The number of items in the population is 25,000.The number of blue items in the population is315. The number of items in the sample is 500.The probability of observing more than 8 blueitems in the sample isto 4 decimal places.Round your answer.1145.8180.18206.30There is not enough information to answer this questionNone of the aboveQUESTION 8The average number of phone calls to a callcenter on Thursday nights from 10:00 PM to11:00 PM is 6.3. The probability of less than 3calls being received by that call center on anygiven Thursday night from 10:00 PM to 11:00 PMisRound your answer to 4 decimal places..1264.0765.0364.0498There is not enough information to answer this questionNone of the above

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Answered: he number of items in the sa robability…

Business

Operations Management

he number of items in the sa robability of observing more in the sample is Rour

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.6: The Role Of Risk Aversion

Problem 26P

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Use Excels functions (not @RISK) to generate 1000 random numbers from a normal distribution with mean 100 and standard deviation 10. Then freeze these random numbers. a. Calculate the mean and standard deviation of these random numbers. Are they approximately what you would expect? b. What fraction of these random numbers are within k standard deviations of the mean? Answer for k = 1; for k = 2; for k = 3. Are the answers close to what they should be (about 68% for k = 1, about 95% for k = 2, and over 99% for k = 3)? c. Create a histogram of the random numbers using about 10 bins of your choice. Does this histogram have approximately the shape you would expect?
Based on Babich (1992). Suppose that each week each of 300 families buys a gallon of orange juice from company A, B, or C. Let pA denote the probability that a gallon produced by company A is of unsatisfactory quality, and define pB and pC similarly for companies B and C. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is satisfactory, the next week they will purchase a gallon of juice from the same company. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is not satisfactory, the family will purchase a gallon from a competitor. Consider a week in which A families have purchased juice A, B families have purchased juice B, and C families have purchased juice C. Assume that families that switch brands during a period are allocated to the remaining brands in a manner that is proportional to the current market shares of the other brands. For example, if a customer switches from brand A, there is probability B/(B + C) that he will switch to brand B and probability C/(B + C) that he will switch to brand C. Suppose that the market is currently divided equally: 10,000 families for each of the three brands. a. After a year, what will the market share for each firm be? Assume pA = 0.10, pB = 0.15, and pC = 0.20. (Hint: You will need to use the RISKBINOMLAL function to see how many people switch from A and then use the RISKBENOMIAL function again to see how many switch from A to B and from A to C. However, if your model requires more RISKBINOMIAL functions than the number allowed in the academic version of @RISK, remember that you can instead use the BENOM.INV (or the old CRITBENOM) function to generate binomially distributed random numbers. This takes the form =BINOM.INV (ntrials, psuccess, RAND()).) b. Suppose a 1% increase in market share is worth 10,000 per week to company A. Company A believes that for a cost of 1 million per year it can cut the percentage of unsatisfactory juice cartons in half. Is this worthwhile? (Use the same values of pA, pB, and pC as in part a.)
Use @RISK to draw a binomial distribution that results from 50 trials with probability of success 0.3 on each trial, and use it to answer the following questions. a. What are the mean and standard deviation of this distribution? b. You have to be more careful in interpreting @RISK probabilities with a discrete distribution such as this binomial. For example, if you move the left slider to 11, you find a probability of 0.139 to the left of it. But is this the probability of less than 11 or less than or equal to 11? One way to check is to use Excels BINOM.DIST function. Use this function to interpret the 0.139 value from @RISK. c. Using part b to guide you, use @RISK to find the probability that a random number from this distribution will be greater than 17. Check your answer by using the BINOM.DIST function appropriately in Excel.
Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.
The game of Chuck-a-Luck is played as follows: You pick a number between 1 and 6 and toss three dice. If your number does not appear, you lose 1. If your number appears x times, you win x. On the average, use simulation to find the average amount of money you will win or lose on each play of the game.
A calculus instructor uses computer-aided instruction and allows students to take the midterm exam as many times as needed until a passing grade is obtained. Following is a record of the number of students in a class of 50 who took the test each number of times. Students Number of Tests 22 1 15 2 8 3 5 4 a.Find the expected value of the number of tests taken. b.Compute the variance and the standard deviation of the number of tests taken.
A carpenter is making doors that are 2058 millimeters tall. If the doors are too long they must be trimmed, and if they are too short they cannot be used. A sample of 13 doors is made, and it is found that they have a mean of 2043 millimeters with a variance of 1024. Is there evidence at the 0.025 level that the doors are too short and unusable? State the null and alternative hypotheses for the above scenario.
Hi is this correct?The management of an oil company is trying to decide whether to drill for oil in a particular fieldin the Gulf of Mexico. It costs the company $600 thousand to drill in the selected field. Themanagement believes that if oil is found in this field, its estimated value will be $3400 thousand. Atpresent, this oil company believes that there is a 45% chance that the selected field actually containsoil. Before drilling, the oil company can hire a team of geologists to perform seismographic tests at acost of $55 thousand. Based on similar tests in other fields, the tests have a 25% false negative rate(no oil predicted when oil is present) and a 15% false positive rate (oil predicted when no oil ispresent).A. Assume the oil company wants to maximize its expected net earnings. Please utilize decisiontree analysis to determine its optimal strategy.B. Calculate the expected value of the information (EVI/EVSI) provided by the team ofgeologists.C. Calculate and interpret EVPI…
A manufacturer of programmable calculators is attempting to determine a reasonable free-service period for a model it will introduce shortly. The manager of product testing has indicated that the calculators have an expected life of 30 months. Assume product life can be described by an exponential distribution. T / MTBF e-T /MTBF T / MTBF e-T /MTBF T / MTBF e-T /MTBF 0.10 0.9048 2.60 0.0743 5.10 0.0061 0.20 0.8187 2.70 0.0672 5.20 0.0055 0.30 0.7408 2.80 0.0608 5.30 0.0050 0.40 0.6703 2.90 0.0550 5.40 0.0045 0.50 0.6065 3.00 0.0498 5.50 0.0041 0.60 0.5488 3.10 0.0450 5.60 0.0037 0.70 0.4966 3.20 0.0408 5.70 0.0033 0.80 0.4493 3.30 0.0369 5.80 0.0030 0.90 0.4066 3.40 0.0334 5.90 0.0027 1.00 0.3679 3.50 0.0302 6.00 0.0025 1.10 0.3329 3.60 0.0273 6.10 0.0022 1.20 0.3012 3.70 0.0247 6.20 0.0020 1.30 0.2725 3.80 0.0224 6.30 0.0018 1.40 0.2466 3.90 0.0202 6.40 0.0017 1.50 0.2231 4.00 0.0183 6.50 0.0015 1.60 0.2019 4.10 0.0166 6.60 0.0014 1.70 0.1827 4.20…
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