Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 1. Compute the four period moving average forecast for period 6 and 7. Assume the actual period for period 6 is 44. 7 Actual 42 41 39 43 45 F ? ?
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
- The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?Suppose that the demand in period 1 was 7 units and the demand in period 2 was 9 units. Assume that the forecast for period 1 was for 5 units. If the firm uses exponential smoothing with an alpha value of .20, what should be the forecast for period 3? (Round answers to two decimal places.)Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand for period 11. Let α = 0.5, � = 0.3, and let the initial trend value be 12 and the initial forecast be 200
- Sales for a product for the past three months have been 200,350, and 287. Use a three-month moving average to calculate aforecast for the fourth month. If the actual demand for month 4turns out to be 300, calculate the forecast for month 5Given an actual demand this period of 105, a forecast value for this period of 100, and an alpha of .4, what is the exponential smoothing forecast for next period?Forecast sales for the 7th period. For leveling, use exponential smoothing 0.20 and moving average 3 for averaging; and linear and exponential functions for trend data. Assume an initial exponential forecast of 60 units in period 2 if you decide to use it (i.e., no forecast for period 1). Period Demand 1 67 2 72 3 68 4 20 5 70 6 66 7 68
- Given the following demand data,a. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of .40 for the most recent period,. 30 for the next most recent, .20 for the next, and .10 for the next.b. If the actual demand for period 6 is 39, forecast demand for period 7 using the sameweights as in part a.Period Demand1 422 403 434 405 41Prepare a forecast for period 6 using each of the following approaches: Period 1 2 3 4 5 Demand 60 65 55 58 64 A three-period moving average. A weighted average using weights of .50 (most recent), .20 and .30. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of .40.Period Demand 1 40 2 40 3 43 4 41 5 41 A. The naive forecast for period 6 is __ B. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of .40 for the most recent period. .30 for the most recent, .30 for the next, the forecast for period 6 is __
