From the following data fit a free hand smooth curve and forecast the trend values thereby. |1986198719881989 199019911992199319941995199619971998 Year: Prodn. of peddy (in '000 tonnes) : 65 | 80 | 100| 70 | 80 110 115 130 90 100 150 160 120
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- Table 6 shows the population, in thousands, of harbor seals in the Wadden Sea over the years 1997 to 2012. a. Let x represent time in years starting with x=0 for the year 1997. Let y represent the number of seals in thousands. Use logistic regression to fit a model to these data. b. Use the model to predict the seal population for the year 2020. c. To the nearest whole number, what is the limiting value of this model?The MAD for the forecast developed using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.350.35 and 0.650.65 is what?The table given below indicates Small Holding Ltd.’s quarterly profits in 2019 and 2020.Time Period Profit (Thousands Of Rands)2019 Q1 2502019 Q2 2102019 Q3 1652019 Q4 1952020 Q1 2652020 Q2 2182020 Q3 1782020 Q4 204Q.6.3.1 Determine the trend regression function for this data set. In order to obtain full marks for this question, you must complete the relevanttable (template provided below) and then apply the appropriate timeseries formulae in the formulae sheet.Q.6.3.2 Given that the typical seasonal index for Q3 is 87.3, use this informationand the trend regression function obtained in Q.6.3.1 to determine theseasonally adjusted trend estimate for profits in Q3 of 2022.
- The table given below indicates New Holding Ltd.’s quarterly profits in 2019 and 2020.Time Period Profit (Thousands Of Rands)2019 Q1 2502019 Q2 2102019 Q3 1652019 Q4 1952020 Q1 2652020 Q2 2182020 Q3 1782020 Q4 204 Determine the trend regression function for this data set. Given that the typical seasonal index for Q3 is 87.3, use this informationand the trend regression function obtained to determine theseasonally adjusted trend estimate for profits in Q3 of 2022.Which of the following is true regarding a volcano plot? Its visualization can only display the significantly up-regulated genes and is unable to indicate significantly down-regulated genes. The p-value threshold for determining significantly up-regulated genes need not be the same as the threshold that determines significantly down-regulated genes. Points with non-significant changes aren't displayed. The x-axis displays log10-fold changes in gene expression.Find the forecast for the month of May using the exponential smoothing methodDemand dataJan 32.1 Feb 36.2 Mar 28.0 Apr 27.5And the January Forecast was: 27Smoothing constant = 0.15b) Find the mean absolute deviation (MAD) if the actual demand for May is 30.0
- For a period of 11 years, the figures in the accompanying table were found for annual change in unemployment rate and annual change in mean employee absence rate due to own illness. Year Change in UnemploymentRate Change in Mean Employee Absence Rate Due to Own Illness (Y) 1 -0.2 0.2 2 -0.1 0.2 3 1.4 0.2 4 1.0 -0.4 5 -0.3 -0.1 6 -0.7 0.2 7 0.7 -0.1 8 2.9 -0.8 9 -0.8 0.2 10 -0.7 0.2 11 -1.0 0.2 a. Estimate the linear regression of change in mean employee absence rate due to own illness on change in unemployment rate. b. Interpret the estimated slope of the regression line. thanks.The following ratio-to-moving averages for the seasonally adjusted series were found by the decomposition method applied on a time series representing quarterly sales for January 2018 to December 2020 period: a. Calculate the Seasonal Index for every quarter. b. If the trend is described by the trend line T^ = 1,000 + 30 t, what is the forecast for the fourth quarter of 2021?1. The following data has been collected to determine if a relationship exists between the amountof snowfall in Toronto and the number of students who attend lecture at U of T.Year Snowfall, x (cm) Number of students in class, y1995 173 1821996 165 1901997 152 2071998 184 1801999 178 184a. Determine the line of best fit by creating a scatter plot in Excel, a trendline, and thecorrelation coefficient. Make sure your scatter plot is properly titled and formatted.b. Explain what this correlation tells you about the relationship between the amount ofsnowfall and the number of students who attend lecture.c. How many students could we expect to attend a lecture if it were to snow 160 cm in aseason. Is this an example of interpolation or extrapolation?
- John Kittle, an independent insurance agent, uses a five-year moving average to forecast the number of claims made in a single year for one of the large insurance companies he sells for. He has just discovered that a clerk in his employ incorrectly entered the number of claims made four years ago as 1,400 when it should have been 1,200.a. What adjustment should Mr. Kittle make in next year’s forecast to take into account the corrected value of the number of claims four years ago?b. Suppose that Mr. Kittle used simple exponential smoothing with a = .2instead of moving averages to determine his forecast. What adjustment is now required in next year’s forecast? (Note that you do not need to know the value of the forecast for next year in order to solve this problem.)Q3 The following data relates to the gross value of output of a factory over the last few years:Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Production(in ‘000 tons)60 72.5 85.6 106.8 125.5 145.4 156.2Fit a straight-line trend using the method of least squares. Calculate the parabolic trend equation to predict the average annual output. Predict the trend values using each of the model and comment on its suitabilityConsider the following data:Monthly Profit of an Auto Repair Shop Month Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Profit ($) 17,527 17,677 16,455 18,642 20,163 17,350 19,127 18,622 20,422 Step 3 of 4 : Determine the exponential smoothing forecast for the next time period using a smoothing constant of 0.35. If necessary, round your answer to one decimal place. I have been stuck on this for 2 days now. I do not understand exponential smoothing forecast at all and the textbook is not helpful. I have tried looking at the textbook, using the step-by-step learning tools, and youtube videos and it still isn't helping.