : Ft = At-1*alpha + (1-alpha)*Ft-1 The demand table is :…
Q: Clinic administrator Marc Schniederjans wants you to forecast patient demand at the clinic for week…
A: Below is the solution:-
Q: Demand at Nature Trails Ski Resort has a seasonal pattern.Demand is highest during the winter, as…
A: Given data is
Q: The historical data for 4 periods demand are 65, 60, 80, and 70 respectively. Calculate the weighted…
A: Period Demand 1 65 2 60 3 80 4 70 WMA (0.4,0.6)
Q: a. Using linear regression analysis, what would you estimate demand to be for each month next year?…
A: THE ANSWER IS AS BELOW:
Q: The manager of XYZ carpet cleaning company needs a weekly forecast of the number of customers…
A: Find the Given details below: Given Details: Demand Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Week 1 102 114…
Q: March demand was pridicted at 590 units of gear cycles of trevaa ltd. But the actual demand was 400…
A: Given: March demand forecasted (Ft-1) = 590 Units March actual demand (At-1) = 400 Units Alpha =…
Q: 1 demand of cotton(intones) by Westham textile S.C are shown below year 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 Actual demand…
A: Given information, Year Actual Demand 1 10 2 11 3 13 4 15 5 14 6 16 7 18 8 20
Q: The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:…
A: Given Information:
Q: Problem 3-28 (Algo) The following are historical demand data: АCTUAL DEMAND 206 YEAR SEASON Spring…
A: To anticipate demand on time series data, we'll use Excel software.First, we'll forecast using…
Q: Not all the items in your office supply store are evenly distributed as far as demand is concerned,…
A: Given- Week Demand Week 1 250 Week 2 350 Week 3 550 Week 4 650
Q: Following data on the demand for sewing machines manufactured by Taylor and Son Co. have been…
A: Forecasting is the process of prediction in which sales demand is estimated using historic…
Q: Specialty Toys, Inc., sells a variety of new and innovative children's toys. Management learned that…
A: : Since we only answer up to 3 sub-parts, we’ll answer the first 3. Please resubmit the question and…
Q: Determine the total cost for this plan given the following forecast:Month 1 2 3 4 5 6Forecast 380…
A: Following is the brief of production schedule: While forecast for month 1 is 380, actual production…
Case Study 1: The AusCandy Demand
The following table shows the historical demand data for product A in AusCandy Co. Answer the following questions.
Period |
Actual demand |
Period |
Actual demand |
1 |
25 |
13 |
24 |
2 |
21 |
14 |
26 |
3 |
11 |
15 |
38 |
4 |
12 |
16 |
30 |
5 |
14 |
17 |
23 |
6 |
18 |
18 |
40 |
7 |
32 |
19 |
41 |
8 |
23 |
20 |
32 |
9 |
25 |
21 |
44 |
10 |
20 |
22 |
41 |
11 |
26 |
23 |
28 |
12 |
29 |
|
|
Forecast for period 24 using the following three methods: Exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.25; Moving average with n= 5; and Linear trend- Using MAPE, what is the best forecast method in Part a?
Trending now
This is a popular solution!
Step by step
Solved in 3 steps with 2 images
- Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. Ethical decisions that affect a buyers ethical perspective usually involve the organizational environment, cultural environment, personal environment, and industry environment. Analyze this scenario using these four variables.
- Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What should Sharon do in this situation?Scenario 4 Sharon Gillespie, a new buyer at Visionex, Inc., was reviewing quotations for a tooling contract submitted by four suppliers. She was evaluating the quotes based on price, target quality levels, and delivery lead time promises. As she was working, her manager, Dave Cox, entered her office. He asked how everything was progressing and if she needed any help. She mentioned she was reviewing quotations from suppliers for a tooling contract. Dave asked who the interested suppliers were and if she had made a decision. Sharon indicated that one supplier, Apex, appeared to fit exactly the requirements Visionex had specified in the proposal. Dave told her to keep up the good work. Later that day Dave again visited Sharons office. He stated that he had done some research on the suppliers and felt that another supplier, Micron, appeared to have the best track record with Visionex. He pointed out that Sharons first choice was a new supplier to Visionex and there was some risk involved with that choice. Dave indicated that it would please him greatly if she selected Micron for the contract. The next day Sharon was having lunch with another buyer, Mark Smith. She mentioned the conversation with Dave and said she honestly felt that Apex was the best choice. When Mark asked Sharon who Dave preferred, she answered, Micron. At that point Mark rolled his eyes and shook his head. Sharon asked what the body language was all about. Mark replied, Look, I know youre new but you should know this. I heard last week that Daves brother-in-law is a new part owner of Micron. I was wondering how soon it would be before he started steering business to that company. He is not the straightest character. Sharon was shocked. After a few moments, she announced that her original choice was still the best selection. At that point Mark reminded Sharon that she was replacing a terminated buyer who did not go along with one of Daves previous preferred suppliers. What does the Institute of Supply Management code of ethics say about financial conflicts of interest?Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 7 9 6 10 12 7 12 12 9 9 8 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Part 3 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers).The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 7 11 7 13 12 10 13 8 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. Part 2 b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Part 3 c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.10, 0.30, and 0.60, using 0.60 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal places). Part 4 d) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed…
- Khyber Teaching Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the last five years are as follows.Year 1 2 3 4 5Mileage 4,000 5,000 4,400 4,800 4,700a) Forecast the mileage for next year using a two year moving average. b) Find the MAD for your forecast in part 1.c) Use a weighted two year moving average with weights of 0.4 and 0.6 to forecast next year mileage. What is the MAD of this forecast?d) Compute the forecast for year 6 using exponential smoothing, an initial forecast for year 1 of 4,000 miles and α = 0.5The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 10 11 9 12 12 8 13 6 This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d. b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Year 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast 66 7.337.33 8.338.33 1010 10.6610.66 1111 10.6610.66 1111 99 c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights 0.15, 0.30, and 0.55, using 0.55 for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal places).The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 6 8 4 9 13 8 11 14 9 13 7 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.40 and a forecast for year 1 of 5.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Forecast 5.0 enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here enter your response here