In the past, Peter Kelle's tire dealership in BatonRouge sold an average of I ,000 radials each year. In the past2 years, 200 and 250, respectively, were sold in fa ll, 350 and 300 inCHAPTER 4 FORECASTING 149winter, ISO and 165 in spring, and 300 and 285 in summer. With amajor expansion planned, Kelle projects sales next year to increaseto I ,200 radials. What will be the demand during each season? ~(Mylab Operations Management also includes a shorter (brief)version of this problem.)
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In the past, Peter Kelle's tire dealership in Baton Rouge sold an average of I ,000 radials each year. In the past 2 years, 200 and 250, respectively, were sold in fa ll, 350 and 300 in CHAPTER 4 winter, ISO and 165 in spring, and 300 and 285 in summer. With a major expansion planned, Kelle projects sales next year to increase to I ,200 radials. What will be the demand during each season? ~ (Mylab Operations Management also includes a shorter (brief) version of this problem.) |
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- At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
- In the past, Peter Kelle's tire dealership in Baton Rouge sold an average of 1,000 radials each year. In the past 2 years, 240 and 240, respectively were sold in fall, 350 and 320 in winter,150 and165 in spring, and 340 and 195 in summer. With a major expansion planned, Kelle projects sales next year to increase to 1,200 radials. Based on next year's projected sales, the demand for each season is going to be (enter your responses as whole numbers): Fall: Winter: Spring: Summer:In the past, Peter Kelle's tire dealership in Baton Rouge sold an average of 1,000 radials each year. In the past 2 years, 220 and 250, respectively were sold in fall, 360 and 320 in winter, 145 and 175 in spring, and 300 and 230 in summer. With a major expansion planned, Kelle projects sales next year to increase to 1,200 radials. Based on next year's projected sales, the demand for each season is going to be (enter your responses as whole numbers): Season Demand Fall nothingThe Holt method (exponential smoothing with trend andwithout seasonality) is being used to forecast weekly carsales at TOD Ford. Currently, the base is estimated to be 50cars per week, and the trend is estimated to be 6 cars perweek. During the current week, 30 cars are sold. Afterobserving the current week’s sales, forecast the number ofcars to be sold during the week that begins three weeks afterthe conclusion of the current week. Use a b 0.3.
- 1) A supermarket has experienced weekly demand of milk of D1 = 120, D2 = 127, D3 = 114, and D4 = 122 gallons over the past four weeks. Forecast demand for Period 5 using a four-period moving average. What is the forecast error if demand in Period 5 turns out to be 125 gallons? 2) Consider the supermarket in Example 7-1, in which weekly demand for milk has been D1 = 120, D2 = 127, D3 = 114, and D4 = 122 gallons over the past four weeks. Forecast demand for Period 5 using weighted average method. Assign weights yourself.Sarah has been custom manufacturing sweaters now for 7 years. Her annual sales are shown below. Year Sales 1 178 2 215 3 233 4 301 5 337 6 330 7 361 What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 3 year moving average? What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using a 5 year weighted average where w1=.4, w2=.3, w3=.15, w4=.1, w5=.05? What are her forecasted sales for year 8 using exponential smoothing? Assume year 7 forecast was 323. Select your own alpha. Which forecast method is the best for Sarah to use based on MAD? Why?The sales of XYZ company for the previous three perlods are 45, 42, and 43 respectively Entimate the sales of the fourth perlod by exponential smoothing with 0S.Ube nalve as a starting/initial forecast (Round to 2 declmats)
- Tom Glass forecasts electrical demand for the FlatlandsPublic Power District (FPPD). The FPPD wants to take itsComstock power plant out of service for maintenance whendemand is expected to be low. After shutdown, performingmaintenance and getting the plant back on line takes two weeks. The utility has enough other generating capacity tosatisfy 1,550 megawatts (MW) of demand while Comstockis out of service. Table 8.5 shows weekly peak demands(in MW) for the past several autumns. When next in year 6should the Comstock plant be scheduled for maintenance?A distributor uses the following equation for forecasting demand of ski goggles: Y = 834 + 18*t, where t=0 in Spring of 2013. Each season is a period, so Summer 2013 would be t=1. His seasonal relatives are (Fall=1.2; Winter=1.4; Spring = 0.9; Summer= 0.8). What is his seasonalized forecast for Spring 2014? Plz do fast asapCafe Michigan 's manager, Gary Stark, suspectsthat demand for mocha latte coffees depends on the price beingcharged. Based on historical observations, Gary has gathered thefollowing data, which show the numbers of these coffees sold oversix different price values:Using these data, how many mocha latte coffees would be forecastto be sold according to simple linear regression if the priceper cup were $2.80?